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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl XLIV Top 10 Props
tooez
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#1
Posted: 1/28/2010 3:11:26 PM

I've been waiting all week to start disecting props and find a few winners. Went 5-1 during the Vikes/Saints and Colts/Jets games, should be able to profit given the amount of time we get before the big game. I'm throwing out my top 10 in no particular order and will narrow it down as the week goes on.

1. Will the game ever be tied after 0-0? Yes +110

2. Saints total 3rd down Conversions: Over 5.5 -125

3. Saints total rushing yards: Over 100.5 -115 (they will try to control the clock by rushing a lot).

4. Colts total rushing yards: Under 99.5 -115 (they only average 80 rushing ypg this season).

5. Will there be a score in the first 5 1/2 minutes? Yes +105

6. Reggie Bush rushing attempts: Over 4.5 -115 (He had attempts of 5 and 7 in the two playoff games).

7. Pierre Thomas rushing attempts: Over 11.5 -115 (13 and 14 previous two).

8. Joseph Addai longest rush: Over 12.5 yards -115 (Just look at the stats on this one).

9. Reggie Wayne total receiving yards: Over 74.5 -115 (He's due for a big game).

10. Pierre Garcon total receptions: Over 4.5 -115 (Hit this the last two games at 3.5, gotta ride it one more time).

 

All comments are appreciated!! Let's cash some tickets!!

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#2
Posted: 1/28/2010 3:49:32 PM
1. Yes
2. Over
3. under
4.under
5.yes
6.yes
7.under
8.under-
9.over
10.over

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#3
Posted: 1/28/2010 5:25:28 PM

ok, i'll play along... agree on 6, disagree on 4...

  1. Yes
  2. Under
  3. Under
  4. Over
  5. Yes
  6. Over
  7. Under
  8. Over
  9. Over
  10. Over
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tooez
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#4
Posted: 1/28/2010 5:36:58 PM

Ice, Gold Rush

Thanks for the input fellas, I'm confident we'll find the best plays out there.

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#5
Posted: 1/28/2010 6:39:46 PM

i'm sure i didn't put nearly as much thought into it as you did...

 

however, i will say i think a couple of those are gimmes... particularly #9 and #10...

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#6
Posted: 1/28/2010 8:18:42 PM

10 is a sucker bet if I have ever seen one.  I will be on the under in that one. 

Garcon under 4.5 for 2 units here.  Hopefully you donks bet the hell out of it and I can better value.

I'm 5-1 on playoff props and will DEFINITELY be on the under here

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#7
Posted: 1/28/2010 9:52:27 PM

Insight... Garcon is one of the best bets to be the MVP in this game... Saints secondary will have no choice but to double Reggie Wayne all day long... if they do not Wayne will have close to 200 yards receiving...

they will opt to let other WRs beat them... and when they do, they will unleash Garcon... who, even the best CB on the Saints, does not have a shot in hell of being able to cover...

over 4.5 is a gimme... he'll have at least 4 by halftime... AND, more importantly... there is no way you can lost both #9 and #10, unless both of them get injured...

taking the under on #9 is a very unwise betting decision... very unwise!

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#8
Posted: 1/28/2010 10:48:33 PM
Thanks for your "Insight Mr." Like I said I hit Garcon over 3.5 receptions in both colts playoff games so I will be playing it again during the super bowl. With all the attention on Wayne and Clark, Garcon and Collie get a lot of passes their way. Hopefully your not doing this just because Garcon had a big game and now Saints are all of a sudden going to focus on stopping him.
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#9
Posted: 1/28/2010 10:56:56 PM

I do not think they double Reggie. The status quo in the NFL is to watch the tape and then go against it. If they watch the playoff tape, they do not double Reggie.  They go single because they forget Reggie is one bad behind mf.

He blows em up and cashes the prop.  My two cents. I would bet one of these or the other, I do not like em both. It is either Garcon or Wayne, maybe not both.

