ILLZ-
Unless something has changed in terms of how you are evaluating the Jets, don't hedge. You're getting 40-1 now. If you bet NY in this game and then in the SB, you'd get no where even close to that. You should treat them as separate bets.
If you can't see this and you have to hedge, you'll need to come up with a line for the SB should the Jets make it and work backwards.
If the Jets make the SB, they will have won on the road THREE times in a row as dogs. If you think NO or Minny would lay 7 to a team that just did that, you're nuts IMO.
I think the line would be less then 7.
You're only guaranteeing yourself a profit in the short run. Over the long run, hedging bets like this cost you money.
It's EXACTLY the same thing as taking insurance in blackjack, when you have a blackjack. Insurance should be considered a separate bet and that bet should only be taken if know the number of the non-tens vs the number of tens left in the deck is less than 2 to 1.
The short-term thinker takes insurance instantly, because it "guarantees" him a profit... for that hand.
The long-term thinker, who doesn't take insurance, or who does it when he knows it's mathematically sound, has more money in his pocket at the end of the weekend/month/year, etc., and that's the ultimate goal.
Hutch is correct. Unless something has changed in terms of how you are evaluating the Jets, don't hedge.
The Ten Commandments of Gambling also say not to hdege:
You're only guaranteeing yourself a profit in the short run. Over the long run, hedging bets like this cost you money.
It's EXACTLY the same thing as taking insurance in blackjack, when you have a blackjack. Insurance should be considered a separate bet and that bet should only be taken if know the number of the non-tens vs the number of tens left in the deck is less than 2 to 1.
The short-term thinker takes insurance instantly, because it "guarantees" him a profit... for that hand.
The long-term thinker, who doesn't take insurance, or who does it when he knows it's mathematically sound, has more money in his pocket at the end of the weekend/month/year, etc., and that's the ultimate goal.
Hutch is correct. Unless something has changed in terms of how you are evaluating the Jets, don't hedge.
The Ten Commandments of Gambling also say not to hdege:
True. But, what if you made this bet with the sole intention of hedging it? Thinking the Jets could win 2 games and then you could guarantee yourself a profit?
I would say wait and take the Colts ml to win $40. Its a minimal hedge and if the Colts win you are even. If the Jets win, you still have $1400 to hedge with and should win a few hundred either way.
gl 
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