Reading alot about this game and much of the discussion seems to be about whos covering ATS....I believe its the wrong discussion to be having here....The value in oakland on sunday is on the over.....
The colts have put up 34 30 35 in the past 3 games respectively while the raiders have put up 39 31 28 in their last three... the colts absoluely refuse to play any defense this year and are terrible against the run, oaklands strong point offensively... While i dont look to Jason Cambell to throw all over the field i do expect him to be able to make big plays on play action as the colts look to stop the run....i also look for run dmc to catch some balls for big gains out of the backfield.
On the other side oakland is in the lower third against the run(I know....the colts dont run the ball) but i believe that with the emphasis that the colts put on the pass and the emphasis oakland will put on pass defense these running lanes will be huge and the colts offensive coordinator (Peyton) will take full advantage..i look for the colts to have a 100 plus on the ground here....
That being said the oakland pass defense is 5th in the league...but who have they played...Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Matt Cassel and the best division in football the NFC West with such studs as Alex Smith, Derek Andersen, rookie Sam Bradford(stud to be) and Matt Hasselback...thats 7 of their games versus lower half of the nfl qbs. On the other side of this the 2 times the raiders played Phil Rivers they gave up 280 and 431 yards in the air..Rothlesburger 275......So as you can see the 5th rated pass defense is little more than just a weak, weak Oakland schedule....Peyton is going to tear this defense apart boys!
With all that i gotta believe that this total goes soaring over.
All i hope for in this game is that the raiders dont fall behind early as i dont like their chances at scoring with Jason Cambell having the game on his shoulders.....
Take the over.
GL to everyone
TOO EASY LOCK IT UP BOTH ARE ST
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