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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: The Unconventional, Yet Profitable Thread
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#1
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:04:25 AM

As the title indicates, I plan on posting all of my plays (which are unconventional) in this thread. They will almost all be on moneyline favorites parlayed together in some fashion. I will mix in teasers, some totals, and very rarely an ATS play if I feel really good about it. Now I know I am going to get a lot of negative feedback for this strategy, but I would like to explain myself below. If you don't care to read this lengthy explanation, go ahead and blindly follow or tell me I’m an idiot :)


I've tried to beat the spreads like everyone else on here. What usually happens? You can have good runs and bad runs, but it is damn near impossible to hit somewhere around 53 or 54 percent without some kind of luck streak or a tremendous amount of time spent doing research. I know there are people on this site and others that post plays and hit at a 53% clip. That's awesome for them and I wish I could do it myself. That being said, I don't want to put a ridiculous amount of time into analyzing spreadsheets. These unconventional plays that I make don't require too much analysis.


Why try to get an edge on Vegas? All the stats and trends that you can look at, Vegas has already seen. Sure there are mistakes posted from time to time, but I'm not sharp enough to see them right away and take advantage. So, let's let Vegas be the sharp ones here. By relying on their sharpest of lines, I feel like I have a greater shot betting moneylines. For example, if a team is -8 and -420 on the moneyline, I can pair that with another team at the same odds. That will give me a line of -250 or something like that. Now, if Vegas is within 7 points of being right I will win my wager. 7 points!! How often will Vegas be more than 7 points off on a spread? Sure it happens, but with a little bit of research I think I can feel good about playing certain parlays like this with the hopes of making money. Bottom line, if Vegas is right, then we make money, and Vegas is right all the damn time.


The same logic applies to teasers as well. In a 3 team 10 point teaser we need Vegas to be off by 9 points or less, which is very safe in my opinion. I know teasers are always labeled as sucker bets so I won't try and defend them too much more than this. All I know is that they have been profitable for me in the past because I really focus on teasing through key numbers. Look up Wong teasers for more strategy on this. I won't play many, but when I play a teaser I usually feel very confident in it.


As for the totals, I will be brief. I like to look at the baseline totals and play those. Preferably I play the baseline totals of about 36-38 and take the under. For example, when 2 shitty offenses play each other I like to play the under because I know Vegas won't set it much lower than 34-36. This number range represents a sort of baseline for totals. They can't really set a total of 24, which is how most of us see a game like this going, ending something like 14-10. So I see this as a profitable wager.



That's basically it for defending myself. Now, I want to hear your guys' opinion on this topic. Feel free to rip me or agree with me. I really, truly do enjoy talking about strategies and breaking down expected values even if we aren't in agreement. I know some people on this forum feel like pros, but we really can learn a lot from each other just by having discussions in threads like this. My ultimate goal would be to have a few of you guys chime in each week and discuss plays with me. Maybe you know a certain team really well and you can steer me away from a bad bet I'm about to lock in, or vice versa you can suggest a winner and make us all some cash! I think that with each others help we can really turn a profit with this strategy.


So, positive or negative, let's start the discussion!

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#2
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:15:00 AM
just post ur picks and we will see
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#3
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:33:03 AM
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#4
Posted: 8/18/2012 11:14:04 AM
so it's never too early to start discussing week 1 right?   an initial play that i like is the texans ML parlayed with the eagles ML at -193. i know the juice is still terrible, but remember UNCONVENTIONAL!

any thoughts on that pick?
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#5
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:21:27 AM
ok, so i would like to set up some bankroll goals for this football season. i have done some math and came up with what i see as a lofty, yet possible goal.

if someone plays normal ATS at -110, then a win percentage of 55% would net them a 5% ROI according to the formulas i've seen for calculating this. now i will have to do some assuming here, but i would think that the normal bettor would place an average of 7 plays on any given weekend? i am including both college and pros in this estimate. i will also assume this happens 18 weekends a year because college starts early, and there are all kind of bowl games at the end of the year. that would make for 126 total bets in a football season.

now that we have that, i will calculate the profit that would be made at a 55% win clip over a 126 bet span. this season i will use an arbitrary $100 dollar bankroll just to keep the math simple. i have to estimate what the average bet size would be in this type of situation, which i will say should be around $3 dollars on average. i say this because most bets will probly be around 2 to 3 bucks with good BR management. with some 4 dollar wagers thrown in, i think it would average close to 3,  especially as the BR grows.

FINALLY, with all this considered, that would make for a grand total of  $19 dollars in profit! a 19% increase on the BR, definitely a respectable amount. i will try and achieve this goal for the season, an ending BR of $119 or higher. this would be equivalent to a normal ATS player hitting at 55% for the whole season.


any thoughts on this? is this too lofty of a goal? too easy? not possible? i know my estimating on play size and total games played isn't perfect so does anyone have a suggestion for improvements? i really like having a goal in mind because it makes the season all that more interesting.


Thanks for reading!
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#6
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:30:31 AM
Is it worth betting to win $19 for the whole season?
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#7
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:36:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Is it worth betting to win $19 for the whole season?


the 100 dollar starting bankroll is an arbitrary number just to keep the math easy. think of it as a percentage instead. it could be a $1000 dollar bankroll if you wanted it to be. in which case $190 in profit would be the goal for the situation i have laid out. see what i mean?
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#8
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:41:31 AM

Is winning $190 for the whole season worth betting? 

 

 

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#9
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:44:42 AM

Don't you have to win more than 55% of your bets to be profitable if you are betting at -200? 

