Thoughts on taking Bengals +7500

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Thoughts on taking Bengals +7500
ManjarrezG1 PM ManjarrezG1
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Posted: 1/3/2012 4:05:24 PM
Im thinking of putting $100 bet on bengals to win Super Bowl at +7500 and hedging the whole way through... Is there a good possibility to win money? Wondering if anyone has ever done this
ManjarrezG1 PM ManjarrezG1
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Posted: 1/3/2012 4:08:17 PM
Btw i took the patriots before the season to win Super Bowl.. 500 to win 2600 so if the bengals play the bengals I won't hedge that game

FSerpico PM FSerpico
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Posted: 1/3/2012 4:40:02 PM

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.

ManjarrezG1 PM ManjarrezG1
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Posted: 1/3/2012 5:13:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.

im not betting on them cause i think they will actually win.. I'm doing it so i can hedge and win money

pulledclear PM pulledclear
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Posted: 1/3/2012 5:53:58 PM
Getty3 PM Getty3
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Posted: 1/3/2012 5:58:21 PM

In my opinion, No.

This is a team which was expected to win no more than 6 games this year. They're "good", but don't bring anything special to the table. In fact, I'll go on record saying that they'll be one and done after this weekend in Houston.

suckerg PM suckerg
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Posted: 1/3/2012 7:05:17 PM
that's a terrible idea. we're talking about the bengals here, they won't even beat the texans. take houston -3
melvin23 PM melvin23
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Posted: 1/3/2012 7:21:36 PM
To examine the hedge
you would have to take houston who is -150ish, 
second round if bengals win they're probably somewhere like a 10 pt dog which would put patriots around -500
third round if bengals were to beat the pats you'd be at balt or at pitt and prob an 8-10 pt dog, once again your looking at having to take the favorite at -500

superbowl vs. Pack or Saints prob 14 pt line, would be about -700.

not sure how the math would work out but would get expensive to continually hedge and try to make $. would need lot of available funds to wager with.
that's my best guess to help, gl
melv
Skyclad PM Skyclad
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Posted: 1/3/2012 7:22:52 PM
not on the Bengals ..no experience qb ..average runners ..fair  to good defense ..in the playoffs a team has to kick up into another gear ande play like mademen ..the BENGALS can not do this ..srtanger things have happened i guess ..i would say S.F. OR DETROIT woulde haved a bedtter chance but probably wont pay that much g/l though
ManjarrezG1 PM ManjarrezG1
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Posted: 1/3/2012 8:30:52 PM
guys... i know the bengals WONT WIN... i was asking this from a math perspective... if they beat the

texans -150

ravens at -7 again which would be -350

patriots or steelers for AFC Chapmpionship... it steelers beat patriots then the spread would be at 7 again

If we think houston wins outright... more of a reason to make the bet and make a big money line wager on houston
mrbelvidere2010 PM mrbelvidere2010
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Posted: 1/3/2012 8:35:21 PM
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 1/3/2012 8:43:50 PM
Bengals are the worst future bet, they wont be going anywhere.............
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 1/3/2012 9:53:33 PM
From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.
theKCco_op PM theKCco_op
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Posted: 1/3/2012 11:46:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.



Thisand the multiple posts regarding the cost it would take to hedge this....
ManjarrezG1 PM ManjarrezG1
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Posted: 1/4/2012 12:30:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.
Thanks a lot... THIS was what i was looking for
gambling-devil PM gambling-devil
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Posted: 1/4/2012 12:36:23 AM
rule of thumb,

never play the series ... just play rolling bet on all game ML


rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 1/4/2012 1:06:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.


Well said.

Not to mention, betting the Bengals in each game and rolling it over the whole way through would net you far higher than 75-1. If anything, do that but in no way do you take the +7500 with the idea of hedging throughout.
Nessa PM Nessa
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Posted: 1/4/2012 3:58:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.



Exactly.
Nessa PM Nessa
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Posted: 1/4/2012 4:05:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.


wow, what a nice explanation, where's the thread starter? you should seriously thank this guy for doing the math for you and putting it that simple, these long-shot bets are loved by the books and they really use these stupid props to make money because apart from that all they basically take long-term is the juice, also, another guy already gave out a nice explanation about these type of bets, you're better off putting like $100 on Cincy to win su, and let it ride as the winnings come along all the way to the SB, it would make you far more money than the +7500 offered.
AgainstDaConsen PM AgainstDaConsen
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Posted: 1/4/2012 5:10:02 AM
I think the odds are friggin amazing... 

I am seeing +9200

the Patriots are beatable... just pray for some upset but regardless in Cincy gets into the Afc championship game they are gonna play a division rival... a team they have played twice before, this season...

I say bang.. but no hedging... Cincy has the best shot of all the pretenders to make and possibly win the super bowl
lancer89074 PM lancer89074
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Posted: 1/4/2012 2:10:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.




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