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Hello Everyone,
Hope you all had good weeks, the Top 3 went 2-1 last week to bring us to 14-4 over the last 6 weeks. Well here are the Top 3 for this week, as always any input is appreciated as I love discussing football.
Seattle @ Houston:
I'll start off and say that I backed the Seahawks over their recent 2-0 ATS performance, both divisional games against teams that aren't too high on my power rankings, Seattle is familiar with these foes and has more talent is perceived. Now is the time to go against the Seahawks, we're fortunate to have spread at less than a TD. Seattle exceeded expectations the past two weeks and aren't catching as many points on the road. I've made mention several times (especially when picking against Houston in week 1) that they are the most dangerous in December home games, over the last few seasons, the theme with this team is to not live up to the early hype, but play lights out in December when there mostly out of the playoff hunt. The Texans are on the flip side of Seattle they have went 0-2 ATS vs. 2 consecutive divisional opponents. There is much less pressure on them to win this game than the previous two and team has always played better when pressure is at a minimum.
Seattle has only one road win this season (at STL 2 weeks ago) in which they were my number one pick. I believe for a number of reasons that this result will be much more like their huge losses at Indy & Minn. The thing Houston has in common with Indy & Minn is that they have a good offense, this gives Seattle problems keeping up on the road. Also the Texans do have some great players on Defense and while they aren't great in the sack category, Seattle O line has been a problem in protection all year. On paper, Houston has the edge and when factoring in their home December record (when it doesn't really matter) and Seattle's abysimal road history and the fact that they don't have great protection or a great running game (two things that go along way for winning on the road) points to great value at -6 as I believe a truer number would be -9 or -10, but its -6 because Seattle has exceeded expectations against the Rams and Niners. This game should be the blowout the Texans are due for.
Pick: Hou -6
Hou 31
Sea 13
San Diego @ Dallas
Odds makers are saying that these teams are evenly matched which is indicative of the Dal -3 line. San Diego has the better QB and WR's in this dome game, which will make a difference, I believe it was a bit hard for SD to get up for last week's game @ Cleveland where they won but did not cover the spread. It's hard to imagine the Chargers not being focused for this contest and I think the indoor environment will lead to sharper execution than what we saw last week. Everyone knows by now, but I have to mention Dallas under Romo has been terrible ATS and SU for that matter in December games, on the flip side the Chargers have played there best ball around this time of year and have a stellar record in these kind of spots. Much like the Seattle game above, these two teams have given us a couple seasons + of these patterns to go off of. This isn't the only reason SD is the pick, though it can't be ignored.
Dallas has a good team but one thing I think they really lack is play-makers in the Passing game. Roy Williams hasn't came close to living up to expectations, and Miles Austin has had good games but I think its more out of necessity than anything else. Witten is a great player but this team is really missing the likes of a T. Owens kind of play-maker to pair up with Romo and the running game. On the other hand you have San Diego who have one of the biggest receiving corps in the NFL, they have size and skill and a QB in Rivers that's gonna place the ball where only his guys can get it more often than not. And if Defenses have to commit to much to the WR's they are really effective running underneath stuff with Tomlinson and Sproles. Not to mention the play of Sproles in return situations. Defensively either team could play a good game on any given day, but I expect both Offenses will have success and trust the Chargers to put up more points. To me, the wrong team is favored here. I suppose its because the possiblity of rebounding off the Giants loss, but as mentioned we've seen nothing on the field or from the past seasons under Phillips and Romo that indicate they should be laying points to a deep playoff threat.
Pick: SD +3
SD 24
Dal 20
Green Bay @ Chicago
A lot of psychological and situational handicapping this week, which I think always plays more of a part later in the season like we are vs. the start. Chicago has talent but for the several weeks I've felt like there problem is team chemistry and lack of good leadership from the players and coaches. I've noticed several times that it just doesn't seem like they have an identity or much of a drive to want to win a super bowl etc... I don't expect the Bears to be as fired up hosting a divisional rival as we might have seen in year's past. I also don't think there Defense is going to be good enough to slow down GB who after another big win, have to be feeling really confident heading into Chicago.
Green Bay's secondary has been great for awhile now, a lot of people don't realize that even last year during there disappointing season they had one of the top scoring defenses in the league, and I've always thought Rodgers to be one of the most talented QB's in the game, In the past he's always had so much pressure in his face and still put up pretty decent numbers, they way they've played in pass protection since the bye week and getting some guys back from injury is encouraging for this team. Also Ryan Grant is a good RB and has showed in the past that he is capable of a big game late in the year. GB is the better team here and I believe will also be the team that will have the better chemistry and will want this win more come Sunday. GB could win big here, if that's not the case and it's a close game in the 4th quarter, than I have to like GB's chance of being the team to pull it out even on the road here.
Lastly, the spread seems to indicate the reputation of Chicago being a good Home team in the cold winter. But weather won't effect GB who plays in the same weather regularly in Lambeau and the Bear's Defense isn't the lock down unit it once was and sorely miss the leadership and play off Urlacher had he not been on put on IR early in the season things could be different for this team.
