****Week 14 Card Plays and WriteUps****

Nice week 13.  Dogs and Unders, with the exception of the primetime games, where every favorite covered.  I think Sunday was a blood bath for many.  To everyone, you may want to fade me as I actually did write-ups and played on Buffalo and Jacksonville, who collectively turned in two of the worst performances in recent memory in the NFL.  I am bitter, as my other big play in Tampa pushed.  Overall I avoided disaster by luckily taking all the Sunday afternoon Dogs and did decent on Thanksgiving but it was not a week to remember.

Moving on to this week, I normally have a 4 unit play, but the play I like the most is against my favorite team in Dallas, and I am not going to lay 4 units against my team unless I am 100% certain they will get crushed anyway.   I do not see them getting blown out here but I give them a small chance of walking away with a W, which I will get into.  So with this, and keep in mind I hope I actually lose this pick, my first play is:

Pitt -3 Over Dallas (2 Units)

-          I realize this is a traitorous, Benedict Arnold esque pick, but I do not think Dallas matches up well here.  I do not have homer glasses for them and know their strengths and weaknesses well, and I think they are walking into a buzzsaw at Heinz this week.   And below are the reasons why:

 Stats:

I am not going to post Dallas offensive stats as their season splits are skewed by Romo being out.  They have also played a laundry list of horseshit defenses in Cleveland, Cincy, San Fran, and Seattle, so their numbers with Romo are inflated by facing inferior opponents.  They have seen exactly one defense that is even close to Pitts level in the NYG and could barely get a first down (yes I know Romo was out, another reason I’m not posting Dallas offensive stats).

Here are the Stats that matter:

Pittsburgh gives up only 14 points, under 230 total yards, and just over 70 rushing yards per game.  Think about this, as these are truly eye popping numbers.  This is by all accounts an elite defense, completely loaded at every position while at the same time having a brilliant defensive coordinator who invented a major portion of what you see in modern NFL defenses.  This is a complex, attacking unit that thrives on intimidating opponents and succeeds mightily.  Say what you want about the flash of Dallas, but they do not have any offensive statistics that can come close to matching how impressive Pitt’s D has been this year.

-          Matchup #2   Dallas’ Defense vs Pitt’s offense

-          Much like Romo, Roethlisburger is wrongly regarded by the public as a quarterback who handles pressure well and improvises.  My personal opinion is he is awful under pressure and their line has indeed been gashed by pass rushers.  Dallas may be able to get to him a few times, although it won’t be the same as All World OLB Demarcus Ware has a sprained knee.  This means that an over the hill Greg Ellis is going to have to have success against Willie Colon, and Jay Ratliff, who is emerging as an absolute beast at nose tackle will probably over-power Justin Hartwig on a few occasions.  Dallas may have some success against Big Ben in pressure, but it will not equal the pressure on Romo. 

-          My main concern with Dallas is their secondary.  Wade knows the only way to beat Roethlisburger is to bring the house, and I worry about the occasions on where the blitz is picked up, as Dallas’ secondary is undisciplined and can be had deep.  I won’t take away from Newman as he is elite but PacMan is a joke to begin with and will be rusty, Jenkins is banged up, Anthony Henry is simply awful most of the time, and they are down to a 3^rd string SS unless Watkins can go.  I think Wade is going to be dialing up pressure to entice Big Ben to throw picks, but on the occasions where the blitz is picked up a great portion of Dallas’ secondary with the exception of Newman is in big trouble if they are sitting on an island.  As for the linebackers, Bradie James had a strong showing last week but rarely puts together two great games, and I really haven’t seen Zach Thomas make a play this year.

Final Factors:

-          Pitt owns the coaching edge in a big way.  Garrett has made a name for himself but he is not yet a match for LaBeau.  I don’t think we need to say anything about Wade, if it was up to me he would be history.

-          Pitt is the mentally and physically tougher team.  Who knows what the weather will be like but if its anything less than perfect conditions Dallas is at a major disadvantage, as their perceived speed advantage will be neutralized.  I love my Cowboys but I am frustrated that they are not a well disciplined, tough minded team.  I will stop short of calling them soft but they are the softer team in this case, by a wide margin.

-          The Bottom Line is I see Pitt giving Romo fits, and without Felix Jones or a healthy Barber providing insurance, the fact that TO will be neutralized by Pitt’s physical scheme, that Palomoulo will be shading Witten when he’s not blitzing with a fury, and I see a 7 point minimum Pitt victory.  There is no motivational edge as both teams need this game and I am going with the elite defense against the undisciplined road team.

Final Note:  I hope I am wrong.