1. Never play a 4 team 13 point teaser at any odds other then -120
I hear people talking about -140 or -160 type of odds and I can tell you it is not worth it...
I use a mixture of 5 dimes (best place for teasers) and bodog (because the lines lean against square like a parlay card)
2. Play a maximum of 4 games a week.
if you were to randomly pick games +13 points ATS (against the spread), history has shown that you will hit about 84%...
so knowing that more games will hit then not (some games even both sides
will win), then what you are in essence trying to do is avoid
losers... not just focusing on trying to pick winners...
So the more games you pick, the better chance you have of hitting a
loser... Think of it like a mine field, you probably would want to
minimize the number of steps you take to the goal...
I would rather double my bet then try to pick 8 winners...
3. Play only sides
The numbers show historically that both sides and totals hit about 84%, so there is no advantage on either side...
I play only sides because of experience as I have only focused on sides over the years...
Theories
1. Lowering scoring games
I always start by looking at playing on games with the lowest totals because they give the most value to the +13 points ATS...
In a game that has a o/u of 39 points, +13 points ATS is a 3rd of the total...
But in a game that has an o/u of 52 points, + 13 points ATS is a 4th of the total...
So by proportion, the +13 points ATS has more value and more of an effect on the lower scoring game...
2. Playing the points
About 25% of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points...
So being aware of the points is a key... there is big difference
between +3 vs +3.5 or +7 vs +7.5... this is the whole point of teasers
is getting good numbers...
3. Home dog/bye dog combo
I tried to find the angle in the NFL that skews the +13 points ATS the farthest from the about 84%...
Home, away, favorites, underdogs, divisional foes, non divisional foes
and coming off of bye weeks... I even looked at multi-variant analyses
of combinations...
My original theory was in the combination of divisional underdogs, but found no correlation there...
Instead,
based on the historical numbers I found a correlation when the
combination of a home team, that is underdog, coming off of a bye week
hit about 90%... and have watched this trend go longer then 3 seasons at
a time with out failing...
0
Guidelines
1. Never play a 4 team 13 point teaser at any odds other then -120
I hear people talking about -140 or -160 type of odds and I can tell you it is not worth it...
I use a mixture of 5 dimes (best place for teasers) and bodog (because the lines lean against square like a parlay card)
2. Play a maximum of 4 games a week.
if you were to randomly pick games +13 points ATS (against the spread), history has shown that you will hit about 84%...
so knowing that more games will hit then not (some games even both sides
will win), then what you are in essence trying to do is avoid
losers... not just focusing on trying to pick winners...
So the more games you pick, the better chance you have of hitting a
loser... Think of it like a mine field, you probably would want to
minimize the number of steps you take to the goal...
I would rather double my bet then try to pick 8 winners...
3. Play only sides
The numbers show historically that both sides and totals hit about 84%, so there is no advantage on either side...
I play only sides because of experience as I have only focused on sides over the years...
Theories
1. Lowering scoring games
I always start by looking at playing on games with the lowest totals because they give the most value to the +13 points ATS...
In a game that has a o/u of 39 points, +13 points ATS is a 3rd of the total...
But in a game that has an o/u of 52 points, + 13 points ATS is a 4th of the total...
So by proportion, the +13 points ATS has more value and more of an effect on the lower scoring game...
2. Playing the points
About 25% of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points...
So being aware of the points is a key... there is big difference
between +3 vs +3.5 or +7 vs +7.5... this is the whole point of teasers
is getting good numbers...
3. Home dog/bye dog combo
I tried to find the angle in the NFL that skews the +13 points ATS the farthest from the about 84%...
Home, away, favorites, underdogs, divisional foes, non divisional foes
and coming off of bye weeks... I even looked at multi-variant analyses
of combinations...
My original theory was in the combination of divisional underdogs, but found no correlation there...
