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#1
Playoff record so far: 8-2. +9.6 stars Season 42-36 Minus 0.1 stars (last year playoff record 9-2)
Div. playoffs, '07, NE vs. Jax., Brady is his usual devastating self: 3 TDs 0 ints, QB rating 141.4. in a 31-21 win. Since then, however, his playoff performance has been a different story. Excluding the ridiculous Den. game this year, he has posted a mediocre QB rating of 68.9 with 7 TDs and 9 ints. since the '07 Jax game. Those games were: vs. SD, '07 conf. champ., NYGs, '08 SB, Bal, '09 WC round, Jets, '10, div. round, Bal, '11, conf. champ.round. He was 2-3 in those games, winning vs. SD in '07 and Bal, this year. The Pats back to back losses to the NYGs and the Steelers, weeks 8-9 this season, further illustrate NE's problems with muscular defenses.
I don't think this NE offense is as good as the '07 team either. They tear things up with their TEs, and Wes Welker, those three accounting for 75% of their passing ydg, but Randy Moss is gone and they have no equivalent deep threat. They are, however, fifth in the league in 40 yd.+ pass plays and second in yds per attempt. Their run game remains avg. at best with Green-Ellis and Ridley providing what punch they do have. The Pats do not have a legitimate FB on their roster.
The NE defense is a shadow of it's former self. Gone are Mike Vrabel, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, Ellis Hobbs, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison and many more. Their replacements are good NFL players, but the over all unit is nowhere near as competent. The big man in the middle, however, remains tough as ever. The Giants ability/inability to handle Vince Wilfork will have much to do with which team prevails.
NY is an almost impossible team to quantify on the basis of reg. season stats. They scored only one more TD than their opposition, (47-46. NE was +21 at 61-40) the rest of their stats are unimpressive and basically fall into line behind that number. A 7-7 record and just another team until week 15, the Giants have almost replicated their amazing metamorphosis act of '07. Hoeing a much more difficult row than the Pats in the playoffs, they have beaten Atl, GB in Lambeau and SF in Candlestick. Bradshaw and Jacobs are a solid 74/347 in their three playoff games so far, while that Giant D has allowed opposing RBs only 250 yds. in playoff action. Eli Manning is far from the most glamorous QB you will ever see, but he is getting the job done with a receiving corps that is far superior to the '07 crew, David Tyree and Plaxico's heroics notwithstanding. Their reg. season defense was inconsistent at best, mostly due to injuries, but finally got well late in the season and has solidified into a fearsome unit in the playoffs. Since week 15 they have allowed an avg. 13.4 ppg and only GB managed to score 20. NY's pass D has given up an avg. 216 ypg passing, while forcing almost 18 incomps per game on avg. T/O ratio is is a big +9 at 11-2.
As in life, football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately type of thing. NE is the most successful franchise in the NFL in recent years and they didn't get that way losing big games, though they have lost their share. I think the point spread on this game reflects how odds makers and bettors both have come to view the NFL in recent years, esp. this year. When it comes to Eli vs. Tom Terrific, there is no question where the money will be. When it comes to Brady vs.Osi, Tuck, Pierre-Paul, et al, I ain't so sure. I also like the Giants chances on offense. This is the best offense NY has had in some years vs. a team that gives tons of yardage if not points. Sooner or later that won't translate.
I will take the Giants +3. That leaves the O/U. Fifty-five would cover about 85% of NE's playoff games since '01. and all of NY's.except one. Frankly, I don't see this one getting that high. We could always have a shoot out, of course, but I think the odds favor a pretty close game and the under. I will post this as a NYG pick, but am sure I will put a little something on a NYG/under parlay.
NYG+3 vs. NE three stars
Div. playoffs, '07, NE vs. Jax., Brady is his usual devastating self: 3 TDs 0 ints, QB rating 141.4. in a 31-21 win. Since then, however, his playoff performance has been a different story. Excluding the ridiculous Den. game this year, he has posted a mediocre QB rating of 68.9 with 7 TDs and 9 ints. since the '07 Jax game. Those games were: vs. SD, '07 conf. champ., NYGs, '08 SB, Bal, '09 WC round, Jets, '10, div. round, Bal, '11, conf. champ.round. He was 2-3 in those games, winning vs. SD in '07 and Bal, this year. The Pats back to back losses to the NYGs and the Steelers, weeks 8-9 this season, further illustrate NE's problems with muscular defenses.
I don't think this NE offense is as good as the '07 team either. They tear things up with their TEs, and Wes Welker, those three accounting for 75% of their passing ydg, but Randy Moss is gone and they have no equivalent deep threat. They are, however, fifth in the league in 40 yd.+ pass plays and second in yds per attempt. Their run game remains avg. at best with Green-Ellis and Ridley providing what punch they do have. The Pats do not have a legitimate FB on their roster.
The NE defense is a shadow of it's former self. Gone are Mike Vrabel, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, Ellis Hobbs, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison and many more. Their replacements are good NFL players, but the over all unit is nowhere near as competent. The big man in the middle, however, remains tough as ever. The Giants ability/inability to handle Vince Wilfork will have much to do with which team prevails.
NY is an almost impossible team to quantify on the basis of reg. season stats. They scored only one more TD than their opposition, (47-46. NE was +21 at 61-40) the rest of their stats are unimpressive and basically fall into line behind that number. A 7-7 record and just another team until week 15, the Giants have almost replicated their amazing metamorphosis act of '07. Hoeing a much more difficult row than the Pats in the playoffs, they have beaten Atl, GB in Lambeau and SF in Candlestick. Bradshaw and Jacobs are a solid 74/347 in their three playoff games so far, while that Giant D has allowed opposing RBs only 250 yds. in playoff action. Eli Manning is far from the most glamorous QB you will ever see, but he is getting the job done with a receiving corps that is far superior to the '07 crew, David Tyree and Plaxico's heroics notwithstanding. Their reg. season defense was inconsistent at best, mostly due to injuries, but finally got well late in the season and has solidified into a fearsome unit in the playoffs. Since week 15 they have allowed an avg. 13.4 ppg and only GB managed to score 20. NY's pass D has given up an avg. 216 ypg passing, while forcing almost 18 incomps per game on avg. T/O ratio is is a big +9 at 11-2.
As in life, football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately type of thing. NE is the most successful franchise in the NFL in recent years and they didn't get that way losing big games, though they have lost their share. I think the point spread on this game reflects how odds makers and bettors both have come to view the NFL in recent years, esp. this year. When it comes to Eli vs. Tom Terrific, there is no question where the money will be. When it comes to Brady vs.Osi, Tuck, Pierre-Paul, et al, I ain't so sure. I also like the Giants chances on offense. This is the best offense NY has had in some years vs. a team that gives tons of yardage if not points. Sooner or later that won't translate.
I will take the Giants +3. That leaves the O/U. Fifty-five would cover about 85% of NE's playoff games since '01. and all of NY's.except one. Frankly, I don't see this one getting that high. We could always have a shoot out, of course, but I think the odds favor a pretty close game and the under. I will post this as a NYG pick, but am sure I will put a little something on a NYG/under parlay.
NYG+3 vs. NE three stars
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