Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: sift that flour, roll that dough, buttermilk biscuits good to go!
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#1
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:46:57 AM
3-3 nfl playoffs

The most exciting weekend of the NFL season is here, I'm really looking forward to these match ups today and of course, getting sauced and betting on them, hahaha.  I'm going to the Tilted Kilt in Charlotte to watch the games today, kind of like a hooters but with better food.  Let's go to work:

I hope no one is putting too much stock in that pre-season game where the saints defense tee'd off on SF offensive line, b/c this group is certainly much more prepared, confident and will not be dealing with incessant crowd noise.  Alex Smith led the NFL with the fewest interceptions thrown by a starter with five. He's not going to try to compete with Brees for obvious reasons, but he should continue to protect the ball and continue to let the confidence between him, davis, crabtree manifest itself throughout this game. Much talk about NO run game, but let's not forget about the gore/hunter 1-2 punch either.  The saints defense has been pretty good stopping the run late in the season as well, so I don't see gore ripping off tons of yardage.  NO offense is what it is, dynamic and complex, luckily, SF has a ferocious front 7 to contend with NO superior O line.  SF can take the ball away and they aren't 13-3 b/c they went out every weekend and said - "Hey Alex - go outscore these guys".  So let's address the elephant in the room - the Saint's on grass.  So - let's simply take a look at what they have done on the road, on grass:  8 point loss to GB (only 9 more points scored in that one than the total posted today???), 13 point win at Jax (33 points), 6 point loss at TB (46 points), 3 point win at my Panthers (57 points), 5 point win at Tenn (39 points).  So, they scored 34,23,30,20,26 - average of 26 ppg - and I'm sure i don't need to point out that those defenses do not even come close to the caliber of SF.  So - I think SF will muddy this game up, give up some yards, not a ton of points, do enough on offense to posses the ball and stay in it until the end.  Oh by the way:  Teams that score 40-plus in the playoffs are 3-18 ATS the following week since 1996.
So, therefore:

SF +4
UNDER 47.5



I'm pretty sure Mr. Brady is not going to stand for a shitty performance at home in the playoffs again, but I'm not sure how much his defense is going to help him.  The game a few weeks ago was pretty close until the bronco's lost 3 fumbles in the 2nd quarter and Brady capitalized on every one of them.  Point is, the bonco's can move the ball on the pats garbage defense and like it or not, Tebow puts stress on the defense with linebackers/corners having to make multiple reads with the read option look the bronco's give.  The pats were only laying a TD in denver and now it's double that?  I think there is a bit of value here.  The pats have started rather slowly in games here lately and Tom Brady isn't exactly bullet proof in this position - He is 16-23 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (6-16 ATS since November 2007).  I'm not going against Tebow or John Fox - Fox is 7-2ats in the playoffs and I remember quite vividly the last time Fox met the Pats in the playoffs - We, yes i said we, were a kasay kick out of bounds from shocking the world.  I think the pats are just a bit over-valued here laying 2 td's, at any rate - i'll take 'em.  Teams on a five-game winning streak entering the playoffs are 1-7 ATS as home favorites off a bye since 2002.  I also like the probability of these two putting up some points on each other. 

Denver +15
OVER 50


Good luck all -
quote
Area51 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Area51
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1411
Location: United States
#2
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:50:30 AM
quote
Stifflersmom send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Stifflersmom
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 95
Location: Illinois
#3
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:03:16 PM
I gotta disagree with you on that first game
quote
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#4
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:11:04 PM
that's what makes the world go 'round stiffler....health to you - BOL on the rest!
quote
The-iLLuminati send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
The-iLLuminati
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 993
Location:
#5
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:13:08 PM
Denver can stop the double TE's on the field .
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
The-iLLuminati send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
The-iLLuminati
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 993
Location:
#6
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:13:27 PM
I mean CANT. But bol to you
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
WilliamMunny
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WilliamMunny
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 1956
Location: Maryland
#7
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:20:20 PM
I have all 4...GL to US!!!
quote
snowman76 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay |
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 1127
Location: Texas
#8
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:21:16 PM
I love N.O. too and i pick the losers, so im goin big on SF,  best of luck to all!
quote
Guy_2U send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Guy_2U
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 737
Location:
#9
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:40:42 PM

Spot on CS !

If both teams play to form, 49ers are the play!

BOL!

quote
Guy_2U send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Guy_2U
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 737
Location:
#10
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:43:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Stifflersmom:

I gotta disagree with you on that first game

Simply mind with no explaination and no reasoning.

quote
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#11
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:52:11 PM
lol, my goal is certainly to win'em all but a 3-1 i will gladly take, i really like the over in the pats/bronco's game but the wind threat is keeping me from it being an ooooooooo weeeeeeeeeeee panty dropper.  now baltimore tomorrow might be a different story.
quote
TheGoodfella send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheGoodfella
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 221
Location:
#12
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:55:14 PM

i have 3 out of 4, not betting the TOTAL on NE/DEN

lets get that cash!

quote
dawizard2011 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
dawizard2011
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1367
Location: New York
#13
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:59:40 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by CHARLOTTEsports] 3-3 nfl playoffs



SF +4
UNDER 47.5





Denver +15
OVER 50


Good luck all 


GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALSO CHARL......but you cant honestly think that both dogs will cover today?.....i take it u bought 1.5 pts on broncs to get +15?.....good luck either way but i feel both favs cover with ease!!
quote
onebrokebloke send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
onebrokebloke
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 508
Location: Maine
#14
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:59:51 PM
Definately like the bet's except NE ATS....but I love even more the getting sauced part!!.......just place the bet's FIRST!!!...GL
quote
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#15
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:01:40 PM
lol - onebroke -

let's roll goodfella

wizard - 5dimes is at 15 -135
quote
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#16
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:02:35 PM
why can't both dogs cover??????
quote
kamphil send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
kamphil
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 166
Location:
#17
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:04:15 PM
GREAT angle with teams that scored 40+ points in previous game.
Obviously Seattle didnt cover in Divisional round last yr., but then GB covered in NFC Championship.   It shouldn't lose two in a row...
CHARLOTTEsports, thanks for sharing
quote
kamphil send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
kamphil
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 166
Location:
#18
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:04:26 PM
GREAT angle with teams that scored 40+ points in previous game.
Obviously Seattle didnt cover in Divisional round last yr., but then GB covered in NFC Championship.   It shouldn't lose two in a row...
CHARLOTTEsports, thanks for sharing
quote
CHARLOTTEsports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CHARLOTTEsports
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 12024
Location: North Carolina
#19
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:20:13 PM
GL today kamp
quote
smallbet07 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
smallbet07
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 11397
Location: California
#20
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:39:17 PM
SF and Ne myself .  BOL Char
quote
VGPOP
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
VGPOP
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 40714
Location: Florida
#21
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:18:03 PM
quote
JJsLocks send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JJsLocks
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 12625
Location: Maryland
#22
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:23:33 PM
quote
docterd597 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
docterd597
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13533
Location: Connecticut
#23
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:25:54 PM
quote
TRAIN69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
TRAIN69
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 38336
Location: Missouri
#24
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:26:44 PM
quote
fupm send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fupm
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 911
Location:
#25
Posted: 1/15/2012 9:55:25 AM

Say it loud and say it proud!  Start the chant early and often!

"Let's go Ra-vens!  Let's go Ra-vens!" 

"Fuku-Payme!  Fuku-Payme!"

RAVENS and UNDER!

Good luck all! 

FUPM 2X

quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.