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Need Hedge expert's (possibly DoubleUp4Life's) advice and take on this

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I haven't really played much NFL b/c I put all my eggs into 1 basket this season. Now I am sweating bullets.I have 2 chances to limit my loss with the Bills playing DEN and NE the next 2 weeks. I know that the NE line will be over-inflated and the Bills will be undervalued (with what little value they still have) - so this Saturday may be my only chance to help cut my losses.  Below is some very simple scenarios that I have drawn up, If ANYONE has any advice on a better route to take, please take a few moments to outline your path.

BILLS over 5.5 wins -120
Risked 2,400 to win 2,000

Scenerio 1

-2400 = -2400 (Let it ride and Bills don't win 1 of next 2 games)

Scenerio 2

-2400 + 2000 = -400 (Bills under 5.5 wins and Broncos ML win)
OR
+2000 - 2900 = -900 (Bills over 5.5 wins and Broncos ML Loss)

Scenario 3

Hell freezes over and the Bills win - which will take me having balls of still to have confidence in them at this point, which I don't
 
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Posted: #2
I liked the Bills early in the week to beat the Broncos but this team has fallen apart & after looking at the game closely, dont see them winning...............im sure Double will tell you to hedge the bet...........I dont see the Bills winning this week or next week..................
 
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Posted: #3
you could just let it ride instead of being afraid to lose. i know it looks like they can't beat anyone right now, but what was the point of betting it in the first place then? what if they didn't start off winning? then you are down 2400 in the first place meaning and youd need to win 1 of these again next year with even more at risk just to break even. betting against yourself by hedging now...
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

I liked the Bills early in the week to beat the Broncos but this team has fallen apart & after looking at the game closely, dont see them winning...............im sure Double will tell you to hedge the bet...........I dont see the Bills winning this week or next week..................


Agreed PTB, I have watched more Bills games this year than the previous 10 years of my life. Their O is pathetic, Fitzpatrick can't hit the broad side of a barn, injury plagued, and Denver has a lot to play for. I think mainly my question isn't that IF I'm going to play on Den ML, but what is the best amount to hedge and reduce my losses the most I can either way. Just trying to think of some better math I suppose - btw, follow your thread a good amount, keep up the great work and F the haters. Cheers buddy!
 
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Posted: #5
have you looked at the possibility of a 2 team ML parlay with Denver tomorrow and NE next week? If your book allows open ended parlays, this could maybe be a way to buy out? I'm not sure how the math will work....but it's another option to look at.

BOL bud
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by coolfool:

you could just let it ride instead of being afraid to lose. i know it looks like they can't beat anyone right now, but what was the point of betting it in the first place then? what if they didn't start off winning? then you are down 2400 in the first place meaning and youd need to win 1 of these again next year with even more at risk just to break even. betting against yourself by hedging now...


Umm....the purpose of a hedge is so you dont lose money or as much as you would if you let it ride............this isnt a competition on who can pick more correct games, this is about money & making a profit.............
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:

have you looked at the possibility of a 2 team ML parlay with Denver tomorrow and NE next week? If your book allows open ended parlays, this could maybe be a way to buy out? I'm not sure how the math will work....but it's another option to look at.

BOL bud


^^^^^^^

This is an excellent idea.............the probable payout on that would be something like for every $100 to win $85, I figured this out by Broncos -145 & Pats -1000 figuring the Pats would be around -16 or -17
 
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Posted: #8
I really think Bills win this weekend against the chargers.


 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by pezeveng:

I really think Bills win this weekend against the chargers.




Broncos? I don't see it....at all. Horrible rush D vs the best rushing team in the NFL - Injury plagued - last game the only way they broke 20 points is b/c of MIA being in a prevent Defense for the majority of the 3rd and all of the 4th quarter. Their offense is way out of sink....I'm so sold on the Bills loosing out that I am willing to take a small loss vs the chance of winning big.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



^^^^^^^

This is an excellent idea.............the probable payout on that would be something like for every $100 to win $85, I figured this out by Broncos -145 & Pats -1000 figuring the Pats would be around -16 or -17


It's pretty obvious that he would hedge by betting against Buffalo. He doesn't need to bet a parlay. He can bet SD this week and roll his winnings into NE. No inherent adv to the parlay.

I also think the Pats might rest some starters and won't be 16 pts in a game that might not be significant to them.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:



It's pretty obvious that he would hedge by betting against Buffalo. He doesn't need to bet a parlay. He can bet SD this week and roll his winnings into NE. No inherent adv to the parlay.

I also think the Pats might rest some starters and won't be 16 pts in a game that might not be significant to them.


I think you mean the Broncos...........anyway, he would have to play the Broncos ML at -145, not worth it, also, the Patriots got smacked around vs the Bills early in the year, you think Belichick is gonna lay down for that game? 

Not saying Brady will play the whole game but you catch my drift............
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



I think you mean the Broncos...........anyway, he would have to play the Broncos ML at -145, not worth it, also, the Patriots got smacked around vs the Bills early in the year, you think Belichick is gonna lay down for that game? 

Not saying Brady will play the whole game but you catch my drift............




Not worth what PTB?
 
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Posted: #13
Double has been hedging that bet for weeks now.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Umm....the purpose of a hedge is so you dont lose money or as much as you would if you let it ride............this isnt a competition on who can pick more correct games, this is about money & making a profit.............
then you don't understand long-term investing.

thanks for sharing your thoughts though,

bro.


 
 
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Posted: #15
nothing like pussying out and losing money instead of winning 2,000
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