Pick: GB -3
GB 24
Chi 16
Hope you all had good weeks, the Top 3 went 2-1 last week to bring us to 14-4 over the last 6 weeks. Well here are the Top 3 for this week, as always any input is appreciated as I love discussing football.
Seattle @ Houston:
I'll start off and say that I backed the Seahawks over their recent 2-0 ATS performance, both divisional games against teams that aren't too high on my power rankings, Seattle is familiar with these foes and has more talent is perceived. Now is the time to go against the Seahawks, we're fortunate to have spread at less than a TD. Seattle exceeded expectations the past two weeks and aren't catching as many points on the road. I've made mention several times (especially when picking against Houston in week 1) that they are the most dangerous in December home games, over the last few seasons, the theme with this team is to not live up to the early hype, but play lights out in December when there mostly out of the playoff hunt. The Texans are on the flip side of Seattle they have went 0-2 ATS vs. 2 consecutive divisional opponents. There is much less pressure on them to win this game than the previous two and team has always played better when pressure is at a minimum.
Seattle has only one road win this season (at STL 2 weeks ago) in which they were my number one pick. I believe for a number of reasons that this result will be much more like their huge losses at Indy & Minn. The thing Houston has in common with Indy & Minn is that they have a good offense, this gives Seattle problems keeping up on the road. Also the Texans do have some great players on Defense and while they aren't great in the sack category, Seattle O line has been a problem in protection all year. On paper, Houston has the edge and when factoring in their home December record (when it doesn't really matter) and Seattle's abysimal road history and the fact that they don't have great protection or a great running game (two things that go along way for winning on the road) points to great value at -6 as I believe a truer number would be -9 or -10, but its -6 because Seattle has exceeded expectations against the Rams and Niners. This game should be the blowout the Texans are due for.
Pick: Hou -6
Hou 31
Sea 13
San Diego @ Dallas
Odds makers are saying that these teams are evenly matched which is indicative of the Dal -3 line. San Diego has the better QB and WR's in this dome game, which will make a difference, I believe it was a bit hard for SD to get up for last week's game @ Cleveland where they won but did not cover the spread. It's hard to imagine the Chargers not being focused for this contest and I think the indoor environment will lead to sharper execution than what we saw last week. Everyone knows by now, but I have to mention Dallas under Romo has been terrible ATS and SU for that matter in December games, on the flip side the Chargers have played there best ball around this time of year and have a stellar record in these kind of spots. Much like the Seattle game above, these two teams have given us a couple seasons + of these patterns to go off of. This isn't the only reason SD is the pick, though it can't be ignored.
Dallas has a good team but one thing I think they really lack is play-makers in the Passing game. Roy Williams hasn't came close to living up to expectations, and Miles Austin has had good games but I think its more out of necessity than anything else. Witten is a great player but this team is really missing the likes of a T. Owens kind of play-maker to pair up with Romo and the running game. On the other hand you have San Diego who have one of the biggest receiving corps in the NFL, they have size and skill and a QB in Rivers that's gonna place the ball where only his guys can get it more often than not. And if Defenses have to commit to much to the WR's they are really effective running underneath stuff with Tomlinson and Sproles. Not to mention the play of Sproles in return situations. Defensively either team could play a good game on any given day, but I expect both Offenses will have success and trust the Chargers to put up more points. To me, the wrong team is favored here. I suppose its because the possiblity of rebounding off the Giants loss, but as mentioned we've seen nothing on the field or from the past seasons under Phillips and Romo that indicate they should be laying points to a deep playoff threat.
Pick: SD +3
SD 24
Dal 20
Green Bay @ Chicago
A lot of psychological and situational handicapping this week, which I think always plays more of a part later in the season like we are vs. the start. Chicago has talent but for the several weeks I've felt like there problem is team chemistry and lack of good leadership from the players and coaches. I've noticed several times that it just doesn't seem like they have an identity or much of a drive to want to win a super bowl etc... I don't expect the Bears to be as fired up hosting a divisional rival as we might have seen in year's past. I also don't think there Defense is going to be good enough to slow down GB who after another big win, have to be feeling really confident heading into Chicago.
Green Bay's secondary has been great for awhile now, a lot of people don't realize that even last year during there disappointing season they had one of the top scoring defenses in the league, and I've always thought Rodgers to be one of the most talented QB's in the game, In the past he's always had so much pressure in his face and still put up pretty decent numbers, they way they've played in pass protection since the bye week and getting some guys back from injury is encouraging for this team. Also Ryan Grant is a good RB and has showed in the past that he is capable of a big game late in the year. GB is the better team here and I believe will also be the team that will have the better chemistry and will want this win more come Sunday. GB could win big here, if that's not the case and it's a close game in the 4th quarter, than I have to like GB's chance of being the team to pull it out even on the road here.
Lastly, the spread seems to indicate the reputation of Chicago being a good Home team in the cold winter. But weather won't effect GB who plays in the same weather regularly in Lambeau and the Bear's Defense isn't the lock down unit it once was and sorely miss the leadership and play off Urlacher had he not been on put on IR early in the season things could be different for this team.
Pick: GB -3
GB 24
Chi 16
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