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Trends & Things NFL week 9 2009-2010

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Posted: #1
Afer the Bye week trend :
 
Favorites coming off a bye are 42-17 ATS ( 71.2 % ) since the start of the 2006-2007 NFL season
 
2009-2010 NFL season >>
 
week 5 :  ( 2-1 ATS  )
 
Houston @ Arizona - 5.5  ...won SU & ATS
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5  ...  won SU & ATS
Washington @ Carolina - 5  ... won SU & lost ATS
 
 
Week 6 :   ( 2-1 ATS )
 
Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5   won SU/ATS
NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5   won SU/ATS
Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF )   Lost SU/ATS
 
Week 7 : ( 2-0 ATS )
 
Atlanta @ Dallas - 4  ...won SU & ATS
Indianapolis - 13.5 @ St Louis ... won SU & ATS
 
Week 8 : ( 2-1 ATS )
 
Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5  Won SU & ATS
St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5  Lost SU & ATS
Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3  Won SU & ATS
 
YTD Favored teams off a bye  : 8-3 ATS ( 72.7 % ) ( 9-2 SU )
 
 
Upcoming games :
 
Highlighted teams are coming off a bye >>>
 
Week 9 :
 
Miami @ New England - 10.5   ???
Pittsburgh -3  @ Denver            ???
 
Notes :
Teams coming out of a bye ( as long as they are favored ) continue to be solid winners !
 Favorites coming off a bye are 44-17 ATS ( 72.1 % ) since the start of the 2006-2007 season & 56-21 ATS ( 72.7 % ) since the start of the 2005-2006 season
Road Favorites  went a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS last year coming out of a bye , and 1-0 ATS thus this year ( Indi week 7 )
So, RF are on a 7-0 ATS run since the start of last year's NFL season .
Pittsburgh will put that streak on the line against Denver on MNF to try to make it 8-0
There will only be two more weeks after this , where teams will be playing coming out of a bye :
Lines are yet to be determined . Highlighted are the teams coming out of a bye .
 
Week 10 :
 
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Baltimore @ Cleveland ( MNF )
Detroit @ Minnesota
Jac @ NY Jets
KC @ Oakland
New Orleans @ St Louis
 
Week 11 :
 
Tennessee @ Houston ( MNF )
Atlanta @ NY Giants
 
 
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Posted: #2
NFC vs AFC
 
Week 8 Results :
 
San Francisco @ Indianapolis ...  AFC won SU & NFC won ATS
Cleveland @ Chicago ...NFC wins SU &  ATS
 
The YTD numbers follow :
33 interconference games played >>>
 
NFC leads AFC 17-15-1 ATS
AFC leads NFC 17-16-0 SU
 
When NFC is favored :
            NFC leads 12-8 ATS ( 60 % )
When AFC is favored :
            AFC leads 7-5-1 ATS
 
Week 9 matchups :

San Diego @ New York Giants -4.5/5  ???
Tennessee @ San Francisco -4/4.5    ???

Week 10 matchups :

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Denver @ Washington
Philadelphia @ San Diego

Notes: After a strong week 7 for the AFC , the NFC bounces back by taking both games ATS . This week , both NFC teams are playing at home and are favored , the NFC has covered 12 of the 20 games in which they have been favored so far this year .

NFC vs  AFC  35 - 29 ATS  ( 54.69 % ) in 2008-2009
AFC was favored in 35 of these games going 
15 - 20 ATS in 2008-2009
NFC was favored in 29 of those games going 
15 - 14  ATS in 2008-20
 
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Posted: #3
MNF OVER TREND :
MNF Over trend >>>
 
The Overs are now 20-4-1 ( 83.3 % ) since the start of the 2008-2009 season on Monday night football
( 8-1 Over YTD )
 
