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Better late than never, hopefully if some-ones on the bubble to get some last minute future bets in before opening night's game maybe this info will help.
Basically, here's my formula I've been using to pick surprise teams over the years, and by the way, I've made some pretty nice calls over the years....................................including...........
99 Tampa Bay, lead the Rams late in the NCF Championship game before losing
2000 Ravens, won the SB
2001 Pats, won the SB
2001 49ers , 12-4, from 6-10 the previous year
2004 Pittsburg, 15-1 and lost in AFC championship, 6-10 the previous year
just a few of the calls I've made using this formula..........
I keep track of how many "stat battles" each team wins in the 2008 regular season, in other words, when a team wins a "stat battle" it out-played it's opponent on the field.
Example, turnover battle, each time a team wins this battle it dramatically increases it's chances to win the game.
So therefore the more often teams win the "stat battles" the more games it will win.
If a team wins 50% of it's "stat battles" in a given season, it will win about 50% of it's games. It'll go 8-8, or maybe 7-9 or 9-7, off by just 1 game.
24 of the 32 teams finished 2008 within 1 game of their "stat battle wins". Pretty amazing..............
What we're looking for are teams who've won more "stat battles" and produced fewer wins, in other words they out-played their opponents on the field, far better than their recod says.
Now we have a team that's better than it's record and this gives us VALUE.
Here are the 5 teams who've out-played their opponents by the largest amounts relative to their record.............................
1. Packers - won 6 games, should of won 8.5 ----- OFF BY 2.5
2. Jags ---won 5 games, should of won 7.5 ----- OFF BY 2.5
3. Chargers - won 8 games, should won 9.4 ----- OFF BY 1.4
4. Vikings --- won 10 games, should of won 11.4 -- OFF BY 1.4
5. Raiders -- won 5 games, should of won 6.2 ---- OFF BY 1.2
When teams get over a 2 game difference many times they have huge seasons the following year. Therefore........................
MY NUMBER 1 SURPRISE TEAM OF THE YEAR IS............
THE GREEN BAY PACKERS
Packers went 0-7 in games decided by 4 pts or fewer, this is a rarity, just 2 teams in the past 25 years did it. The following season those 2 teams improved by a combined 11 games.
other surprise teams --- Jags and Saints
For the record I'll list the 3 teams who produced better records than their "stat battle wins" said the should of. These teams are overvalued and not as good as last seasons record says, particularlly Indy.
Indy ---- won 12, should of won 10.1 ------ OFF BY 1.9
Titans ---won 13, should of won 11.7 ----- OFF BY 1.3
Bears ----won 9 , should of won 7.8 ---------OFF BY 1.2
If you followed my "Bounce Factor" (11-3, 78.6%) last season I'll be back again this season, first possible play will be week 4.........
Untill then, here's hoping you guys chew-up the books this season !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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