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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Defense Wins Championships?
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:38:16 AM

Not true in the NFL.

Great saying, catchy saying - but the stats just dont support it.

I have seen that phrase typed at covers the past 2 weeks a million times.

There are numerous great articles out there on the subject, but this one sums it up pretty nicely.

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#2
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:49:42 AM
seems to me, in this particular game, it is a moot point (from a capping perspective), since both teams ranked near the bottom in defense...
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#3
Posted: 2/3/2012 9:06:58 AM

not trying to be combative but i learned nothing from that article.  not a knock on vanzack

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#4
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:10:40 AM

It all depends how you look at the numbers. I do agree balance is important, good offense and good defense, however, how many offensive oriented teams with  poor defenses have won a SB versus defensive oriented with poor offense, the defesive teams have won more.

As far as the past ten years, well, I could show alot of info that teams simply are not as strong overall as years before.

 

Defense still wins championships, this year is a fluke because both the Giants and Pats were out-played by most every area that has a high correlation to winning games in the AFC/NFC championship games by defensive teams and were very, very fortunate to have both those teams win.

It might be the first time in history both teams out-played won, when I have more time I'll definately look into that.

Sometimes final scores are decptive, and those 2 games are perfect examples of this.

One year of two poor defensive teams getting to the SB does not prove anything.

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#5
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:45:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Not true in the NFL.

Great saying, catchy saying - but the stats just dont support it.

I have seen that phrase typed at covers the past 2 weeks a million times.

There are numerous great articles out there on the subject, but this one sums it up pretty nicely.

Yeah, Niners and Ravens should also win in Conference Championships if defense wins championship.

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theclaw
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#6
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:58:21 AM

Interesting, I was just on footballoutsiders site and according to their meterics, the Gmen's defense went from 20th to 2cd in the last 5 games, when the Giants defense improved and got stronger they roll into the SB, so there's your defensive team boys.....................................

 

If the Giants win this game and do it with defense, well...................................................................

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#7
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:58:43 AM
Scoring more points than your opponent wins championships. 
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#8
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:59:11 AM
Any opinions on this game vanzack?
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#9
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:10:23 AM
The best defense is a ball control offense. 
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#10
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:15:58 AM

The only Defense that truly won a Super Bowl was the '85 Bears.

That defense was just crazy...with no offense.(payton was non factor)

I never saw Montana, Staubach, Aikman tackle anyone.....

I watched as The Purple People Eaters and the Buffalo Bills TRIED to win 8 Super Bowls.....But they did'nt..!!!!!!!!!

Now Good Goaltending can win you a championship in the NHL.... But Not in the NFL

Pats 27    Giants 17

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#11
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:21:00 AM
defense wins playoff games and championships, regular season stats don't mean garbage
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#12
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:43:19 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by depeche2:

Any opinions on this game vanzack?

I (like everyone it seems) like the Giants.

Not big, but just a normal week 8 size wager on an average NFL game.

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#13
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:45:06 AM

I do think it will be funny if the Pats win by exactly 1 or 2 points....

That will be a monstrous bloodbath.

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#14
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:59:50 AM
Vanzack-
Good for you that you can bet a small amount on the Bowl, my addiction mandates that I go very large.

Also, I like the Giants way too much to make me feel comfortable.
I have spent far too much time looking at this game and last night, in the wee hours, I was reviewing all the Super Bowls over the last 10 years or so. I was shocked to see how many times these guys have been there.

Manning
Rothlisberger (could be argued Defense but I see him as a true top tier QB also)
Rodgers
Brady
Warner
Brees

and how few Hasselbacks  and Dilfers there were.
The NFL has changed. The great QB's or the guys that I think of as great QB's these days seem to keep popping up in the big game, over and over.
Like all rules, there are exceptions but this is the new norm. To get deep, you need a Grade I QB or a totally dominating D, that to me is the answer.
To me and this is to me, Eli is a grade I , this year. I so hope he plays like it on Sunday.
Good Luck bro
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#15
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:01:07 PM

Go G-men
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#16
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:04:11 PM
defense wins championships if you are the 200 ravens.  offense wins championships if you are the 2004 patriots or 2007 colts.  for the most part, other than that, it's matchups and coaching and line of scrimmage and other factors.  although i do give more emphasis to defense than offense when betting the larger spreads.
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#17
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:17:38 PM
But I also think that 55 is very high.....
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#18
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:37:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I (like everyone it seems) like the Giants.

Not big, but just a normal week 8 size wager on an average NFL game.



I'm on NE -2.5(-113), but I like it a little less now.
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#19
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:39:50 PM
perhaps a better way to phrase it:  "key defensive stops, allowing the offense to outscore the opponent wins championships".  No matter how good the offense is, if the defense can't get stops when it is needed, then the team will lose..... this was difference between the pats and the packers this year.... both defenses were horrendous in allowing yardage..... the pats however were able to prevent points from being but on the the board, the packers were not...
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#20
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:50:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:

Scoring more points than your opponent wins championships. 

Thank you, Tim McCarver.
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#21
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:54:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Chus:


Thank you, Tim McCarver.

Perfect, I love it when McCarver tries to tell us what the next pitch will be and is dead wrong like a complete boner...poor Joe Buck in those situations

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#22
Posted: 2/3/2012 1:16:49 PM
i dont think or recall many worse defenses than the Patriots playing in a super bowl (ie. 2nd to last worst pass defense (packers 2011) in NFL history.

ironically, i dont think there has been a better defensive coach schematically then theirs coaching in a super bowl.

this is a field goal game no matter how i slice it, so give me the field goal i guess
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#23
Posted: 2/3/2012 1:18:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I do think it will be funny if the Pats win by exactly 1 or 2 points....

That will be a monstrous bloodbath.

how do you know this for certain?   as for me, my biggest wager on this game is a prop bet that dwarfs my bet on the game.  i am laying -220 on giants to receive the ball.  risking 18 dimes.  the line should be more like -600.   

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#24
Posted: 2/3/2012 1:19:01 PM
Well, this year should have been a year that defense won championships.

Special Teams lost Championships in both leagues, it could be argued. 
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#25
Posted: 2/3/2012 2:23:25 PM

The modern day blueprint for creating a winner in the NFL is to get all of your offensive ducks in a row through the draft, then fit in a few pieces on defense. It can be argued that the late 90's Patriots were the original architects.

This method has since been employed by teams like the Colts, Saints, and Packers in recent years. Even the Steelers didn't return to prominence until they scrapped the defense wins championships mentality and turned to drafting offensive playmakers like Rothlisberger, Holmes, Wallace, and Brown.

Currnetly teams on the upswing using this blueprint include the Lions, Texans, and Falcons. Teams which abide by the old theory and neglect offense like the Browns and Jaguars are doomed to failure.

 

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