Week 1 
 Buffalo @ New England ( 47.5 ) NE wins 25-24 OVER
 San Diego @ Oakland ( 42.5 ) SD wins 24-20 OVER
Week 2 : Indianapolis @ miami ( 41 ) Indi wins 27-23 OVER
Week 3 : Carolina @ Dallas ( 48 ) Dallas wins 21-7  UNDER
Week 4 : Green Bay @ Minnesota ( 46 ) Minn wins 30-23 OVER
Week 5 : NY Jets @ Miami ( 36 ) Miami 31-27 OVER
Week 6 : Denver @ San Diego ( 44.5 ) Denver 34-23 OVER
Week 7 : Philadelphia @ Washington ( 38 ) Phil won 27-17 OVER
Week 8 : Atlanta @ New Orleans ( 56 ) NO 35-27 OVER
Week 9 : Pittsburgh @ Denver ( 39.5 )
Week 10 : Baltimore @ Cleveland
Week 11 : Tennessee @ Houston
Week 12 : New England @ New Orleans
Week 13 : Baltimore @ Green Bay
Week 14 : Arizona @ San Francisco
Week 15 : New York Giants @ Washington
Week 16 : Minnesota @ Chicago
 
MNF in 2008-2009 :
OVERS  : 12-3-2
 
Week 1 : Over / Over
Week 2 : Over
Week 3 : Over
Week 4 : Over
Week 5 : Over
Week 6 : Over
Week 7 : Push
Week 8 : Over
Week 9 : Under
Week 10 : Over
Week 11 : Over
Week 12 : Over
Week 13 : Under
Week 14 : Over
Week 15 : Push  
Week 16 : Under
 
Next MNF game :
 
Pittsburgh @ Denver  
Total 39.5  
 
Notes : This is a remarkable run for the Overs on MNF , with
2009-2010 ( Overs 8-1 )  starting just about the same way that 2008-2009 began .
 If there is an omen for the under bettors on this game it might be that the first game to go under last year when Overs were on a 8-0-1 run took place in week 9 when Pittsburgh visited Washington ( 37.5 )  Final score : Pittsburgh 23-6
 
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Favorites vs Underdogs :
 
2009-2010
 
week 1 : Favs : 8-7-1
week 2 : Favs : 7-9-0
week 3 : Favs : 11-5-0
week 4 : Favs : 10-4-0
week 5 : Favs : 6-8-0
week 6 : Favs :  5-9-0
week 7 : Favs : 9-3-1
week 8 :  Favs :  5-8-0
YTD : Favs 61-53-1 ( 53.5 % )
 
Last year at this time :
Favorites vs Underdogs 2008-2009
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 : Favs 7-7 ATS
Last year through week 8 in the NFL Favs were
61-53-2  ( 53.5 %  )
 
Notes :
We're exactly where we were last year at this time with favorites leading , but the dogs catching up ...
The gap is not large , but one significant difference between this year and last year has to do with larger spreads . Last year DD dogs were $ , while that is not the case this year at this point in time .
 
This is how last year went from week 9 on : ( 65-72- 3 ) ( 47.4 % )
 
Week 9 :  Favs : 5 - 9 ATS
Week 10 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS
Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS
Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS
Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS
Week 15 : Favs : 5 - 10 - 1 ATS
Week 16 : Favs : 5 - 11 ATS
Week 17 : Favs : 10 - 6 ATS
 
Favorites would finish the year by the slimmest of margins :
Favs finish 126 - 125 - 5 ( 50.2 % )  ATS in 2008-2009
 
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Overs vs Unders
 
YTD 2009-2010 Totals
 
Week 1 : Overs : 8-8-0 
Week 2 : Overs : 9-7-0
Week 3 : Overs : 7-9-0
Week 4 : Overs : 8-5-1  
Week 5 : Overs : 7-7-0
Week 6 : Overs : 7-7-0
Week 7 : Overs : 7-5-1
Week 8 : Overs : 6-7-0
 
YTD:
Overs lead 59-55-1 ( 51.7 % )
 
Last year at this time :
 
Overs vs Unders  2008-2009
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8 - 0  ( one game postponed )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5 - 0
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs   8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs   4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs   7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs  6 - 7 - 1
Last year through week 8 in the NFL Overs were 60-52-3
( 53.6 % )
 
How last year went from week 9 on : Overs : 64-69-7
 
Week 9 : Overs   5 - 7 - 2
Week 10 : Overs  9 - 5 - 0
Week 11 : Overs 5 - 10 - 1
Week 12 : Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 13 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 14  : Overs  4 - 11 - 1
Week 15 : Overs  6 - 8 - 2
Week 16 : Overs 8 - 7 - 1
Week 17 : Overs 9 - 7 - 0
 
