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[NFL Betting] Topic: Wildcard History - Home/Away and Score Differential (2000-2009) |
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tuttleberry |
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#1 Posted: 1/4/2011 10:51:19 AM
The home team won 25 of the 40 games (home team is 25-15)
The winning team won by more than 10 points in 25 of the 40 games.
Of the 25 home wins:
15 were by 10 points or more.
10 were by less than 10 points.
Of the 15 away wins
10 were by 10 points or more.
5 were by less than 10 points.
-All 4 home teams won in only 2 of the past 10 years (2000,2006).
-3 of the 4 away teams won in only 2 of the past 10 years (2004,2005).
-No away sweeps (all 4 gms) in the period from 2000-2009.
Two projections we can make for this weekend:
1 - We will probably see at least one home win of more than 10 points.
2 - There's an even to better-than-even chance that none of the games will give us an away winner of less than 10 points. It's almost guaranteed that we will not see 2 games with an away winner of less than 10 points.
What does this tell us? Most importantly, we'd better get our sides (winners) right before we worry about putting teams into teasers. Chances are if we get the side wrong, our teasers are going to lose, due to all the high-point-differential games that have taken place during Wildcard weekend over the past 10 years.
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gambling-devil |
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#2 Posted: 1/4/2011 11:33:58 AM
thanks!
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Europa |
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#3 Posted: 1/4/2011 11:38:53 AM |
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HEFADEME |
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#4 Posted: 1/4/2011 11:47:30 AM
Did you also break down faves/dogs record ATS? I used to have that info, but lost it a couple of years ago. The trends were that dogs tended to cover in the wildcard round, faves in the divisional round, then dogs again in the conference round. That may have changed in the last few years though.
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tuttleberry |
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#5 Posted: 1/4/2011 11:53:41 AM
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dangerousaction |
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#6 Posted: 1/4/2011 11:56:38 AM
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HEFADEME |
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#7 Posted: 1/4/2011 12:03:58 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tuttleberry:
No, I don't have the lines for the 40 WC games. I guess I could try to find it on the internet somewhere. I know Covers has these numbers, but I think you have to go through each individual team to get the game info.
No prob, it's not that important. I was just curious
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theclaw |
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#8 Posted: 1/4/2011 12:51:00 PM  |
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gambling-devil |
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#9 Posted: 1/4/2011 1:47:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by dangerousaction:
Forget the point spreads, the dog usually wins outright without the points and the favorite usually wins and covers the points, if you can pick the winner, they'd usually cover as a favorite and win outright if a dog. Problem is, which home team is going to win and which away team is going to win???? Seahawks and Chiefs lose? or do they win?! Smart thing to do is play the dogs on the Moneyline and to play the favorites on the spread.
I would not go as far as playing ML for team such as the Seahawks.
It, however, seemed there is no need to buy points int the playoffs. Team will either cover or fail to cover the spread flat out.
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tuttleberry |
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#10 Posted: 1/4/2011 2:55:59 PM
Quick breakdown:
7 home dogs in the 40 games:
4 of the 7 home dogs won the game outright (ML winner)
Of the 3 losing home dogs, 1 covered the spread.
Note: All of the home dogs were 7-pt dogs or less. No 10-pt lines like Sea.
33 home favs in the 40 games:
15 teams were favored by 3 or less. Those teams went 8-7 ML and 6-9 ATS.
13 teams were favored by 3.5 to 7 pts. Those teams went 8-5 ML and 6-7 ATS
4 teams were favored by 7.5 to 9.5 pts. Those teams went 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS.
1 team was favored by more than 10: 2007 Ten at SD (-10.5). SD won 17-6, barely covering.
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Europa |
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#11 Posted: 1/4/2011 3:12:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tuttleberry:
Got the lines for the 40 games:
Quick breakdown:
7 home dogs in the 40 games:
4 of the 7 home dogs won the game outright (ML winner)
Of the 3 losing home dogs, 1 covered the spread.
Note: All of the home dogs were 7-pt dogs or less. No 10-pt lines like Sea.
