I changed my mind on taking the Bengals- Under is the best play here IMO this is what I wrote in Andy's thread:
"Niners have best run D so Dalton will have to convert some long downs and the Niners will be a little big weary from the travel but it's not like it's a b2b in the NBA or something they'll stop the run. It's also Dalton's first home opener so he'll feel some jitters and pressure to do well.
The Bengals will be very tough on D. Niners can't run the ball and Bengals shut down Hillis. Clements and Hall will easily stop the pass.
Both coaches will play it really conservative in what should be a tight game. I still think the Bengals win but in a close game with a bad team even -2.5 makes me cringe.
At 41 with the public slamming the Over this Under looks damn good compared to any side."
Official Play 1:
49ers - Bengals Under 41 (-117) to win 7.5 units
Lotta reasons to lean the Bengals, but I definitely feel as though the Under is the safest play here. Let's break this down.
The Niners have been absolutely atrocious at running the football. Frank Gore has been pathetic along with their offensive line. At 2.8 YPC going against a solid top 10 Cincy run D in YPC allowed lead by Maulauga the Niners won't move the ball on the ground. They also won't move it well in the air. Geathers and the Bengals have a decent pass rush and will give the Niners line a tough time after they just got abused by the Cowboys DLs. San Fran has the 4th worst amount of passing yards so far. Throw in the fact that Crabtree will be rusty if he plays, Edwards will be banged up if he plays, Nate Clements a DB is facing his old Niners, Leon Hall and Clements hold the fort for a top 10 Bengals D against the pass, and you have a lot of 3 and outs for Alex Smith and Co.
Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Andy Dalton has actually been pretty decent. However, the Bengals usually need to establish the run to really get him going. That's going to be a massive issue against a San Francisco Defense that is the BEST IN THE LEAGUE AT STOPPING THE RUN. This leads to a lot of 3rd and longs which will be intimidating for Dalton considering that he'll have the jitters playing in his first home opener with the fans actually believing that the Bungles can win.
Yes the Niners are in a tough spot off of an emotional loss but they are in the thick of it in the pathetic NFC West and they PLAY AT THE EAGLES THE FOLLOWING WEEK. The Niners know they won't win that game so they'll be focused for this one.
Dalton and Smith have only combined for 1 INT so far so I don't think they'll be giving away free points like Luke McCown did against the Jets last week.
Both teams have scored more than 41 in their games but a lot of those were on late garbage time TDs. At 41 with the public banging the over and the total reversing down there is a lot of value taking the Under in what could be a rainy Cincinnati this coming Sunday.
Will be playing some other games later in the week this one stood out.
GL
tough game Dolphins lost some tough games to start- the Browns can run the ball on them and the Fins can do that to them so I'm not sold on either team yet at first glance BOL
go with your first gut thought I liked the Under better when I found out that the Niners played the Eagles next week and were the best in the league at stopping the run- I don't think they look ahead here but either way I think Bengals and Under will cash
Long time no see buddy! Tough card this week I usually look into the games in real detail on Thursday unless there's a total like today that I liked and is on the move.
At first glance I would agree with the Hawks but Tavaris drives me nuts def Hawks or no play. If Kafka is in and the Giants are missing their secondary I will really like that play in the Eagles home opener as it will have a lot of value in the line but the Giants will want revenge against DJax returning that punt last year so we'll see definitely not touching the Eagles if Vick is in. Wash has a lot of value but Grossman will be rushed in the pocket and Romo will have confidence from the fans and himself after last week. No feel for the MIA game yet but those look like decent leans Ed Reed. Hell I might be takin your Ravens even though it's a square play I think they come out strong after last week's crapper.
BOL with your plays and good seeing you back in here!
I feel as though the Under is the safest play here. Let's break this down.
The Niners have been absolutely atrocious at running the football. Frank Gore has been pathetic along with their offensive line. At 2.8 YPC going against a solid top 10 Cincy run D in YPC allowed lead by Maulauga the Niners won't move the ball on the ground. They also won't move it well in the air. Geathers and the Bengals have a decent pass rush and will give the Niners line a tough time after they just got abused by the Cowboys DLs. San Fran has the 4th worst amount of passing yards so far. Throw in the fact that Crabtree will be rusty if he plays, Edwards is out, Nate Clements a DB is facing his old Niners, Leon Hall and Clements hold the fort for a top 10 Bengals D against the pass, and you have a lot of 3 and outs for Alex Smith and Co.
Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Andy Dalton has actually been pretty decent. However, the Bengals usually need to establish the run to really get him going. That's going to be a massive issue against a San Francisco Defense that is the BEST IN THE LEAGUE AT STOPPING THE RUN. This leads to a lot of 3rd and longs which will be intimidating for Dalton considering that he'll have the jitters playing in his first home opener with the fans actually believing that the Bungles can win. Plus Simpson is out, Green is banged up, and Shipley is out. Benson also had a suspension and it will be tough for young Dalton to have everything running smoothly with all the off-field distractions this week.
Yes the Niners are in a tough spot off of an emotional loss but they are in the thick of it in the pathetic NFC West and they PLAY AT THE EAGLES THE FOLLOWING WEEK. The Niners know they won't win that game so they'll be focused for this one.
Dalton and Smith have only combined for 1 INT so far so I don't think they'll be giving away free points like Luke McCown did against the Jets last week.
Both teams have scored more than 41 in their games but a lot of those were on late garbage time TDs. At 41 with the public banging the over and the total reversing down there is a lot of value taking the Under in what could be a rainy Cincinnati this coming Sunday.
Texans +4 (-106) to win 12 units
First off all I hear is how everyone is AFRAID TO FADE THE SAINTS IN A DOME. What many people forget is that the TEXANS HAVE PLAYED MANY MANY BIG GAMES ON THE ROAD IN A DOME ENVIRONMENT AGAINST THE COLTS. They are ready for this and know that they can go 3-0 for the first time in franchise history. Last year they went 2-0 before collapsing and in 2009 they went 5-2 before blowing their postseason chances. This is the year they make a statement and it starts in this game. Let’s break down the game:
The Saints offense is lead by Drew Brees who has looked terrific so far. The Texans however are ranked #1 against the pass in the league. Now I know they did that against pedestrian QBs in Collins and Henne, but they have looked good and have a new swagger with the additions of Joseph and Manning to complement a LBing core of Cushing, Ryans, and Williams. New Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips has done a good job of getting his line in Watt and others to pressure the QB. I think the Texans D is making this personal as many articles and experts are dismissing their performances against the Colts and Dolphins because they are not elite offenses. I think they humble Brees and the Colston-less Saints. Their linebackers are athletic and can contain TE Jimmy Graham.
On offense the Texans are really balancing out their attack. THEY HAVE THE MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS IN THE LEAGUE. I say this is huge because last week the Bears were able to run it well against the Saints. Unfortunately, they abandoned that game plan and ended up blowing the game. The Texans have a ton of offensive firepower and with a reliable D they no longer feel the need to air it out and score every possession. They will learn from the Bears mistakes last week. I also know Will Smith is back for the Saints but the Texans have a very solid line so Schaub will have time to throw. Tate should get his yards as well and the receivers will do well against a mediocre NO secondary. The final big thing is that JOHNATHAN VILMA IS DOUBTFUL. He is the heart and soul of that defense and the linebackers are disgusting without him.
Gimme the Texans. I think they win straight up but 4 points is too much to pass up.
Buccaneers -1 (-110) to win 15 units
First off this joke of a line can be currently found at Bodog. Second off, this is my biggest play of the week. I had the Falcons last week and I was lucky to have cashed my ticket. They are absolutely overrated.
“Morris, in his third year as coach, has yet to beat Atlanta, losing four games by an average of 5.8 points.
"Can't call it a rivalry yet. We haven't won any of them," Morris said.”
The Bucs have lost many close games to the Falcons the past 2 seasons- 28-24 and 27-21 in 2010 and 20-17 and 20-10 in 2009. These are all tight games but over the 2nd half of the season last year the Bucs competed and beat some very good football teams. Freeman is now very confident and so are the Buccaneers. After dropping an early season stinker against the Lions at home I think the Bucs will be ready to go for this one. They have massive revenge on their minds and know that this game is HUGE in determining their chance to win the division this year. The Falcons also had a real roller coaster game last week against their nemesis Michael Vick. I think they put a ton into that game and might have a real tough time putting together a full 60 minutes in this one…on the road…outdoors…where they stink.
