Why Green Bay Is Favored And Spread May Go UP....

Question

In my opinion this is very simple. In games as evenly matched as this Superbowl appears to be, the general football watching public is going to side with the team that they "like" better. In this setting we have:

Team A (Packers)- 6th seeded upstarts with everybody's new favorite Quarterback Aaron Rodgers on a team that has not made the Big Game in almost 15 years vs......

Team B (Steelers)- A team that has won two of the last five Superbowls (people are tired of them) lead by a contoversial quarterback (face of team) who's popularity rating is extremely low, ESPECIALLY with women.

Point Being: This isn't an ordinary game, it's the Superbowl. And everybody and their wife, mom and brother is gonna come out and make a bet on the team that they "Like" the best. IMO, the game could go either way but from a purely unbiased, mathematical perspective, why wouldn't you bet on Pittsburgh and take the extra value with the moneyline?

CorneliusCook · Answer

In my opinion this is very simple. In games as evenly matched as this Superbowl appears to be, the general football watching public is going to side with the team that they "like" better. In this setting we have:

Team A (Packers)- 6th seeded upstarts with everybody's new favorite Quarterback Aaron Rodgers on a team that has not made the Big Game in almost 15 years vs......

Team B (Steelers)- A team that has won two of the last five Superbowls (people are tired of them) lead by a contoversial quarterback (face of team) who's popularity rating is extremely low, ESPECIALLY with women.

Point Being: This isn't an ordinary game, it's the Superbowl. And everybody and their wife, mom and brother is gonna come out and make a bet on the team that they "Like" the best. IMO, the game could go either way but from a purely unbiased, mathematical perspective, why wouldn't you bet on Pittsburgh and take the extra value with the moneyline?

d_monay · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by CorneliusCook]  In my opinion this is very simple. In games as evenly matched as this Superbowl appears to be, the general football watching public is going to side with the team that they "like" better. In this setting we have:&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Team A (Packers)- 6th seeded upstarts with everybody&#x27;s new favorite Quarterback Aaron Rodgers on a team that has not made the Big Game in almost 15 years vs......&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Team B (Steelers)- A team that has won two of the last five Superbowls (people are tired of them) lead by a contoversial quarterback (face of team) who&#x27;s popularity rating is extremely low, ESPECIALLY with women.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Point Being: This isn&#x27;t an ordinary game, it&#x27;s the Superbowl. And everybody and their wife, mom and brother is gonna come out and make a bet on the team that they "Like" the best. IMO, the game could go either way but from a purely unbiased, mathematical perspective, why wouldn&#x27;t you bet on Pittsburgh and take the extra value with the moneyline?&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; I agree 100%     Bettors would have to be stupid not to take the points!! Why not??

RJSizzle · Answer

A bettor with no brain and with no knowledge of Football? This is exactly what he should do. We all know this is amateur hour, though. This line is not set like the rest of the season. This one takes public perception into account. Perception is that Green Bay is rolling, they are the sexy-pick. Therefore most people betting the Super Bowl would not look much further. If someone had no perception? Yeah, its the Steelers all the way. But there is this perception that everyone has about the Pack and its not going to go away overnight.

HutchEmAll · Answer

Green Bay is the hottest thing going and they won 3 games in a row on the road over the top 3 seeds in the NFC (while demolishing the #1 seed). Not to mention they have a huge following. Pitt beat the lower seeds in the AFC at home. On paper, it looks like what GB accomplished is more impressive. But that all depends on how you evaluate the teams these guys played.

But it's not surprising the line scooched up a bit in GB's favor from when it opened.

CorneliusCook · Answer

All valid points. Do you guys think that most of the perception of Green Bay being so hot comes from the blowout of Atlanta? because while I was impressed with the win, I thought that the game was two BAD Matt Ryan turnovers away from being a close shootout. An INT in the end zone and a 10 point swing right before half really changed the complexion of that game immensely. Granted GB "forced" those turnovers but fortune like that doesn't happen all the time.

I just don't see why Green Bay is favored EXCEPT for the fact that they are the more popular team. This may be a good opportunity for an informed bettor to make a killing!

I_won_the_money · Answer

I like the way you think. Instead of throwing stats and trends and bla bla bla at us, you make an argument by being a realist. Refreshing to see.

That said I am leaning GB and Under ... but not sold completely yet

D_Unit · Answer

Take a 6 pt teaser on Pitt&#x2B;8.5/Under 51  and be done with it.

CorneliusCook · Answer

Under looks good considering that historically about 2 of 3 Superbowls go under...and as far as the winner, Unsurprisingly the outcome should come down to turnovers.

Green Bay probably won't muster much of a run game meaning that Rodgers will be throwing A LOT. If he plays a pretty flawless game, they should win. Two turnovers and it'll go Pitt's way. Throw all the stats and trends away, it probably is THIS simple.

Why Green Bay Is Favored And Spread May Go UP....

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