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Trends & Things week 15 2008 NFL

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ,
 Down the stretch we go with only 3 weeks left in
this 2008-2009 NFL regular season .
I am having withdrawal symptoms already !
 
I am starting this week's thread by highlighling a strong trend ...
 
Featured matchup of the week
 
The Bufflalo Bills hangover continued on their 8th game following a loss to Miami when they promptly lost to the NY Jets @ home and as 5 point favorites ,
 
History does repeat itself as once again Miami handled Buffalo to set up the stage for a repeat performance .
The Bills must once again face the NY Jets and will be getting at least 7 points this time .
Buffalo is in a serious downward spiral having lost 6 out of their last 7 games starting with the loss to their division rivals, Dolphins .
 Buffalo has mustered a total of 6 points in 2 games since their 54 point explosion against the Chiefs .
NY Jets come back home after their inhospitable visit to the West Coast surging SF 49ers .
NY Jets will now attempt to end their 2 game losing streak that began at the hands of the unpredictable Denver Broncos .
 
Speaking of predictability , that is precisely what the Buffalo Bills have been following a game vs the Dolphins .
Predictably bad .
Predictably losers..
The numbers tell the story and it won't get much easier for the Bills on week 14 .
While I wisely set aside the trend selections after inexplicably reversing an absolute gem of a trend pointing to the Over on MNF in week 12, the situation in week 15 dictates to dust off the trend picks and put one on the line in this matchup .
Pretty simple really . As far as trends go ...
Win or lose it's a no-brainer .
 
First the stats >>>
 
2008 >>>
vs NYJ Lost 17-26 SU & ATS ( - 5 ) on 11/02/08
Next game : 12/14/08 @ NYJ ( after playing vs Miami 12/07/08 )
 
2007 >>
@ Cleveland Lost  0-8 SU & ATS ( + 4 )
vs New England  Lost  10-56 SU & ATS ( + 16 )
2006 >>
vs New York Jets  Lost  20-28 SU & ATS ( - 6 )
vs Tennessee Lost  29-30 SU & ATS ( - 5.5 )
2005 >>
vs New York Jets  Won 27-17  SU & ATS ( -3 )
vs New England  Lost 7-35  SU & ATS ( + 4.5 )
2004 >>
@ Baltimore  Lost 6-20 SU & ATS ( + 4.5 )
vs Cleveland Won 37-17 SU & ATS ( -3 )
2003 >>
Vs Philadelphia Lost 13-23  SU & ATS ( -3 )
@ New England Lost 0-31 SU & ATS ( + 9.5 )
2002 >>
vs Detroit Won 24-17 SU & Lost ATS ( -7.5 )
@ New England Lost 17-27  SU & ATS ( + 3.5 )
2001 >>
@ San Francisco Lost 0-35  SU & ATS ( + 8.5 )
vs NY Jets Lost 31-37 SU & ATS ( + 3 )
2000 >>
vs San Diego Won 27-24 SU & Lost ATS ( -10 )
@ Indianapolis Lost 20-44 SU & ATS ( + 7 )
 
There you have it .
That's a mayor hangover the Bills have.!
 
Buffalo Bills are 2-15 ATS ( 4 - 13 SU ) after playing the Miami Dolphins
 
NY Jets are the "Favorite"  trend pick of the week
 
Trend pick results YTD : 
 
Underdog trend picks : ( 10 - 6 YTD )
Favorite trend picks :  ( 6 - 7 YTD )
" Totals "  trend picks : ( 5 - 2 YTD )
 
All picks : 21 - 15  YTD  
 
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Captain
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Posted: #2
                          Updates for week 14
Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 :  Favs  7 - 7 ATS
Week 9 :  Favs : 5 - 9 ATS
Week 10 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS
Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS
Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS
Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS
 
YTD : Favs lead 106 - 98 - 4 ( 52 %  )  ATS
 
Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8 - 0  ( one game canceled )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5 - 0
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs   8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs   4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs   7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs   6 - 7 - 1
Week 9 : Overs   5 - 7 - 2
Week 10 : Overs  9 - 5 - 0
Week 11 : Overs 5 - 10 - 1
Week 12 : Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 13 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 14  Overs  4 - 11 - 0
 