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#10
Posted: 1/28/2010 10:58:02 PM

I'll play too

1. YES

2. Over

3. Over

4. Over

5. Yes

6. Over

7. Over

8 Over

9. Under < Greer should be matched up on him

10. Over

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#11
Posted: 1/28/2010 11:24:57 PM
Love the Reggie Bush rushing attempts over. BOL
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#12
Posted: 1/29/2010 3:07:53 AM
QUOTE

What are you talking about...who the fuck is Greer?  Unless it's revis, i'm not that worried

 

Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

I'll play too

1. YES

2. Over

3. Over

4. Over

5. Yes

6. Over

7. Over

8 Over

9. Under < Greer should be matched up on him

10. Over

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#13
Posted: 1/29/2010 3:15:50 AM

1. Will the game ever be tied after 0-0? Yes +110

like this

2. Saints total 3rd down Conversions: Over 5.5 -125

sounds good

3. Saints total rushing yards: Over 100.5 -115 (they will try to control the clock by rushing a lot).

like where your heads at

4. Colts total rushing yards: Under 99.5 -115 (they only average 80 rushing ypg this season).

dunno about this one- if they take the lead and run the clock your done...

5. Will there be a score in the first 5 1/2 minutes? Yes +105

iffy- but looks good- five and half minutes isn't a long time.

6. Reggie Bush rushing attempts: Over 4.5 -115 (He had attempts of 5 and 7 in the two playoff games).

tough to tell, he doesn't run the ball a lot

7. Pierre Thomas rushing attempts: Over 11.5 -115 (13 and 14 previous two).

better bet than bush

8. Joseph Addai longest rush: Over 12.5 yards -115 (Just look at the stats on this one).

like this one alot.  13  yard run is not hard to get in this game with the defenses so worried about the pass.

9. Reggie Wayne total receiving yards: Over 74.5 -115 (He's due for a big game).

agree

10. Pierre Garcon total receptions: Over 4.5 -115 (Hit this the last two games at 3.5, gotta ride it one more time).

definitley, his numbers were skewed last game and he will not have close to 11, but the colts throw the ball a ton- wayne isn't going to catch everything.  garcon should grab at least 5 or 6 receptions at a minimum

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tooez
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#14
Posted: 1/29/2010 4:42:58 PM

Crashdavis-  I want to narrow this list down so I just might take one of those away.

Bustin Piles- I like that you agree with most even though I don't know who Greer is?

Scooter-  I think both Thomas and Bush over rushing attempts look solid.

Michfan-  I guarantee I'm taking #4 off the list. However, I hate that everything else I got is Over's!

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#15
Posted: 1/29/2010 4:53:34 PM

love em all, except for 1 and 5

 

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#16
Posted: 1/29/2010 5:07:25 PM

Sorry just getting back to reading this thread

Jabari Greer very underrated CB and great free agent acquistion doesn't get the pub of other cornerbacks in the league. Played very well against some elite WR's this season including Fitzgerald, TO, and Calvin Johnson.

 

Article

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tooez
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#17
Posted: 1/29/2010 5:16:44 PM
Bustin Piles:  Thanks for the article I just read it. It seems nobody knows about him because he missed 8 games. If he really is 2nd best to Revis then I will definitely reconsider that Wayne prop.
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#18
Posted: 1/29/2010 6:09:47 PM
Which site is offering that Bush rushing attempts prop dude?


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#19
Posted: 1/29/2010 6:28:42 PM
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#20
Posted: 1/29/2010 7:43:33 PM

BP... i agree that Greer is underrated... but i don't think i agree that this is a game where he will really be able to showcase himself... Reggie Wayne is a bad matchup for any and every CB in the NFL...

if Greer doesn't get some help over the top, he will get burned on a long one...

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tooez
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#21
Posted: 1/29/2010 7:49:25 PM

JackedUp: I got all the lines from Sportsbooks.com

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#22
Posted: 1/29/2010 8:46:10 PM
Cool, the UK bookies have the line at over/under 8.5, i reckon i will try for a middle...
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#23
Posted: 1/29/2010 8:53:49 PM
How about this one:

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game?  No +150
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#24
Posted: 1/29/2010 9:14:20 PM
Sweet, $400 on over 4.5 and $400 on under 8.5

Fingers crossed, thanks for the info tooez!
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#25
Posted: 1/29/2010 9:20:07 PM

#1--NO

#10--OVER

EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN (#2-9)...pass, save that money and just put it all on INDY.  Surest bet of the day!! 

I know you like these things too much though!  GL Pal..

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