Instead,
based on the historical numbers I found a correlation when the
combination of a home team, that is underdog, coming off of a bye week
hit about 90%... and have watched this trend go longer then 3 seasons at
a time with out failing...
Interestingly I think that things will get better for teaser players because of the rule changes on kickoffs that will make the NFL lower scoring...
I also think that with the lock out that you will see lower offensive production, especially for teams with new players/coaches/schemes...
There are only two games with a total over 45...
So here we go...
I will start off with the lowest scoring games first...
BAL +12
not the best number, but this match of PIT@BAL has gone under 4 out of the last 5 years which gives the +13 points ATS more value...
I have to admit that I am also riding the superbowl loser trend, but mainly because it is the lowest scoring total on the board...
Interestingly the last four meetings of these two teams have been decided by exactly 3 points... and 5 out of the last 6 regular season meetings have been decided by exactly 3 points... so with a history of lower scoring/close games I think the +11 line has value...
0
Interestingly I think that things will get better for teaser players because of the rule changes on kickoffs that will make the NFL lower scoring...
I also think that with the lock out that you will see lower offensive production, especially for teams with new players/coaches/schemes...
There are only two games with a total over 45...
So here we go...
I will start off with the lowest scoring games first...
BAL +12
not the best number, but this match of PIT@BAL has gone under 4 out of the last 5 years which gives the +13 points ATS more value...
I have to admit that I am also riding the superbowl loser trend, but mainly because it is the lowest scoring total on the board...
Interestingly the last four meetings of these two teams have been decided by exactly 3 points... and 5 out of the last 6 regular season meetings have been decided by exactly 3 points... so with a history of lower scoring/close games I think the +11 line has value...
CIN@CLE actually has the lowest total at 35.5 but a tough line...
CIN +20 would make sense if they were not so bad on offense and having a rookie QB... I can honestly see them not finding the end zone... and at the same time taking CLE at only +6 does not seem like enough value for +13 points ATS...
I think the exact same thing could be said for the CAR@ARZ game which is 36.5, the next lowest total... rookie QB, changes in offense and ARZ at +5 or 6 just does not have value...
But I am thinking about the SEA@SF game... Both teams have changes (SEA = new qb, SF = new coaching)... But the number also long as it is +8 or +7.5 getting more then a TD is a game to consider for me...
Similarly PHI@STL gives a line of PHI +8 which gives you better then a TD, but I wonder about PHI and all the hype of their off season acquisitions actually resulting in their line because inflated...
But this is what I got so far...
BAL: +11 SF +8 PHI +8.5
Anyone more ideas or suggestions?
Kinda scary that I am crossing the zero on all of these picks so far...
0
CIN@CLE actually has the lowest total at 35.5 but a tough line...
CIN +20 would make sense if they were not so bad on offense and having a rookie QB... I can honestly see them not finding the end zone... and at the same time taking CLE at only +6 does not seem like enough value for +13 points ATS...
I think the exact same thing could be said for the CAR@ARZ game which is 36.5, the next lowest total... rookie QB, changes in offense and ARZ at +5 or 6 just does not have value...
But I am thinking about the SEA@SF game... Both teams have changes (SEA = new qb, SF = new coaching)... But the number also long as it is +8 or +7.5 getting more then a TD is a game to consider for me...
Similarly PHI@STL gives a line of PHI +8 which gives you better then a TD, but I wonder about PHI and all the hype of their off season acquisitions actually resulting in their line because inflated...
But this is what I got so far...
BAL: +11 SF +8 PHI +8.5
Anyone more ideas or suggestions?
Kinda scary that I am crossing the zero on all of these picks so far...
I actually like WAS as a home dog.. what scares me though is that NYG has beaten WAS in their last 5 meetings and last 5 in WAS... Last year they won by 3 at WAS but the blow out potential is there...
0
Quote Originally Posted by Messier-11:
redskins +16
bears +16
chargers+4
these 3 look the best to me so far
I actually like WAS as a home dog.. what scares me though is that NYG has beaten WAS in their last 5 meetings and last 5 in WAS... Last year they won by 3 at WAS but the blow out potential is there...