YTD Overs lead  101 - 100 - 7  ( 50.2 %  )
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Note : The Unders came raining down to just about pull even with the Overs in week 14 .
 The favorites are a little more stubborn to give up their lead . There has not been a week where the Dogs showed up in DD's this year.
 But,  favorites have won out before as most of you will perhaps not fondly recall "  the year of the favorite "  in the not so distant past . 
Most surprisingly I have to say has been the streak of DD favorites not covering until recently ( despite favorites leading )
The run of Overs on MNF ,  and the amount of Favorites covering on Thursdays and MNF to a lesser degree .
Still,  don't be surprised though if they Dogs have a final say and come out  barking and biting out of nowhere !
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Yeah you rite Robert, 

Lets make some monies. what you said.

Thursday night
New Orleans at Chicago
Over or Under

for Me I think NO and Over.
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Another unsual trend at least until week 14 has been the poor performance of Home teams in general .
As I stated in previous threads ....
This is a year in transition.
 
MJ2345 provides us with an article that points out the dismal performance of Home teams this season ...
The article was written on Nov 21 st and covered the first 11 weeks of the season ..With the update >>>

Home Teams vs Spread (since 1999)

2008: 87-114-2 ( through 14 weeks )
2007: 126-121
2006: 122-126
2005: 123-123
2004: 114-132
2003: 115-117
2002: 122-125
2001: 119-112
2000: 110-128
1999: 118-114

Source: Las Vegas Sports Consultants

In week 12 Home teams went 4 - 11 - 1 ATS adding to that total

In week 13 Home teams went 5 - 10 - 1 ATS adding to that total

If all these numbers are accurate Home teams have gone 9 - 21 - 2 ATS the last 2 weeks of this season &  75 - 110 - 2  ATS ( 40.5 % ! ) for the year

This was posted on week 13's thread....

How did Home teams do on week 14 .

Quite well. Only 4 home teams failed to cover the spread on week 14 . Green Bay , Buffalo, NY Giants , and Denver . All of the other home teams  covered their spreads ,

So, for week 14 Home teams went 12-4 ATS

The Updated YTD numbers would be : 87 - 114 - 2  ATS ( 43.3 % )

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Captain
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Posted: #6
Updating TNF & MNF games through 14 weeks >>>
 
Games that have taken place either on Thursday or Monday
 thus far this season  >>>
 
Week 1 :
Thu : Fav / Under
Mon : Fav / Over
         Fav / Over
 
Week 2 :
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 3 :
Mon : Fav / Over
 
Week 4 :
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 5 :
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 6 :
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 7
Mon : Fav / push
 
Week 8 :
Mon : Fav / Over
 
Week 9 :
Mon : Dog / Under
 
Week 10 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 11 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
 
Week 12 :
Thu : Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Over
 
Week 13 :
Thu : Fav / Over
         Fav / Under
         Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Under
 
Week 14
Thu : Fav / Push
Mon : Fav / Over
 
Overs are 17 - 4 - 2 In all Thursday or Monday night football games this season
Favorites are 14 - 9 ATS in all TNF or MNF games this season , including 8 - 0 last 8 games
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
These are the combinations for TNF & MNF games  >>>
 
Fav / Over combined 9 times
Dog / Over combined 8 times
Fav  / Under  comined  3 times  
Dog / Under  combined 1 time
Fav / Push combined 2 times
 
The breakdown for MNF games  :
 
 12- 2- 1 OVERS
 8 - 7   Favs
 
Dog / Over  : 6 times
Fav / Over :  7 times
Dog / Under : 1 time
Fav / Under : 1 time
 
TNF
 
Overs : 5 - 2 - 1
Favs :   6 - 2
Favs / Overs combined 3 times
Favs / Unders combined 2 times
Favs / Push combined 1 time
Dogs / Overs combined 2 times
Dogs / Unders combined 0 times
 
