The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

Trench Report - O & D Line Power Rankings - Week Five

Will be posted tomorrow when I have my stats updated.

Ill keep an eye on this... GL to you.

You can't predict who is going to score more points either. What are you getting at? I am simply saying that if you take this into consideration with your handicapping, it may help you pick more winners. If your basing your wagers solely on one stat or system, your bound to lose anyway. Simply information I find interesting and so do many others.

i use these numbers as well.

jack - tennessee looks like a nice pick @+5, but doesn the titans dead last in rushing yards per attempt and per game factor into this?

Maybe I didn't word that right. Titans avg more pass yds per attempt, but being last in the league in rushing, would this sway you off of the titans?

I am not posting this as a system. I am not posting this claiming this is my record. I am not posting this because this is how I handicap games. As I said in my other post when I began this, this is simply for information and something to think about. If you would like go read my write-ups on the past games I have picked, I don't mention this in any of them as I do not take this into my handicapping nearly as much as I do other factors. So no I am not exposed or claiming anything here but it was a little weird to see how quick that one guy jumped on me. Bad day at work?

Gamehunter, as far as what you said. I am posting these records from after the game. These records are not based on playing the team with a higher YPPA before the game, they are based on who has the higher rating after the game. Like I said, this is not a system or anything close to it.

All I am posting is a stat that appears to have a very high relation to the team covering the point spread. If you are able to predict the quarterback that will have a better YPPA before the game, more times then not (80% this season) you will cover the point spread. Personally I find it extremely interesting to think that potentially you may be able to forget about all the other factors that go into handicapping a game and focus on predicting one stat.

So don't jump all over me for posting faulty records and a bogus system and all that bullshit. That is not what I am trying to do at all so please let it go. Just information. You either like it or don't. If you don't, don't try change it, just move on with your day.

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Please don't think I was jumping on you. I truthfully didn't understand the dynamics of this theory. And please don't take this point the wrong way. I do understand your underlying point which is to look closely at teams with better YPPA, however, looking at the stats after the game and saying that the teams with the better YPPA in that game have a 52-12 ATS record as it's not always easy to predict who will have the best YPPA. It's not always the better passing team. The worst passing team can break a 95 yard pass play that game and they will have the better YPPA but how do we predict that? I am sure there good stats for teams with less turnovers in a game covering the spread at a good rate but it's not easy to predict what will happen in a given game. I am not trying to be a di%$ in this post but your initial post is a bit confusing but I respect your point that analyzing YPPA can be very helpful.

Completely agree. Look at Carolina. Two of the losses this season ATS have been against the Panthers. I also think the Pats will add 7 or 8 losses to the record as they will always be up there but will not run the board ATS. Exactly the reason I do not have this anywhere near the top of my factors to account into handicapping.

What I am posting this for, as I have mentioned before is information sake. I believe when you add this with my trench report (O and D Line Power Rankings) you can come up with a very strong place to start looking at games and making predictions. Green Bay last week has a very legitimate advantage in YPPA and a huge advantage on both O Line and D Line. Looking into the game further they appeared to in a very strong spot. What did they cover by? 17 points. By no means have I ever reccomended simply looking at this and firing away. Its just another thing to think about for handicapping, and if used correctly, this could help you out in a big way to determine where you should start looking to bet come Sunday.

Where do you not find it?