clutchshot nfl (so far so good, 6-1-1)

Texans +4

It is surprising but true. The Texans have the best defense in football after two weeks. Granted they played the punchless Colts and the winless Dolphins, but they dominated on defense regardless. New Orleans is a different animal offensively than Miami and Indianapolis but their defense is suspect again.

Miami +1.5

Nothing new with Miami losing at home. They are now 18-48 ATS in last 66 at home and 39-24-1 ATS in last 64 on the road. Not sure why is that, but it is a fact, Miami plays better on the road. They are also 5-1 SU and ATS in last 6 away after a home loss. The Browns are 2-7 ATS in last 9 at home, with both covers comming as underdogs.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline

Tampa Bay led by 10 in the 4th quarter at home against Atlanta last season, and lost the game. That game pretty much dismissed them from the playoffs picture. They are now catching Atlanta after that over-hyped game against the Eagles and should be able to ride the momentum after that win against Minnesota in which they trailed 17-0 early on.

Chicago +4 buy 0.5

I will buy the half point here even though I know that buying half pt from 3.5 to 4 is a no-no. I just have a feeling that if GB wins this game it will be by 3 or 4, and if Chicago wins it, it will by by more than that. Something is wrong with GB defense and Carolina and New Orleans exposed many of their weaknesses. Chicago is good enough to exploit those.

Denver +7

For some reason I believe that Denver can neutralize Tennessee passing offense and make them one-dimensional. Not saying that Tennessee can not win if that happens, but rather than this game will be closer than expected. Tennessee could experience what Baltimore experienced in week 2 - a letdown after a big win.

I like Denver and Miami.

thanks