Next matchups :
 
Thursday
New Orleans @ Chicago - 3 ( 44.5 )
MNF
Cleveland @ Philadelphia - 14 ( 38.5 )
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
By contrast Sunday night games >>>
 
Week 1 :  Dog / Under
Week 2 : Dog / Under
Week 3 : Fav / Under
Week 4 : Dog / Over
Week 5 : Dog / Over
Week 6 : Fav / Under
Week 7 : Dog / Under
Week 8 : Dog / Over
Week 9 : Dog / Under
Week 10 : Dog / Over
Week 11 : Fav / Under
Week 12 : Dog / Under
Week 13 : Fav / Over
Week 14 : Fav / Under
 
Unders lead  9 - 5 in all Sunday night  games YTD
Dogs still lead 9 - 5 in all Sunday night games YTD
 
Dogs / Under combined 5 times
Dogs / Over combined 4 times
Fav / Under combined 4 times
Fav / Over  combined  1 time
 
Next matchup ( SNF )
 
NY Giants @ Dallas - 3 ( 44 )
 
********************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Summary of high spreads for 2008
 
Group 1 ( Favorites of 9 & 9.5 points )
 
week 1 : 1-1 ATS
week 2 : 1-0 ATS
week 3 : 1-1 ATS
week 4 : 3-0 ATS
week 5 : 1-0 ATS
week 6 : 1-1 ATS
week 7 : 2-1 ATS
week 8 : 3-1 ATS
week 9 : 1-1 ATS
week 10   1 - 2 ATS
week 11 : 0 - 2 ATS
week 12 : 2 - 1 ATS
week 13 : 0 - 0  ATS
Week 14 : 1 - 1 ATS
 
Oak @ SD - 9.5 W
KC @ Denver - 9.5 L
 
 
Teams favored by 9 or 9.5 are 18- 12 ATS YTD
 
 
Group 2  ( Favorites of 10 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0 - 2 ATS
week 2 : 0 - 0 ATS
week 3 : 0 - 3 ATS
week 4 : 0 - 1 ATS
week 5 : 0 - 1 ATS
week 6 : 0 - 2 ATS
week 7 : 1 - 2 ATS
week 8 : 0 - 1 ATS
week 9 : 0 - 1 ATS
week 10 : 1 - 1 ATS
week 11 : 0 - 2 ATS
week 12 : 1 - 0 ATS
week 13 : 2 - 0 ATS
week 14 : 3 - 1 ATS
 
Minn - 10.5  @ Detroit L
Cincinnati @ Indi - 13.5 W
Cleveland @ Tennessee - 14 W
St Louis @ Arizona - 14 W
 
Teams favored by >= 10 are  8 - 17 ATS YTD
Teams favored by >= 10 are 6 - 1 ATS last 7
 
Week 15 matchups :
 
Detroit @ Indianapolis - 17 /18
Cleveland @ Philadelphia - 14
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Group 3  ( Favorites of 14 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0 - 1  NE - 16 Lost ATS
week 2 : None
week 3 : None
week 4 : None
week 5 : 0 - 1  Dallas - 16 Lost ATS
week 6 : None
week 7 : None
week 8 : 0 - 1 NY Jets - 14 Lost ATS
week 9 : None
week 10 : 0 - 1  SD - 14.5 Lost ATS
week 11 : 0 - 1  Caro - 14 Lost ATS
week 12 : None
week 13 : None
week 14 : 2 - 0
 
Cleveland @ Tennessee - 14 W
St Louis @ Arizona - 14 W
 
Teams favored by >= 14 are 2 - 5 ATS ( 2 - 0 last 2 ) YTD
 
These are the results using Covers lines as shown on NFL scoreboard ...
 
