Some NFL playoff history to consider…

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Some NFL playoff history to consider…
veeman PM veeman
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:14:04 PM

If you are leaning toward the road teams this year in the first round like I am, then visit recent history with me. It may lead you to a re-consideration. I only had to go back the last two seasons to get a trend and here is what I found:

 

08-09 Season

Round #1 – 2 Home (H) Wins (W) / 2 Away (A) Wins

Round #2 – 3 H W / 1 A W

Champ Round – 2 H W

 

09-10 Season (Last Year)

Round #1 – 2 H W / 2 A W

Round #2 – 3 H W / 1 A W

Champ Round – 2 H W

 

So, identical. Each outright winner covered to the best of my knowledge except the Saints when the Vikings and Favre got in under the number in the Champ Round last year.

 

Let’s go back to the Leans now: if only two, maybe three of these road teams win Wildcard Weekend, who are they?

 

Let’s grant the Ravens a spot.

 

Then, can Seattle prevent the Saints from winning? – that I highly doubt and if they win, it will wreck 80 to 90% of the teasers and parlays out there (avoid those at all costs on any weekend).

 

That leaves us with the Jets/Colts and Packers/Eagles games. Will they buck the trend? Both doing it seems highly unlikely, even one of them winning goes against the grain in the last two years… 
 

Here is my wagering take right now:

 

Seahawks/Saints - No Play – too many points to give but Saints win. Nothing more painful than leading a 10 pt spread by 31-14 in the last quarter and some douche bag gets an easy score for the losers and they go for two and make it!

 

Jets lose, 24-20 Manning engineers something from nothing in the last three minutes.

 

Ravens win, 20-13 in typical fashion, not pretty but effective. Ray Ray Rice and Ray Ray Lewis can bring it.

 

Packers are the big question. Since they are my team and I am probably the senior veteran here on Covers that is a Cheesehead, I will respectively decline to pick this one. I can only hope they contain Vick (he has a history of tormenting the Packers) and that Rodgers stays upright through the entire slugfest. This will be physical and very close, that much I will predict. What really scares me is Andy Reid is 7-1 in first round playoff games...

 

Net, net – two days ago I was ready to take all the road teams, laying the wood or taking the points and hope to collect three wins, no problem. After thinking about it and looking at what seems to happen lately, I am reduced to:

 

Colts -2 ½ and Ravens -3. 

 

GL everybody,

v.

veeman PM veeman
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:20:27 PM
I could not fit it in but I wanted to add the Ravens have been road winners in the first round the past two seasons. Flacco/Rice/Lewis/Reed and Company travel well on Wildcard Weekend.
popeofpicks PM popeofpicks
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:42:26 PM
Nice writeup veeman, thanks and good luck. 
doccocaubai PM doccocaubai
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:51:09 PM
lightsout2184 PM lightsout2184
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:56:31 PM
yeah but this is the first year that 3 road teams have better records then the home team. not saying your wrong and the home teams wont win but completly different situation this year.
ratherBgambling PM ratherBgambling
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Posted: 1/8/2011 12:59:59 PM
bol 
tljd PM tljd
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Posted: 1/8/2011 1:08:15 PM
Nice post Veeman. Good info. Glad you're still kicking around here.
clepto PM clepto
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Posted: 1/8/2011 2:01:59 PM

Good info veeman and good to see you around but I gotta believe we're destined for another Jets/Patriots matchup this season. Jets ML is my only play today.

veeman PM veeman
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Posted: 1/8/2011 4:16:27 PM

Thanks, everybody for stopping in with a comment and best of luck on your plays today and tomorrow.

Still sitting out the first game, resisting the temptation to grab the 1/2 the books are trolling out there to get some 9.5 backers for the Saints. On the road, I just have to say no but I have no faith in Seattle either.

So it's wait until this evening and go with Peyton & Crew.

v.

veeman PM veeman
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Posted: 1/8/2011 4:21:06 PM
Ended up getting Colts at -2.
ndsent1 PM ndsent1
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Posted: 1/8/2011 4:24:40 PM
jintsrule PM jintsrule
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Posted: 1/8/2011 4:31:29 PM
veeman,been a long time good to see your still around, my book has shithawks+11 so i took it plus the over 44 gl 2nite buddy
veeman PM veeman
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Posted: 1/8/2011 6:41:13 PM

Gintsrule - Great call on both!

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