Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
Ravens 23 Saints 20
I will be playing the Under Total
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
Close to the OVER on your prediction? Weather will not be a factor!
Like your take on Baltimore-but can't see it staying under.
BOL
I have found the Saints to not be the high scoring team even when they are leading like last week against Rams.
One thing the Saints are doing in games is manage their injuries, ie prevention is better than cure and they are slowing the games up more.
I do see alot of 3 and outs here. I would love to say the scoreline will be like what it will be between Steelers and Jets, ie 13-10 etc but I think there will be plays to get some TDs. But 4 TDs for the Game at the most and that does favor Ravens to win.
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Quote Originally Posted by CASTORTROY:
Close to the OVER on your prediction? Weather will not be a factor!
Like your take on Baltimore-but can't see it staying under.
BOL
I have found the Saints to not be the high scoring team even when they are leading like last week against Rams.
One thing the Saints are doing in games is manage their injuries, ie prevention is better than cure and they are slowing the games up more.
I do see alot of 3 and outs here. I would love to say the scoreline will be like what it will be between Steelers and Jets, ie 13-10 etc but I think there will be plays to get some TDs. But 4 TDs for the Game at the most and that does favor Ravens to win.
Saints will won SU....Vegas wont even give the Ravens -3 in Baltimore,in the cold weather???? bc they doubt the Ravens win......If Vegas was not worried about the Saints winning str8 up the line would be at Balt -3.....They make it under -3 because they are begging for Ravens money.....re-think this one again.....
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Saints will won SU....Vegas wont even give the Ravens -3 in Baltimore,in the cold weather???? bc they doubt the Ravens win......If Vegas was not worried about the Saints winning str8 up the line would be at Balt -3.....They make it under -3 because they are begging for Ravens money.....re-think this one again.....
Saints will won SU....Vegas wont even give the Ravens -3 in Baltimore,in the cold weather???? bc they doubt the Ravens win......If Vegas was not worried about the Saints winning str8 up the line would be at Balt -3.....They make it under -3 because they are begging for Ravens money.....re-think this one again.....
No - they are making you think Saints are a chance. I let the Bookies do all the work for me in prime time type games. They analyse these games in depth and have already decided Ravens will win.
They want the action on New Orleans. They don't want money on Baltimore especially if they assess it as Ravens -3.
It ain't happening. There was already public bias from Ravens game vs a very good Houston team that Ravens were tired etc etc etc. Alot of people saw that.
All I ask is what if Ravens won by 21 and not by a pick 6 in OT?
I'm sure then the Ravens would be a -3 handicap and people would favor Ravens to win.
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Quote Originally Posted by michaelino985:
Saints will won SU....Vegas wont even give the Ravens -3 in Baltimore,in the cold weather???? bc they doubt the Ravens win......If Vegas was not worried about the Saints winning str8 up the line would be at Balt -3.....They make it under -3 because they are begging for Ravens money.....re-think this one again.....
No - they are making you think Saints are a chance. I let the Bookies do all the work for me in prime time type games. They analyse these games in depth and have already decided Ravens will win.
They want the action on New Orleans. They don't want money on Baltimore especially if they assess it as Ravens -3.
It ain't happening. There was already public bias from Ravens game vs a very good Houston team that Ravens were tired etc etc etc. Alot of people saw that.
All I ask is what if Ravens won by 21 and not by a pick 6 in OT?
I'm sure then the Ravens would be a -3 handicap and people would favor Ravens to win.
Go back to the Philadelphia v Washington Monday Night Game. Everyone saw Washington lose big.
What did Washington do the next week as a +3 Dog?
Who do you think most of the money would have been against?
Sharp Bettors knew this.
All I'm saying is you need to think like a Bookie to beat a Bookie. It is no coincidence that they get games close to the lines or totals more times than not as they have inside sources on how playbooks are going to be run. They do it regular on NBA games expecially.
