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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Johnson's NFL Week 5
CMJohnson1
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#1
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:54:18 PM
OVERALL RECORD:  11-8  (+3.7u)

Record vs. Spread:  7-4  (+2.9u)
Record vs. O/U:  3-3  (+2.6u)
Record vs. ML  1-1  (-1.8u)

=============================================================

Very solid 5-1 week in Week 4...only loss was Tampa Bay who got too far behind against the Redskins.  Tough schedule on board for Week 5...starting to get a good feeling for the season, and with the actual refs back in action it should be a little more consistent.

Week 5 Projected Lines and Totals:


Arizona  -7.5    41

Cincinnati  -4     44

Green Bay   -8    45.5

Baltimore   -9    40

Atlanta   -5.5    48.5

NY Giants    -7.5     44.5

Pittsburgh    -1.5     42.5

Seattle  -1    44

Chicago   -7.5     40

Minnesota   -5.5    43.5

New England    -6    51

San Francisco   -8     44.5

San Diego  -3.5    49

Houston  -2.5     45.5
quote
CMJohnson1
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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:05:46 AM
Week 5 Power Rankings:

1.  Atlanta Falcons  (1)  -  Hung tough the entire way against a fiesty Carolina team...300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing...defense came up big late when they needed it.  Gotta keep them as the best.

2.  Houston Texans  (2)  -  Defense stepped up nicely, but still gave up a lot of rushing yards.  Good divisional win.

3.  San Francisco 49ers  (3)  -  Keeping them ahead of the Cardinals for another week after a massively impressive win on the road.  Once they get some home games under their belt they should continue to be one of the team's to beat in the NFC.

4.  Baltimore Ravens  (5)  -  Moving them ahead of the Cardinals...both teams have primarily played home games to this point in the season, but the Ravens have a better point differential and the Cardinals struggled.

5.  Arizona Cardinals  (4)  -  After almost losing at home to the Dolphins you have to move them back down a spot.  Still undefeated though, and the defense continues to come through.

6.  New England Patriots  (8)  -  Got back to basics against the Bills on the road and got back on the higher end of the power rankings.  Probably a little bit of homerism here, but they are still a damn good team.

7.  Chicago Bears  (7)  -  All they do is crank out impressive wins.  If Jay Cutler can avoid making a lot of mistakes and the defense continues to force turnovers, they will be a team nobody wants to play in December and beyond.

8.  Minnesota Vikings  (16)  -  2nd straight week of having the biggest move up the rankings.  Another impressive road victory against the Lions.  Very good defense and an offense that is built around the run and basic passes....a lot like the 49ers of last year.

9.  San Diego Chargers  (12)  -  Got back on track after the weak performance against the Falcons.  Mathews is looking a little more stable in the backfield, and Jackie Battle has been impressive as well.

10.  Cincinnati Bengals  (17)  -  The sign of a playoff caliber team is that they are able to go on the road and beat the teams that on paper they should beat.  With wins against the Redskins and Jaguars on the road, and games against Miami and Cleveland ahead, they should be 5-1 heading into a great game against the Steelers.

11.  Philadelphia Eagles  (14)  -  How in the world does a 3-1 team have a point differential of -17?  By far the least impressive of the 3-1 teams.  Still got a good victory over the Giants on Sunday Night however.

12.  Green Bay Packers  (9)  -  Moving them back a few spots because I would have liked to see them come out and dominate the Saints.  It didn't happen, but they are right behind the Patriots as far as the 2-2 teams out there.

13.  NY Giants  (6)  -  One of the biggest dropoffs this week.  Bad loss against the division rival Eagles.  The have a lot of problems that haven't showed up at the best times.

14.  Denver Broncos  (20)  -  That's the win that they were looking for...finally got Manning going in the right direction, but this week's test against the Patriots will tell a lot.

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers  (15)  -  No reason to move them anywhere with a bye week.

16.  Washington Redskins  (23)  -  Great win against the Bucs.  Defense looked a little bit better, which is nice without Orakpo and Carriker.

17.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (21)  -  Best of the 1-3 teams?  They only have a -9 point differential so far.  Damn tough team to figure out.

18.  Dallas Cowboys  (11)  -  Wow...another ugly behind game.  Problem is, it was at home on national television.  Romo threw 5 interceptions, and they are looking very bad on defense.

19.  Detroit Lions  (19)  -  Probably should have moved them lower, but there were just too many teams that looked a lot worse than they did.

20.  Carolina Panthers  (22)  -  Loved how feisty they played against the Falcons.  Newton needs to step up his game big time to make the big move.

21.  Seattle Seahawks  (18)  -  Not a good week after the emotional Monday Night win.  Makes you remember real fast that Russell Wilson is still a rookie.

22.  Buffalo Bills  (13)  -  Remember when I said the defense reeled it in nicely?  Well, 52 points against the Patriots will change that really fast.

23.  NY Jets  (10)  -  Biggest fall back in the rankings, they just looked completely lost against the Niners.  Revis being out will kill them in the long run as well.

24.  St. Louis Rams  (28)  -  Very very nice win against the Seahawks.  They have played well in just about every game.

25.  Indianapolis Colts  (25)  -  Same as the Steelers, not moving them on a bye week.

26.  Jacksonville Jaguars  (24)  -  Not a lot of things that looked that great this week. 

27.  Miami Dolphins  (27)  -  Would have been great to go on the road and get a huge win against the Cardinals and one of the best defenses in the league.  Once again, Tannehill has looked better every game so far.  8 sacks against Kolb was also nice, but they have to come away with a win.

