Week 13 Leans, Discussions, and Plays 21-8 YTD +22.45 U

Good afternoon to the covers community. Unfortunately I was busy as hell last week and didn't have any time to cap any games so no plays for week 12. On to week 13. Still having a great season.

:Leans

Miami -3   Like the Dolphins here on the extra rest. Oakland has been playing well as of late, but Miami's defense will really give them problems. I still don't trust Carson Palmer. Plus, Oakland on a long trip. Will most likely wait until closer to kickoff to take this as I feel like everyone is going to be on Oakland, which could push the spread under 3. Just the fact that over 90% are on Oakland right now and the line hasn't budged is fishy.

Cleveland +6.5    Baltimore is one of the most up and down teams in the NFL. They're very good, but at times can also be very bad. Cleveland played a division game last week against a solid Bengals team on the road and almost won. Their defense is very good and will keep this game close. The extra rest for the Ravens doesn't worry me as I feel they're a very inconsistent team. It might actually do more harm than good.

Arizona +4.5/ML    This is mostly a line movement play. Dallas is fighting for a division crown, but may look ahead to the Giants next week. Just seems odd that Dallas opens as 6.5 point favorites but are now only 4.5 point favorites with the majority on Dallas. Doesn't make any sense. Arizona is a better team at home.

Green Bay -7    How can anyone realistically bet against the Packers right now? They never lose! I don't want to hear the "they're due for a loss" argument. Nonsense.

Tennessee/Buffalo UNDER 43.5    I expect a grueling, running type of game between these two teams. It seems like Chris Johnson finally awoke. I expect the Titans to feed him the ball a lot. Tennessee's passing offense doesn't scare me one bit. They play solid defense and should be able to contain Buffalo for the most part.

St. Louis/San Francisco UNDER 37.5    How will the Rams be able to score against one of the league's top defenses? Can't see it happening. Also, the Rams cannot stop the run. That is the 49ers strength on offense.

Detroit/New Orleans OVER 54    This game might even get to 70.

Thinking of a 3-team, 10 point teaser: New England -10, Denver +11, Seattle +13

Any and all comments are welcome. BOL to everyone this week

If you wanna opt for an 'easier' 10team, Throw in the 49ers and perhaps the Over in NO/DET, Saint could probably get 44 on their own, hah.

Miami

True. Good points. Might have to tail you on this one.

The Raiders are a solid football team. But it just speaks volumes that a 3-8 last place team is favored over a 7-4 1st place team. Matt Moore is playing just as well as Palmer is right now. Without McFadden, both teams' running games are equal. Miami's defense is better. I really like Miami in this one. It's 90% going to be a play. If the line drops under 3, it's a 100% play and I'll probably add more units to it.

BOL to you PTB

Quote Originally Posted by metalbill:

i think your going to have a nice week. bol man

Thank you sir. Hope you do as well 

I'm not going to be playing anything in this game. But I would lean to under 43.5. Vince Young has demonstrated that he cannot run a successful passing offense. DeSean Jackson seems to be non-existent, most likely over his contract issues. Expect LeSean McCoy to get many more carries than last week. He only had 10. Expect that to change. The Eagles defense should be able to step it up with week after last week's poor performance.For the Seahawks, expect a lot of Marshawn Lynch. Their passing game isn't great to begin with.

Quote Originally Posted by seattleseahawks:

Nice Record

Thank you sir 

Official Play

Philadelphia @ Seattle   UNDER 44   1 unit     See my above write-up. Good luck to everyone on their play(s) for this game!

Week 13 Recap

Philadelphia vs. Seattle   UNDER 44 1U      -1.1U

Miami Dolphins -3(-120)   POD   3U     +3U

Cleveland Browns +6.5   2U     -2.2U

Chicago Bears -7   1U     -1.1U

Cincinnati Bengals +7   1U     -1.1U

New Orleans Saints -6 1H   1U     +1U

Arizona Cardinals +4.5   1U     +1U

Arizona Cardinals +175 1U     +1.75U

Denver Broncos -1   1U     +1U

4-team Parlay: Chicago Bears -360, Miami Dolphins -185, Cleveland Browns +270, Arizona Cardinals +175   1/2U to win 9.5U     -1/2U

3-team, 10 point teaser: Detroit / New Orleans OVER 44, Cleveland Browns +16.5, Cincinnati Bengals +17   1U     -1.1U

Detroit vs. New Orleans OVER 54   2U     -2.2U

St. Louis vs. San Francisco UNDER 37.5   1U     +1U

Carolina Panthers -3(+110)   1U     +1.1U

 

Yesterday overall: 7-7, +0.55U..... Not a very good day at all. Cincinnati totally shit the bed, What a miserable performance. Cleveland couldn't capitalize on their opportunities. Still trying to figure out how the Saints game went under. And it seemed like divine intervention was against the Bears the whole day! Oh well The name of the game is gaining units and I still pulled that off.

 

MNF

 

San Diego Chargers -3(-115) @ Jacksonville Jaguars   39.5

 

Still  trying to crack this game. Will get back later with official play.

 

YTD: 28-16  +21.90U ($438)

Sides: 15-8

MLs: 6-0

Totals: 6-6

Teasers: 1-1

Parlays: 0-1

 

MNF Play

San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars   UNDER 39.5

2 Units

Really can't see how this game goes over the total. Jacksonville's offense is god awful. Blaine Gabbert hasn't been able to get anything done this season through the air. Jones-Drew and Karim are going to be pounding the ball the entire game. This will eat the clock and as long as San Diego doesn't give up long touchdown runs, will undoubtedly help the under. San Diego also hasn't been scoring much at all lately. Rivers is a turnover machine this season. Penalties also help the under, and we all know how many penalties the Chargers commit. Game stays under. Final score prediction: Chargers 17 Jaguars 6.

BOL to everyone tonight