Week 15 matchups :
 
Detroit @ Indianapolis - 17 /18
Cleveland @ Philadelphia - 14
 
System plays :
 
Since 1994, favourites of at least 14 points that are coming off a 14 point or greater ATS victory are a solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%)
 
First team to qualify this year was Tennessee week 13
Tennessee won and covered making this system play 22-7 ATS ( 75.9 % )
 
As for Indianapolis & Arizona ,
Favorites of >= 14 points that failed to cover the spread in their past game or covered by less than a field goal are 16-32 ATS  in their next game.
Indianapolis & Arizona both covered making this sytem ( a bit weaker ) play now 18-32 ATS ( 36 % )
The teams under this system are 4 - 9 ATS going back to the start of the 2007-2008 season .
 
System Play
 
Detroit @ Indianapolis - 17 /18
 
Indianapolis in week 14 is  a play under the 22-7 ATS because the Colts are favored by at least 14 and are coming off a 14 point or greater ATS victory
 
Philadelphia in week 14 qualifies for neither system .
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
NFC vs AFC
 
Week 14 results :
 
Houston @ Green Bay - 6  AFC wins SU & ATS
Jacksonville @ Chicago - 6.5 / 7  NFC wins SU & ATS
New England @ Seatttle + 45.5 / 5 AFC wins SU NFC wins ATS
NYJets @ San Francisco + 3.5 / 4 NFC wins SU & ATS
Dallas @ Pittsburgh - 3  AFC wins SU & ATS
Washington @ Baltimore - 5 AFC wins SU & ATS
 
NFC wins convincingly with Chicago & San Francisco ( upset )
AFC wins convincingly with Baltimore & Houston ( upset )
New England sweats it out and has to score 11 points in the 4rth Quarter to overcome Seattle .
 
In what should have tilted the balance in favor of the NFC both in SU victories and ATS , Dallas squanders a 10 point 4th quarter lead and then gives it away ATS as well.
In the end , AFC comes away with 4 SU victories to 2 for the NFC, though the AFC fails to grab an ATS edge overall.
 
 
NFC leads the AFC  26 - 25 - 1  SU ( 51 % )
NFC leads the AFC  30 - 22  ATS  ( 57.7 % )
 
Note :
 
 AFC has been favored in 30 of these games going 13 - 17 ATS
NFC has been favored in 22 of those games going 
13 - 9  ATS
 
Week 15 upcoming games :
 
 
 
 
Washington - 6.5 / 7.5
Cincinnati
 
Denver
Carolina - 7.5 / 9
 
 
In a reversal of week 14 , the AFC hosts 4 of the 6 games week 15 , but it is the NFC that is favored in 4 of these 6 matchups
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
Bet tracker : Notes from week 14
Whether looking at the earlier or later in the week numbers, the top percentage recipient lost for the second consecutive week .
Week 13 Indianapolis was edged out by Cleveland .
Week 14 , New England couldn't handle the spread vs Seattle .
 
Bet Tracker  ( Tuesday )
New England 94 % LOST
Seattle 6 %
 
NY Jets 91 %  LOST
San Francisco 9 %
Chicago 82 %  WON
Jacksonville 18 %
Indianapolis 83 % LOST
Cleveland 17 %
 
Friday's #'s
 
New England 93 %  LOST
Seattle 7 %
 
NY Jets 87 %  LOST
San Francisco 13 %
Chicago 82 % WON
Jacksonville 18 %
Tennessee 81 % WON
Cleveland 19 %
Arizona 76 % WON
St Louis 24 %
Note : Indianapolis down to 74 %  LOST
 
Week 14 Bet Tracker
Tue / Wed
 
New England 90 %
Oakland 10 %
 
Washington 87 %
Cincinnati 13 %
 
NY Jets 82 %
Buffalo 18 %
 
Green Bay 81 %
Jacksonville 18 %
 
San Diego 78 %
Kansas City 22 %
 
Tennessee 76 %
Houston 24 %
 
Philadelphia 76 %
Cleveland 24 %
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
The following table shows how home teams with certain offensive/defensive rankings have done in matchups in the fifth week of the season and beyond using this rating scheme for both rushing yards and passing yards:
    - Top 10 Ranking worth one point
    - Rank of 11 to 20 worth two points
    - Rank of 21+ worth 3 points

