Jags @ Falcons Pick + Write Up

This is my first write up, let me know what you guys think.

Jacksonville 42.5 @ Atlanta -11

Records:

Jacksonville 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 3-10 O/U

Atlanta 8-5 SU, 5-6-2 ATS, 4-9 O/U

Preview:

The Jaguars will face off against the Falcons with nothing going for them offensively (14.8 PPG) except Maurice Jones-Drew (4.4 YPC). Jacksonville did manage to put up 41 points last week but let’s face it, they played a Tampa Bay team that gives up the second most PPG in the league (28.5 PPG). Combine that with the fact that Tampa Bay turned the ball over 7 times (two of those seven resulted in a defensive TD) and gives up the 28^th most YPC and it’s a recipe for lots of scoring for Jacksonville.  This week the Jags will have to take a step back into reality playing against a Falcons offense that takes care of the ball and has the 5^th best defense against the run. Defensively the Jaguars come in allowing only 19.4 PPG, good enough for 7^th best in the league. They’ll be tested by an Atlanta attack that puts up 366 YPG, 23.1 PPG.  

What To Expect:

Both teams take care of the ball relatively well and neither one is prone to give up the big play defensively. The Jags will come out trying to do what they do best and run the football. Their defense should be good enough to continue to pound the ball at least until the 2^nd half. Atlanta will build a comfortable lead by the beginning of the fourth quarter and keep the clock moving.

Prediction:

Jags 13 Falcons 24

The Play And Why:

The under holds the most value in this matchup. Jacksonville cannot throw the ball at all and they know it completing only 50.8% of their passes for 141 yards a game. They will have to continue to try and run the ball against a solid rush defense. I can’t see the Jags putting up any more than 14 points. With that being said I can’t see the Falcons being able to score 28 points against an underrated Jacksonville defense who has only given up 19.4 PPG versus opposing offenses that average 22.4 PPG. The total should be closer to 38 but thanks to both teams games last week I think we see and inflated line here.

Under 42 or better 4* (Out of a possible 5*)

Key Trends:

· Jags have gone under 5 of their last 5 games on the road

· Jags have gone under 10 of the their last 13

· Atl has gone under 5 of their last 5 at home

· Atl has gone under in 8 of their last 9

· Jags are 7-0 with the under this season when throwing for 150 yards or less

· Jags are 8-1 with the under this season when score 14 points or less

· Atl is 4-0 with the under this season when they score 22 to 28 points

· Atl is 5-1 with the under when gaining 300-350 total yards this season

· The Under is 25-5 since 1983 when terrible passing teams (Jags <=150 PYG) are on the road against a poor pass defense (ATL 230-265 PYG).

(1-0 This season)

(2-1 The last 3 seasons)

(7-1 The last 5 seasons)

· The under is 68-30 since 1983 when the total is between 35.5-42 when played on a Thursday.**

(6-0 This season)

(18-0 The last 3 seasons)

(20-4 The last 5 seasons)

** Note this total opened at 42.5

It looks as though his "prediction" is an 11 point win by Atlanta.  Why would he pick a side if he thinks there will be a push.  Use your brain please.

No I don't. The Jags were in a bad spot there with the that being the new head coaches first game who also happens to be the defensive coordinator. Not hard to think that maybe Mel Tucker was slightly distracted from his defensive game plan with his new responsibilites.

The Jags have have only allowed more than 200 yards passing 4 times this year.  TEN 249, NO 326, HOU 202, and SD 294.

I haven't seen it go any higher than 42.5 but I have seen it as low as 41.5 at my book. More money was on the under at that time though so it might be worth a shot. I can't see it dropping below 42 again.

Im on Jax Under 16 points myself.

Nice write up, GL dude

If he gives a score prediction then can't you figure out the play?

To the op, nice write-up and good luck to you with your picks.

Atlanta wins SU 85.3%

Atlanta wins by an estimated 13 points

53.4% Atlanta covers the -11.5 spread

Jax/Atl estimated points 41

54% it will stay under 42.5

Atlanta 27  Jax 14