Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Pure Discretionary System Plays - Week 3
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#1
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:16:42 PM
Hey, going to try and go easy on the posting this week, but that doesn't mean I will not be following the spreads religiously throughout the week. 

That said, I will be posting both my NCAAF picks and NFL picks in both threads so hopefully people can make an extra buck if they trust me in college football - which they most certainly should. 


Will be back in a bit with considerations. 
quote
Burly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Burly
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 639
Location: Canada
#2
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:25:09 PM

keep it going

quote
BigRich72 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
BigRich72
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 473
Location: Louisiana
#3
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:33:50 PM
BOL 
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#4
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:11:34 AM
In College Football, I will be focusing on the following games for now:

Iowa 
Kentucky 
Army 
Rice
UNC
Temple 
Oregon State***
California 
Arkansas
WKU
Colorado State
Michigan 
Oklahoma
Florida State
New Mexico 
San Diego State
Utah 
Air Force
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#5
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:21:41 AM
In NFL, I will be focusing on (for now):


Carolina/NYG
Chicago/STL
San Fran/Minn
Cincin/Washington
Philly/Arizona
GB/Seattle

quote
coatsman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
coatsman
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 14
Location: Ontario
#6
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:07:50 AM
Hey. Good stuff the last couple weeks. 

For Thursdays game , I have seen opening lines of -2.5 NYG to pk.....with -1 on covers right now. 

For me its difficult to track line movement accurately as I try to follow several sources. For your strategy, have you narrowed down your sources or recommend some that may help opening lines movement up until game time?

 I am interested in your thought process for Thursdays game. 

Right now, we have a road favorite, little or no line movement and an indifferent public on sides. 

Good luck everyone. 


quote
shot-calla send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shot-calla
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 353
Location:
#7
Posted: 9/19/2012 10:32:44 AM
Keep up the good work All numbers......ur awesome
quote
luckyly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
luckyly
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 2980
Location: Indiana
#8
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:06:42 PM
dont do many teasrs,,but,,great spot for bears,49 and zona..............
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#9
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:50:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyly:

dont do many teasrs,,but,,great spot for bears,49 and zona..............


Me neither. From what i understand, game results rarely end within the teased range, i.e. if you tease a team by 7, either that team will cover the original spread, or fail to cover the teased portion. In my opinion, it's a psychological game. But I do agree that there are occasional situations where it may look like a good risk/reward situation, and the teaser you proposed does look good on paper. I guess the only "devil's advocate" point I can make is, say you took all three of those bets straight up (which at this point I believe to be pretty decent plays), you can go 2 for 3 and be profitable. Whereas, imagine that 1 team that didnt cover, ended up actually getting blown out -- well your teaser would be a straight loser. Youre depending on 3 different outcomes. I think you're better off making 1 straight bet. It just depends on your risk tolerance i guess. And like parlays, i guess teasers offer value in certain situations.... 
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#10
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:51:48 PM
 burly, bigrich, coatsman, shotcalla
quote
Spida send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spida
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 29
Location:
#11
Posted: 9/19/2012 4:17:08 PM
Thanks for the great posts!
quote
tidefever79 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
tidefever79
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 56
Location: Alabama
#12
Posted: 9/19/2012 7:05:40 PM
AN13 if you don't mind me asking,what is your insight on the Oregon and Arizona game?
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#13
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:22:33 AM
1st play:

Carolina -1 (Unit I) 
NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Unit I) 


I am VERY confident abut both these plays. 
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#14
Posted: 9/20/2012 2:07:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AllNumbers13:

1st play:

Carolina -1 (Tier I) 
NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Tier I) 


I am VERY confident abut both these plays. 
quote
tiasman send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tiasman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 3642
Location:
#15
Posted: 9/20/2012 7:51:25 AM
BOL  
quote
shot-calla send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shot-calla
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 353
Location:
#16
Posted: 9/20/2012 10:59:17 AM
Goodluck allnumbers.......like that play also.....u the man!!
quote
Spida send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spida
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 29
Location:
#17
Posted: 9/20/2012 11:36:54 AM
quote
Spida send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spida
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 29
Location:
#18
Posted: 9/20/2012 11:39:20 AM
my books got the line at Carolina -2.5.  What are your thoughts?
quote
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllNumbers13
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 554
Location: New York
#19
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:07 PM
I would definitely take Carolina at -2.5, but if you are willing to lay a little more juice to be extra safe, i think Carolina ML is really strong. 
quote
halofan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
halofan
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2952
Location:
#20
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:36 PM
BOL
quote
PUNKCASH send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PUNKCASH
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 175
Location:
#21
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:33:19 PM
Same here...-2.5

quote
shot-calla send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shot-calla
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 353
Location:
#22
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:43:48 PM
same here....
quote
HowardLangston send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
HowardLangston
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 820
Location: Minnesota
#23
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:45:09 PM

im holding off on locking this in at -2.5

I am hoping come closing to gametime a bunch of the public will start jumping on giants +the points moving the line back closer to 1.  I am simly hoping this tho and will take carolina -3 if it continues to move the wrong direction.  There is a lot of time left in the betting day and a bunch of recreational bettor wont be betting until closer to gametime.

quote
coatsman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
coatsman
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 14
Location: Ontario
#24
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:49:27 PM
Good luck tonight.   Going -1 on Carolina is probably the right way to go. 

I'm not one to follow numbers like your system eludes to but it appears to work most of the time.  I had trouble with this game.  I'm probably going +2.5 NYG. 

A somewhat similar situation happened week 1 where San Diego started as a -1 Favorite over Oakland with Oakland becoming a -1 favorite as the game approached.  Plus there was minimal public on the side of SD. This resulted in a dog win by 8

Tonight's game is similar with NYG becoming a dog....and a low public split.  Watching the numbers indicates that the side might be NYG. 

Tough game. Injuries, short week plus I only have one example from this year that this occurred to go by. 

Good luck everyone. 


quote
FadeOnly send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
FadeOnly
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 14457
Location: Pennsylvania
#25
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:56:30 PM
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.