Notes :
This year's totals are pretty steady through 8 weeks , but these last 2 years have had both the Favorites and Overs gettting off the gate strong early , forcing the ( oddsmakers ) Dogs and Unders to play catch up ...
Overs would hang on in the end :
2008-2009 season >>>
Overs prevail  124 - 121 - 11 ( 50.6 %  )
 
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Home Underdogs : 2009-2010
 
 
Week 1 : HD : 1-3 ATS
Week 2 : HD : 2-3 ATS
Week 3 : HD : 2-5 ATS
Week 4 : HD : 3-1 ATS
Week 5 : HD : 4-2 ATS
Week 6 : HD : 1-1 ATS  
Week 7 : HD :  1-7 ATS
Week 8 : HD : 1-1 ATS 
 
YTD : HD : 15-23-0 ATS ( 39.5 % )
 
HD ( <= 3 ) 7-7 ATS
HD  ( between 3.5 & 9.5 )  5-12 ATS ( 29.4 % )
HD (  >= 10 )   3-4 ATS
 
Notes :
Week 7/8 the only Home dogs that covered going with covers database were 1 point home underdogs that may not have been underdogs at all depending on when and where wagers were placed . Outside of these 1 point " dogs " , HD got smoked going 0-8 ATS and getting blownout in just about every game .
 
Home field advantage isn't what it used to be .
That is why you see people like Jeff Sagarin adjust the home field advantage from a 3 + down to a 1 + this year
 
****************
Home Underdogs : 2008-2009
 
Home underdogs went 32-46-2 ( 41 % )
 
*************
Home Underdogs : 2007-2008
 
Home underdogs went 43-45-1 ATS ( 48.9 % )
 
**************
Since the start of the 2007-2008 NFL season
Home Underdogs are 90-114-3 ATS ( 44.1 % ) !!!
 
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Large Spreads :
 
 2009-2010
 
Spreads of 9 or 9.5 
 
YTD : 8-6-0
week 1 : 0-0-0
week 2 : 0-1-0
week 3 : 1-0-0
week 4 : 4-1-0
week 5 : 0-1-0
week 6 : 1-2-0
week 7 : 2-1-0
week 8 :
 
Spreads of >= 10 < 14
 
YTD : 7-6-0
week 1 : 1-2-0
week 2 : 1-1-0
week 3 : 1-0-0
week 4 : 1-0-0
week 5 : 1-1-0
week 6 : 0-0-0
week 7 : 0-0-0
week 8 : 2-2-0
 
 
Spreads of  >= 14
 
YTD : 6-3-0
week 1 : 1-0-0
week 2 : 0-0-0
week 3 : 0-0-0
week 4 : 0-0-0
week 5 : 2-0-0
week 6 : 1-2-0
week 7 : 2-0-0
week 8 : 0-1-0
 
Estimated lines for week 9 :
 
9 or 9.5 >>>   Wash @ Atl - 9 , Hou @ Indi - 9 , GB @ TB - 9
10 to 13.5 >>> Det @ Sea - 10 , Miami @ NE - 10.5 ,
Caro @ NO - 13.5
14 or over >>>
 
Overall Doudle digit favorites are 13-9 ATS YTD
 
This is in sharp contrast to last year where DD Favorites went
11-21 ATS overall ...
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2008-2009 NFL High spreads >>>
 
 
Group 1 ( Favorites of 9 & 9.5 points )
 
week 1 : 1-1 ATS
week 2 : 1-0 ATS
week 3 : 2-0 ATS
week 4 : 2-1 ATS
week 5 : 1-0 ATS
week 6 : 1-1 ATS
week 7 : 2-1 ATS
week 8 : 3-1 ATS
week 9 : 1-1 ATS
week 10   1-2 ATS
week 11 : 0 2 ATS
week 12 : 2-1 ATS
week 13 : 0-0  ATS
Week 14 : 1-1 ATS
Week 15 : 0-1 ATS
Week 16 : 1-0 ATS
Week 17 : 0-0 ATS
 
