NFL Conference Championships! What if I told you...

We all know the lines are pretty sharp, especially in championships.  The fact of the matter is this...the spreads are only created for one reason and one reason only...to get equal amounts of money on each side.  That is all that the books really care about it.

Now that is where we can come in and take advantage of this.  The spread does not predict the outcomes of games...rather it predicts the outcome of the betting public (squares and sharps included).  Why line changes?  Because one side is getting too much money and they are trying to balance the sheet out.  This is just as much an economics lesson than it is anything else.  Today, in fact this entire week, there has been a great opportunity for us to take advantage of one of the lines that is in our favor today!  I have been placing wagers all week, and been in contact with a lot of different people on this game.  The line has now moved from -3 Pitt to -3.5, and even -4 in some places.  I can assure you that does not bother me one bit as I place my biggest wager so far this year.

A lot of factors go into my spreadsheet (in fact, it is just a two-sided piece of paper...I am old school and do all of my crunching on paper).  Without telling you exactly my formula, I will let you know that hundreds of stats and variables go into my crunching.  Some of which include home/away stats, 3rd Down conversion, penalties, Turnover ratio, red zone, KO return, etc. 

Now, it is important to remember that not only stats count in this whole equation.  If only stats counted I would have lost my ass already and some Harvard or MIT kid would make it rich.  But the numbers, stats, etc. only paint part of the pitcher.  The other part is up to us to figure out...and I have consistently done that with the help of others lately. 

The Jets played their AFC Championship game and their Super Bowl last week against the Patriots.  Not that one team wants a win more than another, because these guys are professionals and they all want to win...but the Jets brought a little extra last week both verbally, and more importantly, physically.  Can they bring that same effort, energy, etc. again today?  I do NOT see that happening...this a team that has spent most of the last 2 months on the road, and this is going to finally catch up to them today in this spot.  They are coming off their biggest high collectively as a franchise.  Now, some are going to say that they are peaking at the right time...I am not going to try and argue that...because you can make that arguement...I will say this though...I am on Pittsburgh -3 and Pittsburgh -3.5 BIG!

Good Luck to everyone!