Factors
Home Rank
Points
Spread W-L
Spread Win%
Rushing Defense + Passing Defense
2
208-160
57%
Rushing Offense + Passing Defense
2
206-139
60%
Passing Offense + Passing Defense
6
47-76*
38%
* as favorites

Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table there are three combinations that have been some distance from the 50% expected value. A few teams might be worth a closer look here in 2008:

  • New Orleans - face a home team _Chicago_ that ranks #21 in passing offense and #28 in passing defense

  • Baltimore - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #5 in rushing offense, #3 in rushing defense and #2 in passing defense

  • Oakland - Rank #10 in rushing offense and #9 in passing defense

  • Dallas - Rank #9 in rushing defense and #10 in passing defense

  • Philadelphia - Rank #8 in rushing defense and #6 in passing defense


Season-To-Date Results:
Record: 27-24

 
Veteran
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Posted: #14
i bet 1 reason for the AFC lagging this year is the collapse from 10+ wins for Jaguars, Browns, Chargers.  Both those teams were money last year.  Throw the Colts (first 6 weeks) in there too.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Great info.

Are you going to site your source on that table?  Twominutewarning.com TRENDS section says what?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #16
great info as always & thanks
 
Rookie
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Posted: #17
hey Roberto..the bills are actually 2-20 ATS after playing MIA...so even better! that was goin to be my play of the week
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Roberto
 
Why do you believe the bills history after playing the fish is important when capping?  I never paid attention to trends before reading your posts but you typically match a trend with an intuitive rason why its applicable. I'm not sure of any logical reason why this would be relevant.  I'm curious
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #19
Roberto:

Thanks as always for your contribution. Very thought provoking.

I thought you might want to add this to your weekly trend list.

I read somewhere that teams coming off Thursday games are 9-1 ATS when playing teams without the extra rest. I need to take the time to double check it, but I read it somewhere this week.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #20
I just checked on all the Thursday night games this year ans teams are 8-4 when they play the next week.  This week is San Diego and Oakland.  SD loks better the Oak this week.
 
Captain
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Posted: #21
I'll try to check back in before the MNF game ...and update what transpired on Sunday ...
I hope you all have a profitable Weekend ...
 
Only Trend pick of the week >>> NY Jets pending
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
Ny Jets come up short on the trend pick...
Updating YTD numbers next ...
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
     Updates for week 14
Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 :  Favs  7 - 7 ATS
Week 9 :  Favs : 5 - 9 ATS
Week 10 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS
Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS
Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS
Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS
Week 15 : Favs : 5 - 10 - 1 ATS
 
Note : A big week for the Dogs just I mentioned that the dogs had not come out in DD's the entire year , in week 15 we see just that !
Yet, despite this " adjustment " as we will see favorites continue to have their way in primetime games !...
 
YTD : Favs lead 111 - 108 - 5 ( 50.7 % )  ATS
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #24
Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8 - 0  ( one game canceled )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5 - 0
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs   8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs   4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs   7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs   6 - 7 - 1
Week 9 : Overs   5 - 7 - 2
Week 10 : Overs  9 - 5 - 0
Week 11 : Overs 5 - 10 - 1
Week 12 : Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 13 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 14  Overs  4 - 11 - 0
Week 15 Overs  6 - 8 - 2
 
YTD Overs  trail  108 - 107 - 9 ( 49.8 %  )
 Note :
Week 15 marks the first time this year that the overs are not leading over the Unders . It took awhile , but last 3 weeks took care of that as the unders go 28 - 17 - 1
 
 ****************************
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
Home teams update :

In week 12 Home teams went 4 - 11 - 1 ATS adding to that total

In week 13 Home teams went 5 - 10 - 1 ATS adding to that total

in week 14 Home teams went 12-4 ATS

How did Home teams do on week 15..

in week 15 home teams went 7 - 8 - 1 ATS

The Updated YTD numbers would be : 94- 122 - 3  ATS ( 43.5 % )

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