28.  New Orleans Saints  (30)  -  Played a decent enough game to win on the road against the Packers, just couldn't get the job done late.

29.  Kansas City Chiefs  (31)  -  They get moved up two spots simply because of how badly the Titans and Raiders played.  They still cannot compete in this league with Matt Cassell playing the way he is.

30.  Oakland Raiders  (29)  -  2nd worst point differential in the league...terrible performance against the Broncos, and it's not going to get easier for them.

31.  Tennessee Titans  (26)  -  I know I said they will fight every single week, but that might have been very untrue.  Chris Johnson finally hit 100 yards, but they are giving up 38 points per game.

32.  Cleveland Browns  (32)  -  Tried really hard to get out of the basement of the rankings with a decent performance against the Ravens.  18 points a game is not going to win this team much.
quote
CMJohnson1
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#3
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:06:17 AM
Already looking hard at the Cardinals -1...they sure seem a lot better than the Rams right now.
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#4
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:52:31 AM
Good luck bud
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#5
Posted: 10/2/2012 2:06:29 AM
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#6
Posted: 10/2/2012 2:13:39 AM
 be careful w/the cardinals.
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CMJohnson1
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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:55:49 AM
I know...it's such an obvious pick
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CMJohnson1
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#8
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:34:01 PM
So far the only plays that are off by 3 points or more are...

Arizona -1
Baltimore -6  (KC is really bad)
Balty vs KC U46.5  (Can KC put up close to 20?)
Seattle +3  (Probably underrating how bad they are on the road)
San Diego +3.5  (Has New Orleans already given up?)
Houston -2.5  (Huge public play)
Houston vs Jets O41.5  (Can see the Texans putting up 30)
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#9
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:37:26 PM
Are you saying you like the Jets Monday night with your projected lines?

Love Seattle ML...................gl...............
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CMJohnson1
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#10
Posted: 10/3/2012 6:06:56 PM
9 points is tempting...but I just don't see them getting enough offense
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#11
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:33:57 AM
New England Patriots -6.5  (2.2 to win 2)

Had to take this number under a touchdown.  The Patriots showed last week the balance and domination that this offense can provide.  Defensively they are still not close to where they need to be, but still improving.  The home favorites certainly tend to dominate in this series...and Peyton Manning enjoys throwing to the Patriots cornerbacks in most of their meetings.  Brady will put up enough points to take this one down.

Prediction:  Patriots 35  Broncos 24
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#12
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:38:47 AM
Pittsburgh Steelers ML  (1.7 to win 1)

Going a little softer here on the spread because I can't commit to the 3.5 points, and I also don't feel that great about the Eagles getting points.  The Steelers have two weeks of rest, and are finally healthy, and will be looking at this game to get back into the divisional battle with the Ravens and Bengals.  The Steelers win at home...and that's what I'm riding with.

Prediction:  Steelers 21  Eagles 17
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#13
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:55:46 AM
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CMJohnson1
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#14
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:38:38 PM
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#15
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:40:46 PM
BOL this week bud love your work always and really enjoy reading what you have to say
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CMJohnson1
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#16
Posted: 10/6/2012 1:11:22 AM
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#17
Posted: 10/6/2012 1:18:33 AM
Gl Johnson
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CMJohnson1
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#18
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:00:37 AM
Cleveland Browns +9.5  (2.2 to win 2)

Was waiting for a while to get this line high enough to be tasty.  The Browns have been feisty the past couple weeks, and have shown an ability to hang tough late in games.  The Giants continue to struggle to show dominance at home.  0-6 ATS at home as favorites with this spread...no reason to think that it will continue.  Can't see the Browns winning the game because they are still the Browns...but they should keep it within a touchdown.

Prediction:  Giants 23  Browns 16
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#19
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:59:34 PM
BROWNS/GIANTS  IS D SET UP GAME OF THE WEEK!

BROWNS IS THE PICK!
CMJ buddy

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CMJohnson1
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#20
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:30:45 AM
Thanks man...really not seeing much else that I like.
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#21
Posted: 10/7/2012 2:53:40 AM
BOL on your plays man
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#22
Posted: 10/7/2012 2:58:40 AM
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#23
Posted: 10/7/2012 3:08:33 AM
Pats
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#24
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:28:50 AM
Good luck to everyone today...not a very high volume pick week, too many close calls in my opinion
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#25
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:34:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Pittsburgh Steelers ML  (1.7 to win 1)

Going a little softer here on the spread because I can't commit to the 3.5 points, and I also don't feel that great about the Eagles getting points.  The Steelers have two weeks of rest, and are finally healthy, and will be looking at this game to get back into the divisional battle with the Ravens and Bengals.  The Steelers win at home...and that's what I'm riding with.

Prediction:  Steelers 21  Eagles 17

If you see the Steelers winning 21-17 then lay the 3.5!!!

I know you aren't comfortable with it but isn't every NFL line made to make you feel that way. Too much juice on the ML for me. It's Pitt straight up laying the 3.5 and I'll take my chances. I think you should reconsider it if you haven't locked these in yet given you think they'll win by 4 anyhow.
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