 Favorites of 9 or 9.5 went 19-13 ATS ( 59.4 % )
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Group 2  ( Favorites of >=10<14 )
 
week 1 : 0-1 ATS
week 2 : 0-0 ATS
week 3 : 0-3 ATS
week 4 : 0-1 ATS
week 5 : 0-0 ATS
week 6 : 0-2 ATS
week 7 : 1-2 ATS
week 8 : 0-0 ATS
week 9 : 0-1 ATS
week 10 : 1-0 ATS
week 11 : 0-1 ATS
week 12 : 1-0 ATS
week 13 : 2-0 ATS
week 14 : 1-1 ATS
week 15 : 0-0 ATS
week 16 :  0-0 ATS
week 17 :  2-2 ATS
 
Favorites between 10 & 13.5  went  8-14 ATS ( 36.4 % ) 
**********************
 
Group 3  ( Favorites of 14 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0-1 
week 2 : 0-0
week 3 : 0-0
week 4 : 0-0
week 5 : 0-1 
week 6 : 0-0
week 7 :0-0
week 8 : 0-1 
week 9 : 0-0
week 10 : 0-1 
week 11 : 0-1 
week 12 : 0-0
week 13 : 0-0
week 14 : 2-0
week 15 : 1-1
week 16 : 0-0
week 17 : 0-1
 
Favorites of  >= 14 finished  3 - 7 ATS  ( 30 % )  
 
Notes :
Double digit favorites went 11-21 ATS in 2008-2009
Through week 8 last year there were a total of 13 DD Favorites .
These DD favorites were 1-12 ATS .
 
So far this year , there have been 9 more DD favorites for a toal of 22 .
These are 13-9 ATS
 
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Posted: #9

Primetime game results :
2009-2010

Week 1 :
Thu :   Dog/Under

SNF : Fav/Under
MNF : Dog/Over
           Dog/Over

Week 2 :
SNF:  Dog/Over
MNF : Fav/Over

Week 3 :
SNF : Dog/Under
MNF: Fav/Under

Week 4 :
SNF : Fav/Over
MNF : Fav/Over

Week 5 :
SNF : Fav/Under
MNF : Dog/Over

Week 6 :
SNF : Fav/Under
MNF : Dog/Over

Week 7 :
SNF : Dog/Under
MNF : Fav/Over

Week 8 :
MNF : Dog/Over

Altogether Favorites are 8-9 & Overs are 10-7

THU : Favs are 0-1 & Overs are 0-1  
SNF : Favs are 4-4 & Overs are 2-5
MNF : Favs are 4-5 & Overs are 8-1

*****************
2008-2009 primetime game results >>>

 
All games played on Thu , Sat , Sun night , or Mon :
 
Favorites go  24 - 20 - 1 ( 54.5 % )
Overs go       27 - 15 - 3 ( 64.3 % )
 
Notes :
Overs continue to hit at a high percentage on primetime games going 27-15-3 in 2008-2009 and fueled by the MNF over trend 10-7 so far this year
Since the start of the 2008-2009 season Overs have gone
37- 22 - 3 ( 62.7 % ) in primetimegames ...
 
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Primetime game results >>
 
Results 2008-2009
 
Thursdays : Favs 7-2-1
Thursdays : Overs 7-2-1
------------
Saturdays : Dogs 1-0-0
Saturdays : Overs 1-0-0
 
***********
Sunday night games :
 
Dogs : 9-8-0
Unders : 10-7-0
------------
MNF:   Favs 9-8-0
MNF : Overs 12-3-2
 
Finally , all primetime games combined ( 2008-2009):
 
Favorites :  24 - 20 - 1
Overs :      27 - 15 - 3
 
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Results 2007-2008
 
Thursdays : Favs 7-1
Thursdays : Overs 5-3
***********
Saturdays : Dogs : 3-0
Saturdays : Unders 2-1
***********
Sundays : Favs : 8-8
Sundays : Overs 11-5
***********
Mondays : Favs 8-8
Mondays : Overs : 6-10 
 
 
Finally. all primetime games combined ( 2007-2008 ) :
 