CHI +16.. I actually think that all of the negative press/perception if cutler will actually step up this year. I do question his WRs, but if CHI can be effective in the air if they get down by 2TDs or more they might be able to the game closer. Especially if ATL decides to run the ball if they get up...
Messier, the use if home dogs seem like it makes sense, although historically they do not different significantly from home favs/away
0
CHI +16.. I actually think that all of the negative press/perception if cutler will actually step up this year. I do question his WRs, but if CHI can be effective in the air if they get down by 2TDs or more they might be able to the game closer. Especially if ATL decides to run the ball if they get up...
Messier, the use if home dogs seem like it makes sense, although historically they do not different significantly from home favs/away
Yikes! I love where you're coming from here, as these are the bread and butter, and basis for forming of FreeMoneyInc.
But damn you really ARE crossing the 0 too often! Seattle+19 is absolutely the way to go in that Niner game, you kidding??? The Niners are horrid, and will not be beating anybody by 20 points. Seattle wins this game, I won't have to watch one play. THAT is my goal with monster teasers (I too am on bodog solely for these).
I take the most talented underdogs, preferably in division games against inferior opponents. Seattle fits this to a tee this week. I hate Pittsburgh but have to roll with the trend of close games between them and Baltimore - and though I want BMore to win the game, I know I won't have a problem with Steelers +16
Hate crossing the zero but if you're gonna do it, TAKE THE PATS! I had to get over what my heart says to win at this, and at least if the Steelers or Pats get blown out, its money well spent
Finally, if you insist on a 4th game (sometimes we ditch the 4th game and three points) I'm leaning on the Skins+16...but I think I like dropping 3 points and going:
Seattle+16 Pittsburgh+13 New England+3
I usually prefer much bigger points on my teasers, but the matchups and the Patriots are just screaming Free Money :D
BOL either way!
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
CIN@CLE actually has the lowest total at 35.5 but a tough line...
CIN +20 would make sense if they were not so bad on offense and having a rookie QB... I can honestly see them not finding the end zone... and at the same time taking CLE at only +6 does not seem like enough value for +13 points ATS...
I think the exact same thing could be said for the CAR@ARZ game which is 36.5, the next lowest total... rookie QB, changes in offense and ARZ at +5 or 6 just does not have value...
But I am thinking about the SEA@SF game... Both teams have changes (SEA = new qb, SF = new coaching)... But the number also long as it is +8 or +7.5 getting more then a TD is a game to consider for me...
Similarly PHI@STL gives a line of PHI +8 which gives you better then a TD, but I wonder about PHI and all the hype of their off season acquisitions actually resulting in their line because inflated...
But this is what I got so far...
BAL: +11 SF +8 PHI +8.5
Anyone more ideas or suggestions?
Kinda scary that I am crossing the zero on all of these picks so far...
0
Yikes! I love where you're coming from here, as these are the bread and butter, and basis for forming of FreeMoneyInc.
But damn you really ARE crossing the 0 too often! Seattle+19 is absolutely the way to go in that Niner game, you kidding??? The Niners are horrid, and will not be beating anybody by 20 points. Seattle wins this game, I won't have to watch one play. THAT is my goal with monster teasers (I too am on bodog solely for these).
I take the most talented underdogs, preferably in division games against inferior opponents. Seattle fits this to a tee this week. I hate Pittsburgh but have to roll with the trend of close games between them and Baltimore - and though I want BMore to win the game, I know I won't have a problem with Steelers +16
Hate crossing the zero but if you're gonna do it, TAKE THE PATS! I had to get over what my heart says to win at this, and at least if the Steelers or Pats get blown out, its money well spent
Finally, if you insist on a 4th game (sometimes we ditch the 4th game and three points) I'm leaning on the Skins+16...but I think I like dropping 3 points and going:
Seattle+16 Pittsburgh+13 New England+3
I usually prefer much bigger points on my teasers, but the matchups and the Patriots are just screaming Free Money :D
BOL either way!
