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[NFL Betting] Topic: Pure Discretionary System Plays - Week 3 |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#1 Posted: 9/18/2012 11:16:42 PM
That said, I will be posting both my NCAAF picks and NFL picks in both threads so hopefully people can make an extra buck if they trust me in college football - which they most certainly should.
Will be back in a bit with considerations. |
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Burly |
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#2 Posted: 9/18/2012 11:25:09 PM keep it going
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BigRich72 |
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#3 Posted: 9/18/2012 11:33:50 PM  |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#4 Posted: 9/19/2012 12:11:34 AM
Iowa Kentucky Army Rice UNC Temple Oregon State*** California Arkansas WKU Colorado State Michigan Oklahoma Florida State New Mexico San Diego State Utah Air Force |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#5 Posted: 9/19/2012 12:21:41 AM
Carolina/NYG Chicago/STL San Fran/Minn Cincin/Washington Philly/Arizona GB/Seattle
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coatsman |
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#6 Posted: 9/19/2012 9:07:50 AM
For Thursdays game , I have seen opening lines of -2.5 NYG to pk.....with -1 on covers right now.
For me its difficult to track line movement accurately as I try to follow several sources. For your strategy, have you narrowed down your sources or recommend some that may help opening lines movement up until game time?
I am interested in your thought process for Thursdays game.
Right now, we have a road favorite, little or no line movement and an indifferent public on sides.
Good luck everyone.
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shot-calla |
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#7 Posted: 9/19/2012 10:32:44 AM |
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luckyly |
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#8 Posted: 9/19/2012 12:06:42 PM  |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#9 Posted: 9/19/2012 12:50:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyly: dont do many teasrs,,but,,great spot for bears,49 and zona..............
Me neither. From what i understand, game results rarely end within the teased range, i.e. if you tease a team by 7, either that team will cover the original spread, or fail to cover the teased portion. In my opinion, it's a psychological game. But I do agree that there are occasional situations where it may look like a good risk/reward situation, and the teaser you proposed does look good on paper. I guess the only "devil's advocate" point I can make is, say you took all three of those bets straight up (which at this point I believe to be pretty decent plays), you can go 2 for 3 and be profitable. Whereas, imagine that 1 team that didnt cover, ended up actually getting blown out -- well your teaser would be a straight loser. Youre depending on 3 different outcomes. I think you're better off making 1 straight bet. It just depends on your risk tolerance i guess. And like parlays, i guess teasers offer value in certain situations.... |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#10 Posted: 9/19/2012 12:51:48 PM |
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#11 Posted: 9/19/2012 4:17:08 PM
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tidefever79 |
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#12 Posted: 9/19/2012 7:05:40 PM |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#13 Posted: 9/20/2012 1:22:33 AM
Carolina -1 (Unit I) NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Unit I)
I am VERY confident abut both these plays. |
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AllNumbers13 |
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#14 Posted: 9/20/2012 2:07:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AllNumbers13: 1st play:
Carolina -1 (Tier I) NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Tier I)
I am VERY confident abut both these plays. |
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#15 Posted: 9/20/2012 7:51:25 AM  |
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#16 Posted: 9/20/2012 10:59:17 AM |
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#17 Posted: 9/20/2012 11:36:54 AM |
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#18 Posted: 9/20/2012 11:39:20 AM
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AllNumbers13 |
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#19 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:07 PM |
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#20 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:36 PM |
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#21 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:33:19 PM
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#22 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:43:48 PM |
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HowardLangston |
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#23 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:45:09 PM im holding off on locking this in at -2.5
I am hoping come closing to gametime a bunch of the public will start jumping on giants +the points moving the line back closer to 1. I am simly hoping this tho and will take carolina -3 if it continues to move the wrong direction. There is a lot of time left in the betting day and a bunch of recreational bettor wont be betting until closer to gametime. |
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coatsman |
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#24 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:49:27 PM
I'm not one to follow numbers like your system eludes to but it appears to work most of the time. I had trouble with this game. I'm probably going +2.5 NYG.
A somewhat similar situation happened week 1 where San Diego started as a -1 Favorite over Oakland with Oakland becoming a -1 favorite as the game approached. Plus there was minimal public on the side of SD. This resulted in a dog win by 8
Tonight's game is similar with NYG becoming a dog....and a low public split. Watching the numbers indicates that the side might be NYG.
Tough game. Injuries, short week plus I only have one example from this year that this occurred to go by.
Good luck everyone.
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FadeOnly |
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#25 Posted: 9/20/2012 12:56:30 PM |
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