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For those taking future prices on teams to win the conference or superbowl...

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Posted: #1
STOP! Unless you are using matchbook, you are probably getting severely ripped off by your book. You would make FAR more money simply by betting the team you like in every game, and rolling the entire payout onto the next game. For example, I have seen at least 10 guys taking the Pats to win the superbowl and getting under +120 to +140 to do it. Meanwhile, they are +190 on matchbook. If you don't have matchbook, then bet your team game by game. Do not take the bogus future prices that most books offer come playoff time.


 
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Posted: #2
Good advice.  Or at least check out Matchbook.  If you're not getting very close to what you can get on Matchbook, then don't do it.
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks, Rangerz.  That is great advice, I played the Pats to win the AFC a couple of weeks ago.  Now I'm realizing that may have been a mistake based on your logic. 
 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

STOP! Unless you are using matchbook, you are probably getting severely ripped off by your book. You would make FAR more money simply by betting the team you like in every game, and rolling the entire payout onto the next game. For example, I have seen at least 10 guys taking the Pats to win the superbowl and getting under +120 to +140 to do it. Meanwhile, they are +190 on matchbook. If you don't have matchbook, then bet your team game by game. Do not take the bogus future prices that most books offer come playoff time.


 

but, but , but...  matchbook doesnt have model with bikini tops of my books name on it !! 

 
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Posted: #5
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Flash_Man:

Thanks, Rangerz.  That is great advice, I played the Pats to win the AFC a couple of weeks ago.  Now I'm realizing that may have been a mistake based on your logic. 


What price did you get? If it's better then -120 its a good bet.
 
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Posted: #7
futures bets are always a rip off... all you have to do is add up the percentages, and see that something that should add up to 100%, actually adds up to 250%... huge scam!
 
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Posted: #8
Mostly, I've got a few better than matchbook prices.


 
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Posted: #9
Well said Ranger! Here is an example.

Assume:  
- Pats future bet to win superbowl is +170 (as given on BetUS)
- Pats are -150 ML in every game (Divisional/Conference/Superbowl)

so:

By betting each game individually and rolling the total.......
Divisional Round: Bet 1.5 units to win 1.0 units, new total 2.5 units
Conf Round: Bet 2.5 units to win 1.67 units, new total 4.17 units
Superbowl: Bet 4.17 units to win 2.77 units, new total 6.94 units

By betting the future.....
Bet 4.17 units to win 7.08 units

Of course there are some huge assumptions in predicting the ML spread of every Pats playoff game but you get the point.  Make sure you are getting a good ROI before betting these futures.

 
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Posted: #10
OK i am an idiot forgot to add back in the bet total. The future bet at +170 would return 7.08 units + 4.17 units for a total of 11.25 units. a huge gain by betting the future.  I TAKE IT BACK!



 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

Well said Ranger! Here is an example.

Assume:  
- Pats future bet to win superbowl is +170 (as given on BetUS)
- Pats are -150 ML in every game (Divisional/Conference/Superbowl)

so:

By betting each game individually and rolling the total.......
Divisional Round: Bet 1.5 units to win 1.0 units, new total 2.5 units
Conf Round: Bet 2.5 units to win 1.67 units, new total 4.17 units
Superbowl: Bet 4.17 units to win 2.77 units, new total 6.94 units

By betting the future.....
Bet 4.17 units to win 7.08 units

Of course there are some huge assumptions in predicting the ML spread of every Pats playoff game but you get the point.  Make sure you are getting a good ROI before betting these futures.



Glad to see someone who understands the math aspect but the Pats will be higher then -150 in their AFC games. I think they will be -225-250 in the second round and -180ish in the AFC title game. Otherwise you got it.


 
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Posted: #12
Rangerz, since i like PIT in this tournament. How are Steelers +250 to win AFC title and +550 to win SB XLV looking to you? Louzy price? Thanks!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Rangerz, since i like PIT in this tournament. How are Steelers +250 to win AFC title and +550 to win SB XLV looking to you? Louzy price? Thanks!


Well Pitt is +300 to win the AFC, and +600 to win the superbowl on matchbook so at least your prices are CLOSE to the true value. Saw a guy taking Falcons +400 to win it all when they should be closer to +700. That one frustrated me but at least your prices are comparable.

GL bud.
 
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Posted: #14

i posted my wagers already on pits + 305  and + 555

 

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

Well said Ranger! Here is an example.

Assume:  
- Pats future bet to win superbowl is +170 (as given on BetUS)
- Pats are -150 ML in every game (Divisional/Conference/Superbowl)

so:

By betting each game individually and rolling the total.......
Divisional Round: Bet 1.5 units to win 1.0 units, new total 2.5 units
Conf Round: Bet 2.5 units to win 1.67 units, new total 4.17 units
Superbowl: Bet 4.17 units to win 2.77 units, new total 6.94 units

By betting the future.....
Bet 4.17 units to win 7.08 units

Of course there are some huge assumptions in predicting the ML spread of every Pats playoff game but you get the point.  Make sure you are getting a good ROI before betting these futures.

 

Your way off base., you won't win any prizes for your math skills.

In your example of betting ML's you started with 1.5 units of your money " not 4.17", therefore betting the futures you would bet 1.5 units at +170, or a profit of 2.55 units. 

Your prfit on ML's in your example would be 5.44 units.

The 4.17 units is after you already profitted by 2 wins on ML's, your orginal bet was only 1.5 units, so starting with the same exact orginal bet would be 1.5 units in each example.

 

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Superfigg:

 

but, but , but...  matchbook doesnt have model with bikini tops of my books name on it !! 

 
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Posted: #17
Amazing some of the futures I have seen. Examples:

- Balt taken at +700 to win the AFC before the playoffs started. The value of the Ravens before the playoffs started to win the AFC was +1200 and they are STILL +600 to win it. So obviously +700 before the Chiefs game was ridiculous.

-Packers +500 to win the NFC before the BEARS GAME. I mean come on. The Pack were +800 to win the NFC on matchbook before the Eagles game and +1000 before the Bears game, yet people accept +500.

Obviously both of these future wagers RIGHT NOW are looking pretty solid, but people seriously need to be informed on what the true value of your future bet is at the time of the wager. I have nothing against any of the futures played (including the ones above) but for them, they deserve a better payout if they go on to win it. I just hate seeing people getting taken advantage of by their book.

The bottomline is, if you are unsure if the price you are taking is the true value of the bet...

USE MATCHBOOK TO COMPARE! Please.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

 

-Packers +500 to win the NFC before the BEARS GAME. I mean come on. The Pack were +800 to win the NFC on matchbook before the Eagles game and +1000 before the Bears game, yet people accept +500.


I got the Pack at +2500 on Bodog the day after they lost to the Patriots.  Wishing I put more than $40 on it now....
 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by MrTuttle05:


I got the Pack at +2500 on Bodog the day after they lost to the Patriots.  Wishing I put more than $40 on it now....


+2500? Nice! I got +2000 on it after the Patriots game once I heard word they would make the playoffs after winning out. Your +2500 is a great find!


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