Is a big performance in week 1 meaningful ?

Isn't life grand, The NFL is Back !!!

Let's look at teams who produce the best performances in week 1.

To do this I will rank the top 3 performances based on my power ratings the past 4 years..............................................

2008

1. Atlanta  8.99 finished 11-5 from 4-12 in 2007, 7 game improvement, wild card playoff team

2. Tenn 8.45 finished 13-3 from 10-6 in 2007, 3 game improvement, Division winner , no.1 seed in playoffs.

3. Pitt 7.62  finished 12-4 from 10-6 in 2007, Division winner, no 2 seed and Super Bowl Champs.

2009

1. Jets 10.22 finished 9-7 from 9-7 in 2008, wild card playoff team, led at halftime of the AFC Championship game before losing.

2. Saints 7.79 finished  13-3 from 8-8 in 2008. Division winner,  No. 1 seed and Super Bowl Champs

3. Eagles 7.51 finished 11-5 from 9-6-1 in 2008. Tied for division but lost the tiebreaker, wild card playoff team.

2010 

1. Da Bears 7.2, finished 11-5 from 7-9 in 2009, Division winner, no. 2 seed, lost in NCF Championship game.

2. Tenn 6.6, finished 6-10 from 8-8 in 2009, out of playoffs.

3. Pats 6.02, finished 14-2 from 10-6 in 2009, Division winner, no. 1 seed, lost opening playoff game.

2011 

1. Ravens 12.54, finished 12-4 from 12-4, Division winner, no. 2 seed, lost in AFC Championship game.

2. Bills 8.47, finished 6-10 from 4-12 in 2010, out of playoffs.

3. 49ers 7.84, finished 13-3 from 6-10 in 2010, division winner no.2 seed, lost in NFC Championship game.

Of the top 3 performances in week 1................

 10 of 12 teams made the playoffs

9 of 12 teams improved in wins from the previous year, 2 teams remained the same and just 1 of 12 teams lost more games than the year before.

7 of 12 teams were division winners with an 8th team, 2009 Eagles tieing for division crown but losing on tiebreaker. 2 division winners in 3 of the 4 years.

Here's a pretty impressive result..................6 of 12 (50%)teams made the conference championship game, wow. At least 1 team made the championship game each seasons with 2 teams making it twice.

3 no.1 seeds in the 4 years.

2 Super Bowl winners in the 4 years with both the 49ers and Ravens last year who both were knocking bigtime on the door to make the SB. an easily could have won their respective games.

Here is something to watch closely this season.......................Each of the 4 seasons saw a team with an non-winning record from the previous year produce one of the biggest turnarounds in wins of any team in that season.

In 2008 Atlanta went from 4-12 to 11-5, a 7 game improvement

2009 saw Saints go from 8-8 to 13-3 a 5 game improvement

2010 was Da Bears going from 7-9 to 11-5, a 4 game improvement

2001 it was the niners 6-10 to 13-3, a 7 game improvement

Possible the 2 teams improving by 7 games was the 2 largest improvements any team in the league made in the 4 years and it was foretold by each teams big performance in week 1.

The info above would strongly suggest, that a big performance in week 1 is a pretty strong indicator of a very good season ahead.

I'll be back after all the games have finished with the top 3 performances for week 1, untill then boys............................................best of luck this season and enjoy what should be a very good season......................... 

Dallas --- 4.4 on my power rankings, not likely to be in the top 3.

However, multiply the 4.4 by 3 = 13.2 and this gives us the margin of victory in the game based on how much a team out-played it's opponents in the key stat battles which have a high correlation of winning games.

Dallas out-played the G-men and should of won by 13.2 pts, and now become undervalued by 6.2 pts per game while the G-men become overvalued by 6.2 pts.

WEEK 1 HAS SPOKEN ....................................

And it says the top 3 performances are.................

1. Pats - 12.91

2. Skins - 10.66

3. Bucs - 10.52

The common denominator of all 3 teams was.............dominating overall rushing performance and rushing defense.

Pats outrushed opp - 162-20

Skins - 153-32

Bucs - 130-10

The Bucs dominate rush defense limited opp to a .77 ave per rush, the best opening day performance since 1967.

The last team to limit it's opp to a ave rush of 1 yd or less  in week 1 was...................Da 2010 Bears, who parlayed that incredible week 1 performce and top 3 finish into a Division Title and trip to the NFC Championship game.

Will the Bucs do the same ?

I'll be riding these 3 teams untill proven otherwise, don't be surprised if the big surprise story of this season is Bucs or Skins, and a division title and/or trip to the NFC Championship game should not be all that surprising for 1 of these teams........................................

Let's check-in with our 3, week 1 big game performers.

2 of 3 division winners

2 of 3 playoff teams

2 of 3 teams improved in wins

We did it again, getting a team with a non-winning record from last year to produce one-of -the biggest turn-arounds in wins this season with the Skins going from 5-11 to 10-6, a 5 game improvement and becoming a big surprise story this season.

Bucs had a 3 game improvement, 4-12 to 7-9

Pats had a 1 game regression, 13-3 to 12-4

We didn't get a no.1 seed but did get a no.2 seed.

All 3 teams ended with winning ATS records with the Skins tied for the best ATS record in the league according to vegasinsiders at 11-5 and the Bucs not far behind at 9-5-2.  The Pats finished with a 9-7 ATS record.

An amazing 50% of these teams have reached the Championship games in the past 4 years, we should get at least 1 team, maybe 2 into the game, don't be surprised if the Skins become the big surprise story of the next couple of weeks.

All-in-all, not to bad . We'll follow the Skins and Pats and see how they do over the next few weeks.

 And keep this thread in mind for next season, I'll be back after game 1 with  the top 3 performances...........................................

Checking-in with the 3 week one teams finds we did get 1 team into the championship game.

This was a perfect situation for the hedge as one could have gotten a huge dog with the spread and had a chance for the middle.

All-in-all not to bad, we kept the string alive with 1 team with a losing record producing a big turnaround and we got at least 1 team into the championship game, all this based only on week 1.

This is a very nice method to score some nice futures early in the season.

I'll be back next season and we'll see if our week 1 dominte teams can  do it again............................untill then......................best of luck along the way.............................