They want money on both sides obviously so they can pay one winning bettor from the losing bets of a another and still come out with a "commission".
In this situation, I think they prefer all the money on NO as Baltimore is likelier to win it for them
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Go back to the Philadelphia v Washington Monday Night Game. Everyone saw Washington lose big.
What did Washington do the next week as a +3 Dog?
Who do you think most of the money would have been against?
Sharp Bettors knew this.
All I'm saying is you need to think like a Bookie to beat a Bookie. It is no coincidence that they get games close to the lines or totals more times than not as they have inside sources on how playbooks are going to be run. They do it regular on NBA games expecially.
They want money on both sides obviously so they can pay one winning bettor from the losing bets of a another and still come out with a "commission".
In this situation, I think they prefer all the money on NO as Baltimore is likelier to win it for them
i was actually pissed that bal gave the lead away as i had Saints as a possible play before the Monday night game was over so it hurt me there (value wise) and scared me as i had bal in that game (thank you pick 6)....
i do agree with you if bal just continued to lay the wood against hou lots of ppl would be looking at this differently, problem is i cant change how i felt about this game before the Mon night game was over just because perception may have changed...
a lot depends on the weather in this one and i dont know it yet, if it really cold and more importantly windy i will probably lay off but if conditions are good i dont give a shit how fresh bal d is they are not a good d against the pass and Brees will carve them....
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i was actually pissed that bal gave the lead away as i had Saints as a possible play before the Monday night game was over so it hurt me there (value wise) and scared me as i had bal in that game (thank you pick 6)....
i do agree with you if bal just continued to lay the wood against hou lots of ppl would be looking at this differently, problem is i cant change how i felt about this game before the Mon night game was over just because perception may have changed...
a lot depends on the weather in this one and i dont know it yet, if it really cold and more importantly windy i will probably lay off but if conditions are good i dont give a shit how fresh bal d is they are not a good d against the pass and Brees will carve them....
When did the Saints D become good? They have allowed 89 pts to be scored on them in the past 4 games. Averaging 22 points aginst in the past 4 weeks is NOT good D.
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When did the Saints D become good? They have allowed 89 pts to be scored on them in the past 4 games. Averaging 22 points aginst in the past 4 weeks is NOT good D.
Well I'm not even betting on a winner here. UNDER 44 is my play.
NFL is too hard to judge and sure NO are a chance becoz they are a great team. Im just analysing based on Bookies have 100 years of stats in games exactly like this.
They didn't come up with why Baltimore is a favorite for no reason and they also know public money will be on the Saints and....lol...on the Road in one of the hardest arenas to play in where the crowd will be so loud Brees will need to be on his game else risk his usual Pick 6s
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Well I'm not even betting on a winner here. UNDER 44 is my play.
NFL is too hard to judge and sure NO are a chance becoz they are a great team. Im just analysing based on Bookies have 100 years of stats in games exactly like this.
They didn't come up with why Baltimore is a favorite for no reason and they also know public money will be on the Saints and....lol...on the Road in one of the hardest arenas to play in where the crowd will be so loud Brees will need to be on his game else risk his usual Pick 6s
!Keep it simple!! Have you not noticed that BAL is not a very good
passing defense team. The reason HOU made it a game is because Schaub
was able to consistently pass it downfield in the second half. Teams
know that as often as Bal blitzes they are vulnerable in the secondary.
The Over is my POD for that very reason!! Brees will have a field day!
0
!Keep it simple!! Have you not noticed that BAL is not a very good
passing defense team. The reason HOU made it a game is because Schaub
was able to consistently pass it downfield in the second half. Teams
know that as often as Bal blitzes they are vulnerable in the secondary.
The Over is my POD for that very reason!! Brees will have a field day!
Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
Ravens 23 Saints 20
I will be playing the Under Total
really liking the play !