Favorites :  23-20
Overs :   23-20
 
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Results 2006-2007
 
Thursdays : Favs 6-2
Thursdays : Overs 2-5-1
**********
Saturdays : Favs 3-0
Saturdays : Overs 2-1
*********
Sundays : Favs 6-9
Sundays : Overs 7-7-1
*********
Mondays : Favs : 9-8-1
Mondays : Overs 5-13
 
Favorites : 24-19-1 ( 55.8 % )
Overs :   16-26-2 (  38.1 %  )
 
Notes : ( Primetime games )
Favorites outgained the Dogs in 2008, 2007, 2006
while the Overs outgained the Unders in in 2007 & 2008 .
It was in 2006 when the Unders won out over the Overs going
 26-16-2 , fueled by the MNF games where Unders hit in 13 of the 18 chances .
 Compare that to recent history !
 
 
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Notes :
 
Favorites in primetime games went
71-59-2 ATS ( 54.6 % ) during last 3 full regular seasons
( 2006-2008 )
This fairly high percentage has been fueled in good part by the Turkey day games going 9-0 ATS in this span .
 
Overs lead the way during this span ( last 3 seasons ) by going
 66-61-5 ( 52 % )
propelled by the 2008-2009 season where 80 % of the games went over the total on Monday night games !
 
Thursday games have been kind to the backer of the favored team as an amazing 80 % of the games played that day have been won and covered by the favorites ...
2006-2007 ....2007-2008...2008-2009 seasons combined :
Favorites are on a 20-5-1 ATS run !
 
For those that argue ( generally speaking ) that betting on the favorites and the overs , particularly when it is the only game showing is a sucker's bet ,  have some recent monster trends against them !
 
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Posted: #12

Trend Watch >>

Teams playing B2B road games

 

Last 3 full seasons ( 2006-2008 ) teams that played B2B road games and lost first SU went 65-38 ATS

( 63.1 % ) on their second road game .

 

That percentage is a good estimate as I checked all of last year's teams that played B2B road games and  the teams that lost the first road game SU were 26-11 ATS the following road game .

 I added these numbers to the ones posted on the article >>>

2006 : 19-10 ATS

2007 : 20-17 ATS

 

That's how i arrived at 65-38 ATS ( 63.1 % )

 

When I first started tracking this TY , I saw that the teams that had lost the first road game were really struggling to cover the spread in the second .

 

So far this year, teams in this situation have gone

2-8 ATS

The good news would be that if the article is correct in regards to the even longer term numbers , then jumping in right now would seem timely , having missed the bad start .

I will track these and put the first team to the test .

I first brought this up in week 7's thread.
Up to that point , these teams were 3-8 ATS either indicating a trend reversal or a very slow start to the longer term trend either way making it interesting to track the remaining of the year . Chicago was next in week 7 coming off at Atlanta and follwoed that up with a stinker @ Cincinnati making the trend 3-9 ATS YTD .

 

Week 8 >>

Minnesota Vikings lost SU @ Pittsburgh then won ATS @ Green Bay

SF lost SU @ Houston then won ATS  @ Indianapolis

After week 8 results , we're trending back up ...

Now 5-9 ATS YTD

Here is the breakdown thus far :

Atlanta Lost SU @ NE then won ATS @ SF
Carolina lost SU @ Atlanta then lost ATS @ Dallas
Chicago lost SU @ Atlanta then lost ATS @ Cincinnati
Cleveland lost SU @ Denver then lost ATS @ Baltimore

Dallas lost SU @ Denver then lost ATS @ Kansas City

Houston lost SU @ Arizona then won ATS @ Cincinnati
NYJ lost SU @ NO then lost ATS @ Miami
Oak lost SU @ Houston then lost ATS @ NYG
Phil lost SU Oakland then won ATS @ Wash
PITT  lost SU @ Chicago then lost ATS @ Cin

TB lost SU Wash then lost ATS @ Phil

Tenn lost SU @ NY Jets then lost ATS @ Jacksonville

Minn lost SU @ Pitt then won ATS @ Green Bay

SF lost SU @ Houston then won ATS @ Indianapolis

Week 9 :

No teams qualify

Someone please post possible qualifiers for week 10 .

