Pure Discretionary System Plays - Week 3

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Pure Discretionary System Plays - Week 3
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:16:42 PM
Hey, going to try and go easy on the posting this week, but that doesn't mean I will not be following the spreads religiously throughout the week. 

That said, I will be posting both my NCAAF picks and NFL picks in both threads so hopefully people can make an extra buck if they trust me in college football - which they most certainly should. 


Will be back in a bit with considerations. 
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:25:09 PM

keep it going

BigRich72 PM BigRich72
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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:33:50 PM
BOL 
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:11:34 AM
In College Football, I will be focusing on the following games for now:

Iowa 
Kentucky 
Army 
Rice
UNC
Temple 
Oregon State***
California 
Arkansas
WKU
Colorado State
Michigan 
Oklahoma
Florida State
New Mexico 
San Diego State
Utah 
Air Force
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:21:41 AM
In NFL, I will be focusing on (for now):


Carolina/NYG
Chicago/STL
San Fran/Minn
Cincin/Washington
Philly/Arizona
GB/Seattle

coatsman PM coatsman
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Posted: 9/19/2012 9:07:50 AM
Hey. Good stuff the last couple weeks. 

For Thursdays game , I have seen opening lines of -2.5 NYG to pk.....with -1 on covers right now. 

For me its difficult to track line movement accurately as I try to follow several sources. For your strategy, have you narrowed down your sources or recommend some that may help opening lines movement up until game time?

 I am interested in your thought process for Thursdays game. 

Right now, we have a road favorite, little or no line movement and an indifferent public on sides. 

Good luck everyone. 


shot-calla PM shot-calla
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Posted: 9/19/2012 10:32:44 AM
Keep up the good work All numbers......ur awesome
luckyly PM luckyly
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:06:42 PM
dont do many teasrs,,but,,great spot for bears,49 and zona..............
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:50:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyly:

dont do many teasrs,,but,,great spot for bears,49 and zona..............


Me neither. From what i understand, game results rarely end within the teased range, i.e. if you tease a team by 7, either that team will cover the original spread, or fail to cover the teased portion. In my opinion, it's a psychological game. But I do agree that there are occasional situations where it may look like a good risk/reward situation, and the teaser you proposed does look good on paper. I guess the only "devil's advocate" point I can make is, say you took all three of those bets straight up (which at this point I believe to be pretty decent plays), you can go 2 for 3 and be profitable. Whereas, imagine that 1 team that didnt cover, ended up actually getting blown out -- well your teaser would be a straight loser. Youre depending on 3 different outcomes. I think you're better off making 1 straight bet. It just depends on your risk tolerance i guess. And like parlays, i guess teasers offer value in certain situations.... 
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:51:48 PM
 burly, bigrich, coatsman, shotcalla
Spida PM Spida
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Posted: 9/19/2012 4:17:08 PM
Thanks for the great posts!
tidefever79 PM tidefever79
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:05:40 PM
AN13 if you don't mind me asking,what is your insight on the Oregon and Arizona game?
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/20/2012 1:22:33 AM
1st play:

Carolina -1 (Unit I) 
NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Unit I) 


I am VERY confident abut both these plays. 
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/20/2012 2:07:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AllNumbers13:

1st play:

Carolina -1 (Tier I) 
NYG/Carolina Under 50 (Tier I) 


I am VERY confident abut both these plays. 
tiasman PM tiasman
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Posted: 9/20/2012 7:51:25 AM
BOL  
shot-calla PM shot-calla
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Posted: 9/20/2012 10:59:17 AM
Goodluck allnumbers.......like that play also.....u the man!!
Spida PM Spida
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Posted: 9/20/2012 11:36:54 AM
Spida PM Spida
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Posted: 9/20/2012 11:39:20 AM
my books got the line at Carolina -2.5.  What are your thoughts?
AllNumbers13 PM AllNumbers13
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:07 PM
I would definitely take Carolina at -2.5, but if you are willing to lay a little more juice to be extra safe, i think Carolina ML is really strong. 
halofan PM halofan
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:36 PM
BOL
PUNKCASH PM PUNKCASH
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:33:19 PM
Same here...-2.5

shot-calla PM shot-calla
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:43:48 PM
same here....
HowardLangston PM HowardLangston
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:45:09 PM

im holding off on locking this in at -2.5

I am hoping come closing to gametime a bunch of the public will start jumping on giants +the points moving the line back closer to 1.  I am simly hoping this tho and will take carolina -3 if it continues to move the wrong direction.  There is a lot of time left in the betting day and a bunch of recreational bettor wont be betting until closer to gametime.

coatsman PM coatsman
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:49:27 PM
Good luck tonight.   Going -1 on Carolina is probably the right way to go. 

I'm not one to follow numbers like your system eludes to but it appears to work most of the time.  I had trouble with this game.  I'm probably going +2.5 NYG. 

A somewhat similar situation happened week 1 where San Diego started as a -1 Favorite over Oakland with Oakland becoming a -1 favorite as the game approached.  Plus there was minimal public on the side of SD. This resulted in a dog win by 8

Tonight's game is similar with NYG becoming a dog....and a low public split.  Watching the numbers indicates that the side might be NYG. 

Tough game. Injuries, short week plus I only have one example from this year that this occurred to go by. 

Good luck everyone. 


FadeOnly PM FadeOnly
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Posted: 9/20/2012 12:56:30 PM
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