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huge SB prop line move....WHY?

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Posted: #1
who will kickoff first?
opening....
pitt -115
az-115
 
 
Now...
pitt-220
az+180
 
Someone has some inside info...
 
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Posted: #2
station casinos vegas....
 
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Posted: #3
Wow, they pulled the prop from my site.
 
Something is definitely up.
 
MVP
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Posted: #4
Lol inside info

How many threads are we going to possibly see on this? Scroll down to the MANY threads on this issue and you will find your answer.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #5
If it's true then should be good on Arizona side
 
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Posted: #6
I put a small wager on Zona to recieve at -130(Along with 90% of the people here)
 
But Now I can't find the prop anymore.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
LOL at "inside info." Fact is Steelers defer all but once this year and Arizona has elected to receive every time this year. -180 is a great price and would advise to bet all the way up to -550.
 
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Posted: #8
- 550
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:

- 550

Why not? Please explain to me how that is mathematically incorrect if the Cards are 100% at receiving opening kickoffs and the Steelers are 86% at deferring. Combining those numbers I get roughly 94% of the time the Steelers will defer OR the Cards will elect to receive. A ML of -550 represents around 85% so therefore -550 would be profitable by 9% or around a full $10. I am just saying -550 due to the Steelers' number mostly and a margin of error.

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by TheShack:

Why not? Please explain to me how that is mathematically incorrect if the Cards are 100% at receiving opening kickoffs and the Steelers are 86% at deferring. Combining those numbers I get roughly 94% of the time the Steelers will defer OR the Cards will elect to receive. A ML of -550 represents around 85% so therefore -550 would be profitable by 9% or around a full $10. I am just saying -550 due to the Steelers' number mostly and a margin of error.

Technically....it would be profitable to bet up to -1500 that the Cards would receive opening kickoff.....

 
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Posted: #11
The only factor that could really screw this up would be a wind issue.
 
If the Card win the toss they may choose to kick off so they can choose which goal to defend and play with the wind rather than against it.
 
That is if it is windy.
 
 
 
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Posted: #12
thanks for the info...didn't know all of this
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by TheShack:

Why not? Please explain to me how that is mathematically incorrect if the Cards are 100% at receiving opening kickoffs and the Steelers are 86% at deferring. Combining those numbers I get roughly 94% of the time the Steelers will defer OR the Cards will elect to receive. A ML of -550 represents around 85% so therefore -550 would be profitable by 9% or around a full $10. I am just saying -550 due to the Steelers' number mostly and a margin of error.



Shack I LOVE this bet but the Cards are not 100% at receiving the kick. In fact during the regular season they deferred close to 50% of the time. But with that being said, they took the ball both times in the playoffs, most notably taking it vs Philly and going right down the field for an early TD to set a tone.
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



Shack I LOVE this bet but the Cards are not 100% at receiving the kick. In fact during the regular season they deferred close to 50% of the time. But with that being said, they took the ball both times in the playoffs, most notably taking it vs Philly and going right down the field for an early TD to set a tone.

OK...I cannot be sure of this....I am just going by the numbers I had heard in terms of Pittsburgh deferring and Arizona choosing to receive 100% of the flips they win.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by TheShack:

OK...I cannot be sure of this....I am just going by the numbers I had heard in terms of Pittsburgh deferring and Arizona choosing to receive 100% of the flips they win.



Check espn play by play. Arizona chose to receive in 100% of their PLAYOFF GAMES (which is 2) but go to espn.com and see for yourself what they did in the regular season. Trust me I like the bet more then anyone, but just trying to prove a pt.
 
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Posted: #16
prop not even offered on BetJam...
 
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Posted: #17
careful with that steelers may very well defer BUT keeping warner off the field will probably be part of steelers game plan as much as possible gl
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

Lol inside info

How many threads are we going to possibly see on this? Scroll down to the MANY threads on this issue and you will find your answer.

15+ Already ...

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #19
This moved from -115 to -170 in first 48 hours of the prop being posted at Stations in Vegas.  It was 99% sharp money.  I was not able to find a site that showed what team won the toss and wether they kicked or received.  If the numbers that Shack quoted in this thread are accurate-it's still a good play.
 
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Posted: #20
SPORTSBETTING.com still offering Arizona to receive opening kickoff at -180
 
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Posted: #21
Oops... +180
 
 
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Posted: #22
This prop lost!! public gets fucked again!
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