 I don't believe there are any on week 9 .

 

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Posted: #13

                WEEK 9 NFL Trend Report

 

Teams off their byes : Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

 

Teams coming out of the bye week that are favored :

New England , Pittsburgh

 

Bye Week Teams: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, Oakland,

St. Louis

 

 


 

 
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2009 NFL Week 9 – NFL Week 9 Point Spread Odds & Over/Under Totals:

403 Kansas City Chiefs +6.5 Over 42

404 Jacksonville Jaguars –6.5 Under 42

405 Baltimore Ravens –3 Over 43.5

406 Cincinnati Bengals +3 Under 43.5

407 Houston Texans +9 Over 48

408 Indianapolis Colts –9 Under 48

411 Green Bay Packers –10 Over 44

412 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 Under 44

413 Arizona Cardinals +3 Over 44.5

414 Chicago Bears –3 Under 44.5

415 Miami Dolphins +10.5 Over 47

416 New England Patriots –10.5 Under 47

419 Detroit Lions +10 Over 43

420 Seattle Seahawks –10 Under 43

421 Tennessee Titans +5.5 Over 40.5

422 San Francisco 49ers –5.5 Under 40.5

423 San Diego Chargers +3.5 Over 47.5

424 New York Giants –3.5 Under 47.5

425 Dallas Cowboys +3 Over 47.5

426 Philadelphia –3 Under 47.5

429 Pittsburgh Steelers –3 Over 39

430 Denver Broncos +3 Under 39

 Matchups to follow >>>


 

 
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 Baltimore @ Cincinnati + 3 / 43.5
Cincinnati is coming off a bye
HOME TEAMS boasts a 9-2-1 SU & 10-2 ATS record in CINCINNATI's L10 post-bye week games.

Ravens 10-2 ATS as favorites

Bengals 6-0 ATS as underdogs

Kansas City @ Jacksonville – 6.5 / 42
Kansas  City is coming off  a bye

KANSAS CITY: 18-6 ATS Away off loss by 10+ points

Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as favorites

Washington @ Atlanta – 10/ 41

Atlanta getting about 91 % of bets with limited action ( tue )
Washington coming off a bye

Redskins are 10-3 ATS after a bye
Redskins are 1-8-2 ATS following a SU loss

Falcons are 8-1 ATS following a SU loss

Under is 12-1 in Falcons week 9 games

 
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Miami @ New England – 10.5 / 47
New England coming off a bye
ROAD TEAMS are on a 9-1 ATS run in NEW ENGLAND's post-bye week games.
Dolphins are 13-3 ATS vs a team with a winning home record
Dolphins are 7-0 ATS as RD of 10.5 or more
Patriots are 0-8 ATS as HF of 10.5 or more
Road team is 4-0 ATS

Under is 10-1 in New England home games off a bye week

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay + 10 / 43.5  
GB getting 82 % of early bets
Tampa Bay is coming off a bye
Packers are 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss
Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS following an ATS loss
Buccanners are 1-12 ATS on grass

Green Bay is 14-6-1 ATS on the road

Arizona @ Chicago -3 / 44.5
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Bears are 1-5-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Cardinals are 6-0 ATS as an underdog

ARIZONA: 10-1 ATS if 50+ total points were scored last game

CHICAGO: 1-11 ATS after game with +4 TO margin or better



Houston @ Indianapolis – 9.5 / 48
Colts are 3-8 ATS as a HF
Texans are 5-1 ATS as a RD

Houston is 1-13 SU against Indianapolis
Texans are 0-7 ATS vs a team with a winning home record

Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings

HOUSTON: 10-2 Over in dome games

 
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Carolina @ New Orleans -14 / 52
Panthers are 2-6 ATS following an ATS win
Saints are 5-1 ATS following an ATS
Panthers are 3-7 ATS vs a team with a winning home record
Saints are 4-10-1 ATS vs a team with a losing road record
Road team is 15-2 ATS last 17 meetings
Panthers are 8-0 ATS last 8 meetings