33 home favs in the 40 games:
15 teams were favored by 3 or less. Those teams went 8-7 ML and 6-9 ATS.
13 teams were favored by 3.5 to 7 pts. Those teams went 8-5 ML and 6-7 ATS
4 teams were favored by 7.5 to 9.5 pts. Those teams went 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS.
1 team was favored by more than 10: 2007 Ten at SD (-10.5). SD won 17-6, barely covering.
These are from Vegasinsider.com:
ATS record in WC games since 1978,
-3 pt. dogs...24-17-2
3 1/2-6 1/2 pt. dogs...18-16-1
7-pt. or more dogs...11-12
Home dogs...11-3
Road dogs... 42-42-3
Thanks for your work, TB! |
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alecboyh |
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#12 Posted: 1/4/2011 3:13:03 PM  |
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tuttleberry |
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#13 Posted: 1/4/2011 3:16:29 PM
1 - There is no historical precedent for a Wildcard home dog of more than 10 points (from 2000-2009). We could compare the game to Ten at SD (-10.5) in which SD won by 11. Then we could say that NO will win by about 10, and it's a coin flip as to whether they barely cover or barely don't cover.
2 - History favors KC beating Balt as a slight home dog.
3 - NYJ/Ind and GB/Phi are tossups, history tells us. Pick your winner. Note: the home fav won but did not cover the small spread in only 2 of the 15 games in which the home team was favored by 3 or less.
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tuttleberry |
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#14 Posted: 1/4/2011 3:26:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Europa:
These are from Vegasinsider.com:
ATS record in WC games since 1978,
-3 pt. dogs...24-17-2
3 1/2-6 1/2 pt. dogs...18-16-1
7-pt. or more dogs...11-12
Home dogs...11-3
Road dogs... 42-42-3
Thanks for your work, TB!
Good info, but I like to keep the pre-2000 era seperated from the post-2000 era. Seems like the home favs won and covered more often pre-2000 than post-2000. Actually, it seems like that for the home dogs, too.
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dawniewags |
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#15 Posted: 1/4/2011 4:45:49 PM TY Tuttleberry nice info to take in but not that much to base Wgers on see my thread about wager made on on team to win the bowl and YOU will see the fraud odds on Patriots
TO win the afc and TO win the bowl jump off the page at YOU screaning at YOU DON'T BET the Patriots it's a LOSER
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SuddenDeath |
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#16 Posted: 1/4/2011 5:15:09 PM |
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Europa |
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#17 Posted: 1/4/2011 6:17:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SuddenDeath:
Not to knock your effort of presenting some interesting numbers.I'm a numbers guy and can appreciate them.They are merely facts of the past.You can slice em and dice em and come up with all kinds of entertaing tidbits,however the past never predicts the outcome of the future. I guess thats why they play the games..Handicap the games,not the facts.
There are many ways or angles if you prefer to disect a sport event, such as trends, matchups, public consensus, line movements and so on.
Obviously, trend is the major topic in this thread. And yes, analyzing a trend is also called handicapping the game. |
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FritoLay |
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#18 Posted: 1/4/2011 6:26:32 PM Here are your winners for Wild Card weekend
KC ML +125
Indy -2.5
Philly -2.5
Seattle ML +475 |
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JimMack6 |
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#19 Posted: 1/4/2011 7:35:09 PM |
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tuttleberry |
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#20 Posted: 1/4/2011 7:47:45 PM
To the people who say that this info is not useful in deciding winners this weekend, I personally think the following 2 points are at least worth listening to.
1 - KC plus points or ML is a stronger play based on how many Wildcard home dogs win SU.
2 - I personally think NOS minus points is a stronger play just because no Wildcard home dog has been getting 10+ points in at least 10 years, and maybe ever. Couple that with the fact that over over 65% of Wildcard road victories are by more than 10 points, and you have at least the setting for a NOS cover.
Indy and Philly? No, this info is not much help. I admit it.
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jeremydraul |
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#21 Posted: 1/4/2011 9:41:49 PM
good work, thanks for the insight
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