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| OVERALL: 12 - 8 (60%, includes teasers) ATS GM: 6-2 ATS 1H: 1-0 ATS 2H: 0-2 OV/UND: 2-2 TEASER: 3-2 Units : +2.67 units Here's to a rest of the season filled with the 2 most important things: Prosperity and Discipline.  WEEK 2 PLAYS ALREADY LOCKED IN: 1) PIT -3 +105 - 0.95 units to win 1 unit Pitt with the longer week off, so they have 3-4 more days to rest...Running game is a problem, but Ben showed he can carry the team and I expect him to do that again against a Chicago secondary that proved to be VERY suspect. Obviously, Urlacher out is a HUGE loss for that defense and I expect PITT to be able to run more. Polamalu is out, but the defense will probably be getting Timmons back for Week 2, a BIG part of what they want to do on defense this season. Not to mention Chicago played LATE sun night, didn't get home til early ass morning on Monday and is on the short week as well. 2) JAX -3 - 1.2 units to win 1 unit I really think ARI is in for a bit of a tailspin. Warner looked AWFUL yesterday, and since Boldin DID play, I don't believe he will be 100% this coming Sunday either. Jax played Indy VERY tough and even though they lost, have to feel good about having a chance to beat Indy at their home opener on their last drive. ARI travels west to east, which is ALWAYS a trend to follow...Combine all that with them traveling west to east, with Jax playing well on defense, + Jax home opener, and I like Jax to get the win here by more than 3. 3) TENN/HOU UNDER 40.5 - 1.1 units to win 1 unit Tennessee home opener and a very tough D...NOT an explosive offense, it's a very plodding along offense except for CJ...Houston offense struggled mightily in the opener...I don't know if I see them getting back on track AT THE TITANS.....Hou defense figures to play better than it did last week. I think it is likely that either A) ONE of these 2 defenses plays well enough, or B) ONE of these 2 offenses plays poorly enough, that they do not get to 41 total points. 60%+ is on the UNDER, so I locked it in now as I expect it to move to 40 or 39.5 soon. 4) CAR/ATL UNDER 43.5 - 1.1 units to win 1 unit Was going to wait to see if this moved to 44 to lock it in, but the Car spread went DOWN from 6.5 to 6 which I was NOT expecting, so I figured I'll just lock it in now. ATL offense clearly still needs work, I mean ATL scores only 19 points after Miami turned the ball over FOUR times inside its own 40...?! Philly got 14 of their points off of a punt return TD and a sack + fumble returned for a TD, which makes the Carolina defensive stats look worse than they were...If you think or agree that Car has a shot to cover 7pts or so (and I do), you also have to like the UNDER here as you are basically making a play based on the Car D rebounding, as clearly no one expects Delhomme to guide the team to 24+...it's a tough divisional game, etc. I think the defenses come to play more than people think. 5) SNF DAL/NYG OVER 43.5 - 1.1 units to win 1 unit I know, these teams will play each other tough and lots of defense and good defense at that...BUT the thing is, both of these defenses are aggressive as hell, could easily lead to a D TD, but I think because of how aggressive they are, you'll see the offenses try to be just as aggressive as a counter punch. I like both of these teams to test each other on offense, throwing deep, not being conservative etc. I expect the final to be somewhere like 27-24. Romo was in sync with his receivers in Week 1, and I expect nothing different in their home opener, especially with Aaron Ross missing again from the NYG secondary. Locking this in before it moves to 44, which I personally think that it will. STRONG LEANS: CAR +6: This line opened at 6.5 and I expected it to move to 7, but it went the other way a 1/2 point. Damn. I'll wait for it to come back to 6.5 and then maybe buy the 1/2 pt. I am confused by the line movement, I thought Vegas would LOVE this game. Public will be all over ATL. A team that got FOUR turnovers inside their opponents 40 yard line and only ended up with 19 points?? I like John Fox to rally these troops and play much better than expected, they can control the tempo with Stewart and DeAngelo better than Miami was able to do. Plus divisional game so Car knows they can't start 0-2 AND 0-1 within the division. I think 60% of the public is going to be on ATL, so I'll wait and see if I can get +7 without having to buy the point. At +6, I am laying off. If it moves back to 6.5, I'll buy the 1/2 pt to 7. I would love to add a dog to my card and Car is my #1 choice, so we'll see. |
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| FOR NOW CARD: PIT-3 JAX-3 TENN/HOU UNDER 40.5 CAR/ATL UNDER 43.5 DAL/NYG OVER 43.5 |
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