Detroit @ Seattle -10 / 43.5

Seattle getting 79 % of early bets

Seahawks are 6-1 ATS as HF of 3.5 to 10

Detroit is 3-13 ATS as RD of 3.5 to 10

Detroit is 4-13 ATS on the road vs NFC West opponents since 92

Over is 17-5 in Seattle’s home games off a loss by 14 + points

 

San Diego @ New York Giants – 4.5 / 47
NYG getting 53 % of bets ( Tuesday ) Line has jumped from 3.5 to 4.5 

NFC vs AFC

Giants are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games  vs a team with a winning road record
Chargers are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record
Chargers are 0-5 ATS following a SU win

Giants are 0-3-1 ATS following a SU win

SD is 7-2 ATS on the road vs NFC East teams

San Diego is 11-3 ATS off B2B SU wins  

 

 
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Posted: #18

Tennessee @ SF  - 4 / 40.5

NFC vs AFC

SF getting 75 % of early bets on Monday ( RLM –with line drop )

SF getting 67 % of  bets on Tuesday  
49ers  are 3-1-1 ATS as HF
Titans are 15-7 ATS as an underdog
Titans are 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10

49ers are 5-12 ATS as a Favorite of 3.5 to 10

TENNESSEE: 7-0 Under Away off home win

Dallas @ Philadelphia -3 / 47.5
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as an underdog
Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a favorite
 DALLAS: 1-9 ATS Away off cover as DD favorite

PHILADELPHIA: 12-2 ATS off a division game
Under is 10-2-1 in Cowboys week 9 games


Pittsburgh @ Denver + 3 / 38.5

Pittsburgh is coming off a bye

Pittsburgh getting 77 % of early bets

UNDERDOGS are 8-3 ATS in PITTSBURGH's L11 post-bye week affairs.

Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS as a RF of 3 points or less since 92

Denver is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog
Broncos are 4-0 ATS as HD
Steelers are 0-5 ATS as RF

 
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Posted: #19

I made an attempt to insert some trends that applied to both teams in the matchup .
For instance : Cowbots are 5-0 ATS as an underdog , Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a favorite ....
There are trends that have no bearing on a team's recent play or that include recent play and go much farther back .
This would be the case for trends such as Washington is 10-3 ATS after a bye or a trend such as how a team has done ATS on a particular week ( in this case week 9 over the years. ) .
They are nevertheless there because they may be strong as  trends on their own merit .

How you interpret trends and how much you value them is naturally very subjective. 
I do believe it is important to keep the trends relatively simple .

 
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Posted: #20

The after the bye week trend is highlighted once again for its success dates back to at least the start of the 2005 NFL season .

Favored teams coming out of a bye :


New England - 10.5
Pittsburgh - 3

There are some rather strong trends in favor of both of the squads these 2 teams will be facing this week :


For instance :
ROAD TEAMS are on a 9-1 ATS run in NEW ENGLAND's post-bye week games.
Dolphins are 13-3 ATS vs a team with a winning home record
Dolphins are 7-0 ATS as RD of 10.5 or more
Patriots are 0-8 ATS as HF of 10.5 or more
Road team is 4-0 ATS
Yet, the after bye week trend supersedes any others .


New England is coming off a bye and favored .

Likewise Pittsburgh has trends going against it :
Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS as a RF of 3 points or less since 92
Denver is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog
Broncos are 4-0 ATS as HD
Steelers are 0-5 ATS as RF

Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and is favored .

 

 

 
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Posted: #21

Trend Blitz :

1 ) New England ( on bye trend )
2 ) Kansas City
3 ) Miami-New England Under
4 ) Green Bay
5 ) Washington-Atlanta Under
6 ) Arizona
7 ) Houston-Indi  OVER
8 ) Carolina
9 ) Seattle
10 ) Seattle-Detroit  OVER
11 ) Tennessee-SF Under
12 ) Philadelphia-Dallas  Under
13 ) Pittsburgh ( on bye trend )

Results of all 13 trend leans : ???
A similar exercise last week produced 15 selections going
9-6

 

 
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Posted: #22

That is all for now ...

Feel free to add any comments and point out any mistakes I may have made .  

I already spotted 2 mistakes .

