Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Thoughts on taking Bengals +7500
ManjarrezG1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManjarrezG1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 1044
Location: New Jersey
#1
Posted: 1/3/2012 4:05:24 PM
Im thinking of putting $100 bet on bengals to win Super Bowl at +7500 and hedging the whole way through... Is there a good possibility to win money? Wondering if anyone has ever done this
quote
ManjarrezG1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManjarrezG1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 1044
Location: New Jersey
#2
Posted: 1/3/2012 4:08:17 PM
Btw i took the patriots before the season to win Super Bowl.. 500 to win 2600 so if the bengals play the bengals I won't hedge that game

quote
FSerpico send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
FSerpico
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 1200
Location:
#3
Posted: 1/3/2012 4:40:02 PM

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.

quote
ManjarrezG1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManjarrezG1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 1044
Location: New Jersey
#4
Posted: 1/3/2012 5:13:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.

im not betting on them cause i think they will actually win.. I'm doing it so i can hedge and win money

quote
pulledclear send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
pulledclear
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 3202
Location: United States
#5
Posted: 1/3/2012 5:53:58 PM
quote
Getty3
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Getty3
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 16808
Location: Florida
#6
Posted: 1/3/2012 5:58:21 PM

In my opinion, No.

This is a team which was expected to win no more than 6 games this year. They're "good", but don't bring anything special to the table. In fact, I'll go on record saying that they'll be one and done after this weekend in Houston.

quote
suckerg
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
suckerg
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 872
Location: Illinois
#7
Posted: 1/3/2012 7:05:17 PM
that's a terrible idea. we're talking about the bengals here, they won't even beat the texans. take houston -3
quote
melvin23 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
melvin23
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 108
Location: Colorado
#8
Posted: 1/3/2012 7:21:36 PM
To examine the hedge
you would have to take houston who is -150ish, 
second round if bengals win they're probably somewhere like a 10 pt dog which would put patriots around -500
third round if bengals were to beat the pats you'd be at balt or at pitt and prob an 8-10 pt dog, once again your looking at having to take the favorite at -500

superbowl vs. Pack or Saints prob 14 pt line, would be about -700.

not sure how the math would work out but would get expensive to continually hedge and try to make $. would need lot of available funds to wager with.
that's my best guess to help, gl
melv
quote
Skyclad
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Skyclad
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 182
Location:
#9
Posted: 1/3/2012 7:22:52 PM
not on the Bengals ..no experience qb ..average runners ..fair  to good defense ..in the playoffs a team has to kick up into another gear ande play like mademen ..the BENGALS can not do this ..srtanger things have happened i guess ..i would say S.F. OR DETROIT woulde haved a bedtter chance but probably wont pay that much g/l though
quote
ManjarrezG1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManjarrezG1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 1044
Location: New Jersey
#10
Posted: 1/3/2012 8:30:52 PM
guys... i know the bengals WONT WIN... i was asking this from a math perspective... if they beat the

texans -150

ravens at -7 again which would be -350

patriots or steelers for AFC Chapmpionship... it steelers beat patriots then the spread would be at 7 again

If we think houston wins outright... more of a reason to make the bet and make a big money line wager on houston
quote
mrbelvidere2010
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mrbelvidere2010
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 1165
Location: New Jersey
#11
Posted: 1/3/2012 8:35:21 PM
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#12
Posted: 1/3/2012 8:43:50 PM
Bengals are the worst future bet, they wont be going anywhere.............
quote
scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
scalabrine
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 14581
Location: United States
#13
Posted: 1/3/2012 9:53:33 PM
From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.
quote
theKCco_op send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
theKCco_op
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 244
Location:
#14
Posted: 1/3/2012 11:46:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.



Thisand the multiple posts regarding the cost it would take to hedge this....
quote
ManjarrezG1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManjarrezG1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 1044
Location: New Jersey
#15
Posted: 1/4/2012 12:30:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.
Thanks a lot... THIS was what i was looking for
quote
gambling-devil send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
gambling-devil
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 7554
Location: United States
#16
Posted: 1/4/2012 12:36:23 AM
rule of thumb,

never play the series ... just play rolling bet on all game ML


quote
rangerz2478 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rangerz2478
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 16550
Location: New Jersey
#17
Posted: 1/4/2012 1:06:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.


Well said.

Not to mention, betting the Bengals in each game and rolling it over the whole way through would net you far higher than 75-1. If anything, do that but in no way do you take the +7500 with the idea of hedging throughout.
quote
Nessa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
Nessa
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 245
Location: Ohio
#18
Posted: 1/4/2012 3:58:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.



Exactly.
quote
Nessa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
Nessa
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 245
Location: Ohio
#19
Posted: 1/4/2012 4:05:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

From a math perspective, it's a terrible idea.

If they ever, in their wildest dreams made it to the SB at -700 against NO or GB, you'd be in a huge hole to make a profit.

If you just go by what was said above, here is what you would spend to profit. I think the lines above are off but I'll use them anyhow.

Cincy beats Houston at -150 (Lose $150 to cover the $100) This is all just to break even!

Cincy beats Ravens at -350 (Lose $350 to cover the $100 + $525 to cover the previous $150 lost) just to break even.

Cincy beats Pats at -450 (Lose $450 to cover the $100 +$4,612.50 to cover the previous $1,025 lost) just to break even.

If Cincy loses any of those games you win nothing as well and you have to potentially cash out thousands that you risked just to cover the original $100. Your book may have a slight problem with a payout like that, and the bank won't smile on it.

If Cincy wins all threes, now you're setting yourself up for a massive ML bet against NO or GB that will put you deep in the red if Cincy wins and the 75-1 hits. You're not getting long enough odds if you play big favorites all the way through.


This gets too expensive too quick. Put $5 on Cincy and call it a day.


wow, what a nice explanation, where's the thread starter? you should seriously thank this guy for doing the math for you and putting it that simple, these long-shot bets are loved by the books and they really use these stupid props to make money because apart from that all they basically take long-term is the juice, also, another guy already gave out a nice explanation about these type of bets, you're better off putting like $100 on Cincy to win su, and let it ride as the winnings come along all the way to the SB, it would make you far more money than the +7500 offered.
quote
AgainstDaConsen send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
AgainstDaConsen
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 16713
Location: Northwest
              Territories
#20
Posted: 1/4/2012 5:10:02 AM
I think the odds are friggin amazing... 

I am seeing +9200

the Patriots are beatable... just pray for some upset but regardless in Cincy gets into the Afc championship game they are gonna play a division rival... a team they have played twice before, this season...

I say bang.. but no hedging... Cincy has the best shot of all the pretenders to make and possibly win the super bowl
quote
lancer89074 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
lancer89074
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1489
Location: Nevada
#21
Posted: 1/4/2012 2:10:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Give your $100 to a childrens charity or something. Do a good deed. Dont waste it on the Bengals.




quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.