I could write all day about the exciting developments during the first two weeks, but it’s all about what we can learn from these two weeks to capitalize on overvalued lines. I’ll start with the battle for first place in the AFC East when the Patriots (-7.5) visit the Ralph which will be as loud as it’s been since Kelly was leading the Bills to Super Bowl after Super Bowl. Yes, the Patriots have beat the Bills 15 straight times which seems to be where most people will lean on this one, but the Patriots secondary has been of the Swiss cheese sort this year without Pro Bowler Meriweather who was cut right before the season started. The Pats will also be without injured safety Patrick Chung and possibly be without corner Leigh Bodden. With the Bills averaging 39.5 points over the first two games I like them to be able to keep it a one score game. Take the Bills (+7.5). There is also an absolute gem if you’re willing to lay a little extra juice (-115) for a prop bet. The Patriots over/under for points scored is 31.5 and to be frank it’s just moronic. The Patriots have scored over 30 points in 10 straight games dating back to last year. The Bills let Jason Campbell cut them up last week for 35 points and now face Tom Brady who has passed for 940 yards over the first two weeks. The Bills defense has no chance to stop the Patriots streak at 10 so take the over 31.5 with as much cash as you can.
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