bets2win - SUPERBOWL XLVI Breakdown:
Last years SuperBowl, I was fortunate enough to HAMMER Green Bay and the Over in every way possible, netting me a 5-0 Result. Hoping to do the same in this SuperBowl!!!
New York @ New England:
(+/- 3) (O/U 54):
The Giants were my initial pick, playing better, better defense, QB play at the highest its ever been, and you could argue that the Giants 'should be/could be' favored here. Well as the week went on, i began to listen to Pats backers with an open mind and they brought up some great points. The Patriots have been playing this entire season in the memory of Myra Kraft, hence the MHK on their uni's and theres no question that this game means a WHOLE LOT to Robert Kraft, Coach Belicheck and Tom. Say what you want about the "revenge factor not mattering" but IDC what you say, Bill and Tom got out-foxed and want their revenge! So for me, the emotional edge goes with the Pats, this game could taint Tom's legacy and IMO the Pats have a lot more to lose in this game, the Giants are over-acheiving as it it and are free-rolling IMHO. But usually once the game starts, emotions are out the window right? So lets break down some X's n O's.... the Giants got a lot of pressure back in 07, large in part to the fact that NE had a vertical passing game.... and like any vertical passing game, the WRs routes need time to develop, thus 5-7 step drops. I dont need to tell you but 5-7 step drops give Pass-Rushers A LOT more time to get to the passer than 3 step drops. Well the Pats offense is built on quicker drops and 3-5 step drops. Bradys ability to get rid of the ball quick will be the edge he needs to move the ball effectively and not get hit all day and 'feel pressure' that isnt even their (like hes done in the past). I believe Brady will be able to use his TEs and RBs outta the backfield to avoid getting hit too much. Now obviously the Giants will run some press coverage to thwart this quick-hits offense but the Giants will not be able to run press coverage when the TEs aren't flex out as WRs, in other words, when the TEs are kept in as Pass-Eligible Linemen on the line of scrimmage, the Giants will not be able to jam them 'as effectively', but i see them still getting a jam of some sort to slow down NEs timing and rythym. The LB play for the NYG's will be HUGE in my opinion, as theyre gonna need to play man-coverage often on the RBs outta the backfield and when NEs TEs are actually on the Line, their LBs will be forced into coverage. I believe NE will attempt to establish a RunningGame as well, so the Giants LBs will need to come up big to stop NEs rushing attack bc if Tom Brady begins to get respect in the Running Game, this will open up the PlayAction pass and make Tom virtually unstoppable. One last note about the Pats Offense, say what you want about Gronk's "fantom injury" or whatever, the guy is hurt! His ankle got bent like a MoFo, and he will not be at 100%. Gronk is a HUGE difference maker, if the Giants could just need to eliminate Welker and 1 TE, i believe they would have a large edge, but those 2 TEs really create mayhem. DO NOT Sleep on that Gronk injury, its very serious and if it gets twisted or hit hard, it could be a HUGE factor..... As for the Giants Offense, Eli will obviously be critical, hell need to continue to play at this very high level that hes been playing at lately. Bradshaw will also need to be effective, since he actually put together a decent game lastwk against SFs STOUT rush defense so he should be able to accrue 75+ yards against NEs rush defense, though Vince Wilfork is playing better, i believe Ahmad will still be enough of a factor to force NE to play the Run and open up the PA Pass for Eli. The Giants WRs are not only Deep in numbers, but these guys are so explosive, they can take a 5 yard out to the house! (see Victor Cruz against Dallas in Wk17) So New England will need to keep their Safeties over the top as much as the can. NEs secondary is thin as hell though, with Julian Edelman as their Nickelback, which technically would be Victor Cruz since hes the Giants Slot WR, i just dont see Belicheck being that stupid. So i expect to see Edelman on Manningham more often than not, which is STILL a good mismatch for Eli to take advantage of! The Patriots Defense still isnt very good, despite them playing better as of late, they still dont generate a pass-rush which will give Eli Manning time, and Eli with time is VERY dangerous, especially if his WRs get any sort of seperation which i believe they will do since theyre the quicker, faster, and just better players. I do believe the Pats have the edge at QB, i think their offensive weapons (other than QB) are a wash, i mean the NYG trio of WRs and the Pats Welker, combined with those TEs are pretty much all even. I do think NE has "more ways to beat you" but the Giants also have players who can "break it" on any given play. For me, this will come down to the team who can stop the opposing QB, and even though i think Tom will stiffle the Giants Pass-Rush with quick slants and quick outs and flares outta the backfield, i still think eventually the Giants will get pressure and rattle Toms cage a little. Both offenses will benefit from the turf, but the Giants Defensive Pass-Rush will really benefit from turf (i played DE and playing on turf is fuckin amazing when rushing the QB!)... The Giants were payed a little visit from Don Shula who basically explained to the Giants that this game could be the difference between relevance and "immortality". As motivated as the Pats are for revenge and MHK, the Giants will be as motivated, i do not believe that will effect the outcome. I just believe when its all said and done, with all factors considered, i think both teams will still score a good amount of points but the NYGs are just red-hot, not to suggest that NE isnt hot. I just believe the Giants are playing great on both sides of the football and Eli has the weapons to keep pace with Brady.... Heres a Quick Breakdown by Positions:
53 for 3 units
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