"It's good that the game is at 4. We don't usually start playing until 3:30."- The Bucs are awake for this one and will want to get off to a good start.
The Bucs had a horrible first 6 quarters to the season. They woke up in the 2nd half against the Vikings. They are on a high after that game and will be pumped up for this game. The Atlanta Falcons are ranked 30th against the pass. Dunta Robinson is the only legitimate defensive back in their backfield and even he is nothing special. Winslow, Wiliams and the other Bucs wideouts will have a field day with Freeman throwing. Blount and the Tampa offensive line are very physical and will impose their will against a softer Falcons front 7 IMO.
The Falcons have a solid offense. They should score some points on the Bucs. However, Turner just doesn’t have the explosiveness that he has had in the past. I think Talib can slow down Roddy White from having a huge day. ONE BIG FACTOR THAT MIGHT BE OVERLOOKED IS THE RETURN OF TAMPA’S BEST SAFTEY TARNARD JACKSON FROM A SUSPENSION. His return makes the whole defense more confident and really shores up their secondary.
The line opened at Falcons -1, but the sharps have steamed the Bucs moving it to -2 even with the public on the Falcons. That’s a good sign as I think the Bucs are being disrespected at this price.
Bears +4 (-104) to win 10 units
Both teams come into this intriguing matchup with many question marks and injuries. Let’s take a look at the Bears Offense vs. GB Defense.
The Bears offensive line has had some issues but that was because Matt Forte did not get the ball on the ground enough. Much criticism has been given to the Bears offensive line and fair enough. However, safety Nick Collins is out for the season, Charles Woodson is banged up and Tramon Williams will be a little coming off an injury. This is big because the Bears receivers should be able to get their fair share of short yardage catches since the Packers will be nervous about the Bears getting some deep plays without Collins to cover their ass so they’ll play with a little more caution when you also consider that they are banged up. Clay Matthews is also a bit banged up and Zombo and Neal are out so I think the Bears will be able to pound the ball. Williams is a big target and although Bennett is out I think Sanzenbacher is more than capable in filling in. The Packers have been torched by the Saints and Panthers so I think Cutler will be alright here.
On defense the Bears probably give the Packers the most fits. In Week 17 and the NFC Championship Game the Bears offense did nothing and looked atrocious. However, Urlacher’s boyz held tight and limited the damage from Rodgers and gave the Bears the chance to win both of those games. Now in the NFC Championship game Rodgers was on fire. He wasn’t as sharp against the Panthers. I think the Bears defense will hold the fort.
Cutler and many of the Bears put in bad performances against the Pack in the NFC Championship game so they will badly want to win and avoid falling two games behind the Pack in the division. I also like the Bears’ chances of doing some special teams damage, as the Packers did a terrible job containing Sproles on Special Teams on Opening Night. The weather is supposed to be a rainy mess so I think on this dump Soldier Field turf the Packers potent passing attack will not be as proficient. I like the Bears in a tight matchup here.
Colts +10.5 (-110) to win 7.5 units
I have held out on the Colts the first 2 weeks to hit them against the Steelers here on Primetime. On Primetime at home I fully expect the Colts to give it their all here. The Colts have only given up 3.6 YPC and will surely be focusing on the Mendenhall here. Freeney and Mathis should be able to put enough pressure on Big Ben and a mediocre Steelers O-Line to give its secondary a chance. On the other side of the ball the Colts have been running the ball reasonably well. Although they likely won’t be able to run it against the Steelers I think they will be able to complete a lot of short passes against a banged up secondary. Bryant McFadden is really banged up and likely out for this one. Ike Taylor has never impressed me either. Therefore, I believe Wayne, Collie and Co. will be able to get open and help Collins out. I think the Colts can definitely hang within 10 points at home here.
GL
Also looking hard at the Redskins-Cowboys Under but will obviously wait for line and probably post my play on Monday, as there are a lot of variables with Dallas right now.
NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)
NFL Regular Season-to-date: 5-6-0 (-10.68 units)
Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units 
Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units 
Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units
49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units
LET'S GET THE PAPER BOYZ!
Thanks for the good wishes! I had a nice 4-1 week to bounce back from my 1-5 Week 1 stinker. I like the card I got for this week so hopefully we'll keep moving in the right direction.
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