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Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:
Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
You are not leaving yourself a lot of room for error when it comes to your under play. You are predicting a 23-20 game and yet basically calling the UNDER a lock when the total is 43.5/44
Secondly, you are calling the Saints D a good D when it has allowed 89 points a game in it's past 4 games. Not to mention that while the Ravens D is usually pretty good ( or used to be ) they can easily be drawn into an offensive shootout i.e like last weeks game against the Texans.
I would just love to know your logic behind calling the UNDER a great play in this game when you yourself are predicting 43 pts scored in a game where the betting total is 43.5/44. Surely you couldn't have found a game where your predicted score was more than 2 pts way from the bookies total and allowed yourself a stronger play?
0
You are not leaving yourself a lot of room for error when it comes to your under play. You are predicting a 23-20 game and yet basically calling the UNDER a lock when the total is 43.5/44
Secondly, you are calling the Saints D a good D when it has allowed 89 points a game in it's past 4 games. Not to mention that while the Ravens D is usually pretty good ( or used to be ) they can easily be drawn into an offensive shootout i.e like last weeks game against the Texans.
I would just love to know your logic behind calling the UNDER a great play in this game when you yourself are predicting 43 pts scored in a game where the betting total is 43.5/44. Surely you couldn't have found a game where your predicted score was more than 2 pts way from the bookies total and allowed yourself a stronger play?
When you guys say the bookies are doing the work for you do you mean that the bookies want to have money riding on the game and entice the public to erroneously take one side over the other? Do the books want even money on both sides or do they want the public to load up on the wrong side and then take them for a ride?
0
When you guys say the bookies are doing the work for you do you mean that the bookies want to have money riding on the game and entice the public to erroneously take one side over the other? Do the books want even money on both sides or do they want the public to load up on the wrong side and then take them for a ride?
The running joke here in Vegas is that the books have to pick a fav so that the squares have a team to pick. The Sportsbook managers, a lot of them that come on LV radio almost everyday thrive on weekends in which the dogs cover or win straight up, that is their bread and butter!!
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The running joke here in Vegas is that the books have to pick a fav so that the squares have a team to pick. The Sportsbook managers, a lot of them that come on LV radio almost everyday thrive on weekends in which the dogs cover or win straight up, that is their bread and butter!!
When you guys say the bookies are doing the work for you do you mean that the bookies want to have money riding on the game and entice the public to erroneously take one side over the other? Do the books want even money on both sides or do they want the public to load up on the wrong side and then take them for a ride?
Yes - what I'm saying is they want the public to take a long trip down the hole.
They are saying NO is a huge chance to win and that they are +100 in a game that is away. They are using what the public saw in Houston to base this.
I am not saying NO can't win but there are more factors against NO winning than losing.
Don't people realise Ravens need to keep winning till Playoffs, they are 8 from past 9 at home, they will be using a run offense to keep Brees off the park especially with some injuries in the D line and also cash in on errors that NO could make via Brees.
NO has a great offense but it's not inside a Dome, it's on grass and there will be a noisy crowd that will be in NO faces all nite. The crowd is a HUGE factor as far as I'm concerned in NFL.
Brees and his receivers need to be on their Playbook from start.
This is as good as a Play Off game.
Mark my words - Ravens will be treating this as one.
I'm not a Ravens fan btw so objectively, i'm just trying to figure the underlying reasons here.
Already the Ravens ML has been shaved by 10 points. This is sharp players knowing more than Joe public
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Quote Originally Posted by defender1844:
When you guys say the bookies are doing the work for you do you mean that the bookies want to have money riding on the game and entice the public to erroneously take one side over the other? Do the books want even money on both sides or do they want the public to load up on the wrong side and then take them for a ride?
Yes - what I'm saying is they want the public to take a long trip down the hole.
They are saying NO is a huge chance to win and that they are +100 in a game that is away. They are using what the public saw in Houston to base this.
I am not saying NO can't win but there are more factors against NO winning than losing.