Based on my math, you have to win 66% of time to break even. 

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#10
Posted: 8/27/2012 10:18:43 AM
That's exactly right. I'm trying to compare what I'm going to do this season to what a normal bettor will do betting against the spread at -110 juice. Basically I think I can replicate those results in a non conventional way. And yes, a 19% increase in bank roll in less than 5 months is definitely worth it.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#11
Posted: 8/27/2012 5:46:27 PM
I think Cleveland can keep this game close and possibly steal a win.  Not likely, but possible.  If they can put points on the board.  We really dont know how these guys will work yet so I wouldnt play it.  But their defense can keep phillies potent offense to a minimum I think.
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#12
Posted: 8/27/2012 6:44:59 PM
I'll be watching. 
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#13
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:17:58 PM
actually, 'vegas' is off by more than 7 points in 27% of their lines.
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#14
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:22:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

I think Cleveland can keep this game close and possibly steal a win.  Not likely, but possible.  If they can put points on the board.  We really dont know how these guys will work yet so I wouldnt play it.  But their defense can keep phillies potent offense to a minimum I think.


the more i look at it, the more i agree with you. i think this first week is a good spot for a 3 team 10 pt teaser instead. with tannehill starting week 1, i like the texans ML more and more. so a 10 pt teaser of texans at pick and min/jac under 48 seems good to me. i just need to find a solid 3rd team.

i know teasing through 0 isn't the most profitable strategy, but if it wins it wins. i like the patriots at +3.5 vs the titans after the 10 pts kick in. i like the bills +13 as well. i dont see the jets beating anyone by more than 10 points right now. the bills might win SU. another one that seems tasty is the steelers +11. they have to be out for revenge here.

any of those pop off the page?

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#15
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:23:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

actually, 'vegas' is off by more than 7 points in 27% of their lines.


does this count totals as well? or just spreads?
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#16
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:35:38 PM
I have been betting like this for 10 yrs doing sometimes 5 and 6 team parlays with the money lines and each season I clear 8k to 10k. I say go for it man you are not going to bet on str8 wagers against the spread. You will make a profit
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#17
Posted: 8/27/2012 9:48:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jeff356us:

I have been betting like this for 10 yrs doing sometimes 5 and 6 team parlays with the money lines and each season I clear 8k to 10k. I say go for it man you are not going to bet on str8 wagers against the spread. You will make a profit


thanks for the insight! i agree betting ATS and winning is really difficult. it takes A LOT of research and time, which not a lot of us have.
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#18
Posted: 8/28/2012 9:06:50 AM
I always thought that I was betting against you (the betting public) not Vegas. I thought that the lines were just to try to get the money as close as possible to both sides.


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Posted: 8/28/2012 11:12:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JoeToo:

I always thought that I was betting against you (the betting public) not Vegas. I thought that the lines were just to try to get the money as close as possible to both sides.



i'm not a pro or anything, but i think your last sentence is spot on. the way i understand it, when you are betting a game against the spread you are basically saying that you have handicapped the game at a different number than vegas has. so if they think the patriots will win by 6, but your system says they will actually win by 7, then you should take the -6 and bet against vegas essentially.

i have often heard people say they bet "against the public", but they don't literally mean the public is booking their bets. they are simply fading common public perception of a team, which happens a lot with favorites such as the steelers, packers, patriots etc. the way i understand it though, simply fading the public is not enough to be a profitable player long term.
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Posted: 8/28/2012 11:35:22 AM
IN CAPPING I USE PTS PER YARD AND YDS PER RUSH IT WAS ALWAYS SAID A TEAM THAT CAN CONTROLL THE LINE OF SCRIMAGE WILL WIN MORE THAN LOSE.TRENDS+STATS ARE GD.ONLY IF YOU USE ALL YOU CAN FIND ON EACH TEAM AND SEE WHO HAS THE MOST POS.AND JUDGE FROM THAT YOU CAN ALWAYS FIND ONE STAT THAT FAVORS YOUR TEAM-DONT USE 1OR2 STATS
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#21
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:29:11 PM
whatever works


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#22
Posted: 8/28/2012 2:40:50 PM

Everyone has there own style. Vegas doesnt post mistakes ....I call them loopholes.

GL

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#23
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:39:25 PM

poketjjax:

Since 1989 the ROI (return of income) on two team teasers is minus12.82%; however, two team teasers can become a profitable investment if you add some parameters to your wager - see below.

Only bet on home teams

Only play on two team teasers if you can tease through the key numbers 3 and 7; for example, Home Favorites at 7.5 to 8.5 and Home Dogs at 1.5 to 2.5

Since 1989, the ROI on two team teasers with these parameters is +10.57%

Note, the lower the TOTAL on the game the higher the ROI. And one more suggestion for the highly cautious - avoid the first and last weeks of the season where results can be extremely unpredictable.

Maybe the key to winning money is to be extremely patient. Does anyone out there have any ATS trends that over all long period of time are money winners?

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#24
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:11:40 PM
i'm not sure if i should be discussing college football plays here as well, but with the season right around the corner i wanted to throw a play out that i have in mind.

i really like the ohio state/ navy/ nebraska moneylines all parlayed together to give me a line of -423. i realize this is A LOT of juice, but i am that confident that this will hit.

as always, thoughts?
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#25
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:04:37 AM
i'm about to lock in my first play of the season unless someone can talk me out of it.

it's a college football ML parlay consisting of...

Uconn/ west virginia/ ohio st/ nebraska  @ -483

i know the juice is crazy, but i don't see how this loses... do you?
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