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
CIN@CLE actually has the lowest total at 35.5 but a tough line...
CIN +20 would make sense if they were not so bad on offense and having a rookie QB... I can honestly see them not finding the end zone... and at the same time taking CLE at only +6 does not seem like enough value for +13 points ATS...
I think the exact same thing could be said for the CAR@ARZ game which is 36.5, the next lowest total... rookie QB, changes in offense and ARZ at +5 or 6 just does not have value...
But I am thinking about the SEA@SF game... Both teams have changes (SEA = new qb, SF = new coaching)... But the number also long as it is +8 or +7.5 getting more then a TD is a game to consider for me...
Similarly PHI@STL gives a line of PHI +8 which gives you better then a TD, but I wonder about PHI and all the hype of their off season acquisitions actually resulting in their line because inflated...
But this is what I got so far...
BAL: +11 SF +8 PHI +8.5
Anyone more ideas or suggestions?
Kinda scary that I am crossing the zero on all of these picks so far...
I teased a LOT of totals in preseason - look at Week 3 of preseason - where all 15 games teased over until MNF (Jets/Giants).
I actually think totals can make sense - how does DEN/OAK teased down to 27 not seem like better than 84% chance to hit.
I also agree if you are going thru 0 - NE has to be included. It's too bad line moved from 4.5 to 7 - as teasing at 4.5 to 8.5 is a lot better than teasing to 6.
0
I teased a LOT of totals in preseason - look at Week 3 of preseason - where all 15 games teased over until MNF (Jets/Giants).
I actually think totals can make sense - how does DEN/OAK teased down to 27 not seem like better than 84% chance to hit.
I also agree if you are going thru 0 - NE has to be included. It's too bad line moved from 4.5 to 7 - as teasing at 4.5 to 8.5 is a lot better than teasing to 6.
Steelers 15.5 Everyone knows that Joe Flacco cannot defeat Big Ben in the past 3 seasons.
Cardinals +6 The lack of OTAs for Cam Newton will either keep this game close or completely getting dominated.
Patriots +6 Not only have the Patriots beat the Dolphins with Henne center, but completely dominated them both times. This divisional rivalry has the away team winning most of the time. Patriots are away.
0
Steelers 15.5 Everyone knows that Joe Flacco cannot defeat Big Ben in the past 3 seasons.
Cardinals +6 The lack of OTAs for Cam Newton will either keep this game close or completely getting dominated.
Patriots +6 Not only have the Patriots beat the Dolphins with Henne center, but completely dominated them both times. This divisional rivalry has the away team winning most of the time. Patriots are away.
I am with you on NE... Althought it is a higher scoring game, I see them as being able to get a SU win here and in reality may be better suited for 6 point teaser... however getting more then an FG cushion is helpful...
The trend with the away teams in this match is an interesting one, but I think that sometimes trends with teams like NE are flawed because of their undefeated regular season and the one year that cassel took over for brady...
What I do like is that NE should be better prepared for a MIA team that is still trying to figure alot on the offensive side of the ball... This is where the lock out favors a team like NE with brady and a concept and identity and hinders team that lack identity/roles and is still figuring it out like MIA...
0
gunshard and freemoney...
I am with you on NE... Althought it is a higher scoring game, I see them as being able to get a SU win here and in reality may be better suited for 6 point teaser... however getting more then an FG cushion is helpful...
The trend with the away teams in this match is an interesting one, but I think that sometimes trends with teams like NE are flawed because of their undefeated regular season and the one year that cassel took over for brady...
What I do like is that NE should be better prepared for a MIA team that is still trying to figure alot on the offensive side of the ball... This is where the lock out favors a team like NE with brady and a concept and identity and hinders team that lack identity/roles and is still figuring it out like MIA...