Don't people realise Ravens need to keep winning till Playoffs, they are 8 from past 9 at home, they will be using a run offense to keep Brees off the park especially with some injuries in the D line and also cash in on errors that NO could make via Brees.
NO has a great offense but it's not inside a Dome, it's on grass and there will be a noisy crowd that will be in NO faces all nite. The crowd is a HUGE factor as far as I'm concerned in NFL.
Brees and his receivers need to be on their Playbook from start.
This is as good as a Play Off game.
Mark my words - Ravens will be treating this as one.
I'm not a Ravens fan btw so objectively, i'm just trying to figure the underlying reasons here.
Already the Ravens ML has been shaved by 10 points. This is sharp players knowing more than Joe public
Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
Ravens 23 Saints 20
I will be playing the Under Total
Yessir.........Ravens win & cover & Falcons lose SU at 4pm
0
Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:
Kinda sick how 85% of public is favoring NO. A few points here are:
1. Baltimore tired? All because of a Nationally Televised Game where the
Defense looked tired - does that mean they are tired t?? Poday? Public
perception and bias leaking into the following week
2. Baltimore did lead Houston by 21 and like against Steelers, played to
defend the score and nearly paid again. Do they do it again?? I think
they will. Flacco is not the smartest QB and has a low IQ under
pressure. But the point is - they played well to that point and had they won by 21 - we would all be looking at this game different.
3. Drew Brees and his picks. Brees is the one reason why NO have not won
comfortably. Is he a liability in what is probably a close game?
The Bookies will have done alot of work on this
one and they are actually telling you based on their "work", Baltimore
are proper favorites and should win.
The sharp money should be on Baltimore. Not the Saints.
If you need action - look for the total to stay under 44. Both teams
have good D and the game will be decided by no more than 3-6 points. Baltimore to run the ball and New Orleans to do the same and take care of the ball since the Division will hinge on this game.
The Saints are not going to be blowing out Baltimore as most people want happening and celebrate how brilliant they are with their pick by half time.
I love to see it and my initial lean was NO but further thought on this game proved otherwise
Ravens 23 Saints 20
I will be playing the Under Total
Yessir.........Ravens win & cover & Falcons lose SU at 4pm
I have found the Saints to not be the high scoring team even when they are leading like last week against Rams.
One thing the Saints are doing in games is manage their injuries, ie prevention is better than cure and they are slowing the games up more.
I do see alot of 3 and outs here. I would love to say the scoreline will be like what it will be between Steelers and Jets, ie 13-10 etc but I think there will be plays to get some TDs. But 4 TDs for the Game at the most and that does favor Ravens to win.
They have scored 30 or more in 5 straight games.
Isn't that considered high scoring?
0
Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:
I have found the Saints to not be the high scoring team even when they are leading like last week against Rams.
One thing the Saints are doing in games is manage their injuries, ie prevention is better than cure and they are slowing the games up more.
I do see alot of 3 and outs here. I would love to say the scoreline will be like what it will be between Steelers and Jets, ie 13-10 etc but I think there will be plays to get some TDs. But 4 TDs for the Game at the most and that does favor Ravens to win.
!Keep it simple!! Have you not noticed that BAL is not a very good passing defense team. The reason HOU made it a game is because Schaub was able to consistently pass it downfield in the second half. Teams know that as often as Bal blitzes they are vulnerable in the secondary. The Over is my POD for that very reason!! Brees will have a field day!
Agree, provided Saints play the full game they should Pound the Ravens.
0
Quote Originally Posted by drifter44:
!Keep it simple!! Have you not noticed that BAL is not a very good passing defense team. The reason HOU made it a game is because Schaub was able to consistently pass it downfield in the second half. Teams know that as often as Bal blitzes they are vulnerable in the secondary. The Over is my POD for that very reason!! Brees will have a field day!
Agree, provided Saints play the full game they should Pound the Ravens.
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