"Playoff Factor" winning picks seems to stand out without a great deal of effort. However, I did put a fair amount of brain-power into these match ups. At no other time of the year does Motivation stand out so clearly. Each of these picks is a mismatch to various degrees, and chopping off or adding 6 points to the lines have me loving this teaser big-time. I only chose a 6 pt teaser: A) to give myself the best payoff odds B) I'm pretty much only asking my teams to win, adding another 1/2 point or a couple more only reduces the payoff and shouldn't really make much difference in the lines anyway....
Dal -1
Cin -1/2
NO -1
Hou Pk
Jets +9 1 unit to win 4.48 units
Don't ask me how it worked out to 4.48 to 1, I bet an uneven amount and this is what it divided out to...screwy odds.
Each pick has a huge motivational factor to make the playoffs going for the picked side.
A commentary on each:
Dal - This game is a mismatch. Dal:PF/PA 24.1/21.6, TB 17.8/21.5. A winning team vs a losing team. A MUST WIN for Dal vs a crap TB team. However (and that's why this pick is on a teaser), Dal is not necessarily likely to convert that mismatch edge to a point spread cover. Dal: 1-7 ATS vs conference opponents this season. 1-5 vs teams with losing records. Their MO seems to involve choking, making terrible mistakes with the game on the line, and playing down to the level of their competition. They should blow out the Bucs, but will they? I do feel confident that needing this game so badly and coming off 2 straight losses, that they will at least win. Don't forget that as bad as TB is, they did cover against GB and on the road at that...they could cover the 7 again against this shoot-themselves-in-the-foot Dal team.
Cin - Another team with playoff aspirations. A long shot for a wild card spot but with 3 games to go, they will play like they can do it. Another complete mismatch. Cin PF/PA: 21.9/20.8, SL: 11.8/25.1
Cin has a pretty decent defense, they have the ability to shut down this pathetic Rams offense. BTW, the Rams are pretty good at shutting themselves down all by themselves with one of the worst red-zone offenses in the league, not to mention the handicap of mentally challenged play callers/coaches. If you have any doubt, you should review that 4th Q 1st and goal situation at Sea MN; A gift pass interference penalty to put them on the 1 yard line. Stud RB Steven Jackson on the sideline(huh?). Run for no gain by Williams. One-legged Badshaw on a QB sneak for no gain (are you kidding me?). Still only 1 yard for a TD, they pass for incomplete? (WTF?). A GIFT taunting penalty and a new set of downs from a foot away. Pass incomplete. (OMG! - MORONS), Pass incomplete. They need a foot and they're passing the ball??? WOW. 3rd down they finally give the ball to Jackson and of course he gets the TD. This is the kind of team you just want to bet against every week no matter who they are playing or the line (2-11 ATS for the season!). I privately LMAO @ peeps picking SL MN...Cin? They are no sure thing ATS either (7-5-1) but I don't see them losing this game. Enough said....
NO - Mismatch. NO now tied with SF for 2nd seed, don't expect them to let up now... I expect NO to secure HFA when it's all said and done with a first round bye and SF having to host a wild card game they should win and then losing on the road in the next round. NO PF/PA: 31.9/22, Min: 21.1/28. NO is 9-4ATS, Min 5-6-2. The problem? NO: 0-2 ATS as a road fav of 3.5-7 pts, 3-4 ATS on the road. Also, Min 4-2 ATS as a dog. NO is no sure thing ATS, but I'm sure they win this game. NEXT.....
Hou - Another complete mismatch. Hou fighting for seeding for the playoffs. Hou PF/PA: 25.4/16, Car: 24.1/27.3 Hou 6-1 as a fav ATS, 8-2 on grass (no, I'm not making an allusion to HURD - lol), 5-1 ATS after 2 consecutive wins. Car 2-1 ATS vs AFC South. This should be a blow-out, but Hou just wrapped up their division securing a franchise first playoff spot. They might have a let-down. Will they lose? I seriously doubt it. Also, sadly, Phillips who gets full credit for turning around this previously pathetic defense and creating a top defense is now on medical leave. Will it have any effect? Debatable...
Jets - Huge motivation to make the playoffs. Jets have the 2nd wild card seed if they keep winning and all else remains equal. Their history in recent years is that they are money late in the season. As a road underdog 3pts or less last 3 seasons: 6-1 ATS. Phil at home: 1-5 ATS. NYJ PF/PA: 25.2/20.8, Phil: 22.8, 22.5. This is the only match up on my teaser which is not a complete mismatch. Phil did just garner a nice win @ Mia who had been quite hot before that contest. Can Phil win again? Maybe. Will they win by 9? I really, really doubt it. If I had to bet this game ATS, I would take the Jets all day and even put some ML action on the Jets. On this teaser, I feel very confident.
Each pick is a team with a legitimate shot to make the playoffs (with the exception of Cin who will need some help). Each opponent has ZERO motivation to make the playoffs. They are eliminated from contention (except Phil from a purely mathematical point of view). These are all MUST WINS (or at least REALLY WANT TO WIN with good reason) for the picked teams. I give myself a 75% chance to cash getting about 4.5 to 1 odds, a bet I would make time and time again. The 75% is not based on any mathematical formula but my estimation of the chances all 5 teams cover my spreads. Please don't dump on me for this opinion....
For the record, my picks this week were: Sea, Over, Atl, Over: 4-0
I wouldn't say it except that I did post my picks on threads all over the place, so it's easy to verify (don't waste your time though, I'm sure you have better things to do...). It doesn't mean it will continue, I'm just suggesting that I'm thinking very clearly at this point. Tail at your own risk.
Unlike a lot of ass-wipes who post, I'm not one to say "no brainer", "lock", "pound it". I do have some humility and a bit of class.....I don't try to unduly influence people when they really should be doing their own thinking and making their own decisions.
I always advocate doing your own homework and doing your own thing! (but there's nothing wrong with mining for ideas which is what Covers Forums should be all about).
Thanks for reading and your comments are more than welcome!
BOL everyone!