I am with you on NE... Althought it is a higher scoring game, I see them as being able to get a SU win here and in reality may be better suited for 6 point teaser... however getting more then an FG cushion is helpful...
The trend with the away teams in this match is an interesting one, but I think that sometimes trends with teams like NE are flawed because of their undefeated regular season and the one year that cassel took over for brady...
What I do like is that NE should be better prepared for a MIA team that is still trying to figure alot on the offensive side of the ball... This is where the lock out favors a team like NE with brady and a concept and identity and hinders team that lack identity/roles and is still figuring it out like MIA...
I agree with adding NE. Their 1st 2 games of preseason is indicative of what they will do in the regular season.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
gunshard and freemoney...
I am with you on NE... Althought it is a higher scoring game, I see them as being able to get a SU win here and in reality may be better suited for 6 point teaser... however getting more then an FG cushion is helpful...
The trend with the away teams in this match is an interesting one, but I think that sometimes trends with teams like NE are flawed because of their undefeated regular season and the one year that cassel took over for brady...
What I do like is that NE should be better prepared for a MIA team that is still trying to figure alot on the offensive side of the ball... This is where the lock out favors a team like NE with brady and a concept and identity and hinders team that lack identity/roles and is still figuring it out like MIA...
I agree with adding NE. Their 1st 2 games of preseason is indicative of what they will do in the regular season.
So glad you started it. Have you thought of doing different variations of 4 team parlays? For example, I have one right now that is a 4-team 6-point parlay at +300 odds.
Much better odds mean they don't have to hit nearly as much to be profitable. Not sure how the math holds up with percentages though.
Anyways, thanks for the insight. BOL this year.
0
dl36,
Great thread!
So glad you started it. Have you thought of doing different variations of 4 team parlays? For example, I have one right now that is a 4-team 6-point parlay at +300 odds.
I am not against this idea, especially with KC's QB situation... But I am seriously considering fading bad teams this season because of the lock out (BUF, CIN JAX?, SEA)
what are your thoughts on this game and a possible SU win?
0
Quote Originally Posted by mrbelvidere2010:
Bills + 19.5 they will win outright
I am not against this idea, especially with KC's QB situation... But I am seriously considering fading bad teams this season because of the lock out (BUF, CIN JAX?, SEA)
what are your thoughts on this game and a possible SU win?
dl36: do you mix in any CFL games with your teasers? What are your best practices regarding crossing 0 on teasers as well?
I do not mix College... the math would indicate that there is more variance in college because of higher scoring variability with larger spreads, totals and unpredictability...
So the 13 points you get is weaker in strength then in the NFL... I admit that I have not crunched the numbers on this since like late 1990s to early 2000s. but the trend was always the same with higher variance from the spread in college then NFL...
In the NFL there are games that are teams that are close in ability, rivals that are familiar with each other and we can look at plenty of recent meetings for data...
PIT@BAL is a good example of this... closely matched, good defenses/lower scoring, recent match ups have been close...
It could be said that those are the best games to bet on because it doesnt even matter which side you are on the final score will fall with in the 26 point window of the spread...
0
Quote Originally Posted by BarcsHasBite:
dl36: do you mix in any CFL games with your teasers? What are your best practices regarding crossing 0 on teasers as well?
I do not mix College... the math would indicate that there is more variance in college because of higher scoring variability with larger spreads, totals and unpredictability...
So the 13 points you get is weaker in strength then in the NFL... I admit that I have not crunched the numbers on this since like late 1990s to early 2000s. but the trend was always the same with higher variance from the spread in college then NFL...
In the NFL there are games that are teams that are close in ability, rivals that are familiar with each other and we can look at plenty of recent meetings for data...
PIT@BAL is a good example of this... closely matched, good defenses/lower scoring, recent match ups have been close...
It could be said that those are the best games to bet on because it doesnt even matter which side you are on the final score will fall with in the 26 point window of the spread...
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