Favorites coming off a bye are 42-17 ATS ( 71.2 % ) since the start of the 2006-2007 NFL season
I believe this should read 44-17 ATS ( 72.1 % ) as I state later .
I'll have to double check later .
Also teams playing B2B road games are 3-8 ATS after week 6 and 3-9 ATS after week 7 . These teams are now 5-9 ATS after week 8 .

 
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Posted: #23
Interesting as always
 
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Posted: #24

Why not HOU over INDY as a trend?  On a related note, what is the trend for teams missing all 4 starters in their secondary?

 
 
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Posted: #25

Mr. Bruschi54 

I hope you're enjoying retired life . You were a class act !


Now, on to the matchup between Houston vs  Indianapolis :

This series between these 2 divisional rivals has been marked by high scoring affairs that have gone decidedly Indianapolis way .
That is SU.

Indianapolis has won all but 1 of their games since Houston became the Texans back in 2002.
So, the Colts OWN Houston having gone 13-1 SU against the Texans .

The spreads have been set on the high side however .
Not once has Houston been favored in any of the 14 contests .

 Indianapolis is dead even ATS vs Houston having gone 7-7 ATS .

In fact the last 5 years a predictable pattern has emerged where when one teams covers first encounter of the year , the other one takes the second .
That took place in 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 .

This game marks the first encounter between them this year , and its taking place @ Indianapolis.
We already know , Indianapolis has won all 7 of the games SU @ home vs Houston , but how have they fared ATS against them ?

Indianapolis leads 4-3 ATS @ home vs Houston and  is 3-4 ATS when playing @ Houston .

Indianapolis when playing at home has had no problems scoring on Houston's defense scoring 33 points , 38 points , and 43 points last 3 years .
In the remaining 4 years , Indi at home has scored 31, 49, 30, & 19 back in 2002 .
This averages to Indi scoring 38 points last 3 years and 34.7 for all 7 years .
Now , keep in mind that the Over/Under is 49.5 for this game and the Over has hit on 8 straight ocassions .

As far as the spreads are concerned , Indianapolis is favored by 8.5 to 10 points this week .
These are the spreads that the Colts have covered in their 7 ATS wins : -3, -6.5, -11.5, -14.5, -8.5, -10, - 11  while they have not covered : -9, -6.5, -9, -17.5, -10.5, -8.5, -13.5 .
No real trend based on the spread .

Indianapolis has key injuries on the defensive front , but their offense is pretty healthy and is ranked # 1 in the passing category and ranked 4th overall .
Houston's defense is ranked 15th in the league , a decent improvement over the 22nd placement they ended up with last year ( they were 24th in prior 2 years )
Houston's offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the league . They are 8th this year . They were 28th 2 years ago.

To me , it's about Houston's defense vs a healthy Indianapoli's offense ,
because Houston just faced the 28th ranked offensive unit of the Bills, the 27th ranked offense of the 49ers , the 13th ranked offense of the Bengals , 18th ranked offense of Arizona , 32nd ranked offense of Oakland , 11th ranked offense of Jacksonville, 19th ranked offense of the Titans , and 16th ranked offense of the NY Jets .

We don't need to double check the offense of Indianapolis regardless of the opposition , they are always good .
Houston's defense has produced only 9 sacks this year, only 1 of 3 teams in the single digits .
Indianapolis  struggled last week against SF where Indi was 0-4 in red zone efficiency .
Peyton Manning was kept out of the endzone while amassing 349 yards passing .
Now, don't expect Houston to be the beneficiary of another off-day by Mr.Manning .
Not going to happen against their division rivals .
Houston's defense will be facing the best offense they have faced all year.
It is not far fetched given the stats and recent history between these teams to assume that the Colts can score 31 points on the Texans .

There have been some close games between these teams in recent past .
4 out of the last 6 games have been decided by 6 points or less with Houston actually taking one of those games outright @ Houston in 2006.
That being said , 2 out of the last 3 games played in Indi have also been blowouts .
You may take in consideration the injury depleted secondary of the Colts in handicapping this game , but from a trend point of view I can't here really say that Houston is a solid trend pick . Can you ?

In summary , the best trend that stood out stemming from this matchup was the Over .
Whether it goes over or not , it is undeniably the best trend here having already gone Over 8 straight times .


Advantage : Over

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