Week 12 some good bets on the board

Over the past 10 years of capping we (me and my brother)  have done pretty well i think atm we are at # 5 in the contest jazzyblue is our nfl picks ....the one thing we have noticed is that Ugly wins! But trying to convince other people of this is like trying to convice people that the sky is purple.

I'm not going to give away all of our secrets here i do that other places, but I will give 2 examples to make my point.

This year in the NFL teams that are dogs by 8 points or more are running about 70% to cover, this last week all 4 of them covered.

The well publisized west coast teams traveling to the east for a 1pm game is running above 65%.

And maybe one of the uglier ones is the star player going down. When a team looses its "star player" that team is about 65% to cover its next game!

The problem is people dont want to bet these. In fact i gave away all of my best bets based on these and other principles to friends over the past 2 weeks and all of them combined hit at a 73.85%......but guess what, when i called my friends to ask them how much they made, they replied....." i didnt take the bets, i just could not bring myself to take the bet because it looked so bad on paper" well, their loss i guess, you cant fix stupid.

Here is the thing, sometimes you have to bet with your brain and not your heart, in fact, almost always this is a good idea.

Over the past few years we have developed a number of what we call "class bets" these are bets (like the ones mentioned above) that fall into a specific category that become automatic bets regardless of what.

It is our theory that if you have identified a class of bets such as all teams getting 8 points or more that has a historical win % above 53% ...IT IS AN AUTOMATIC BET! I dont even have to look any further.

In fact when we have tried to weed out which of the bets in a class wont apply like miami last week because of other stats or factors, we always end up guessing wrong and messing with the percentage.

I will post a bit more on class bets in other posts but heres my first post so i want to make it a good one and a helpful one. My wife thinks im retarded so im going to try and prove her wrong.

Any NFL team that is getting 8 points or more BET THEM! dont think just bet it!

Any team that is traveling West to East for a 1pm game BET THEM! unless they are an 8 point or more dog.

My above analysis is easy to check just go back throgh the schedule and you will see the math for yourself....in fact go back the past 2 years.

SO WITHOUT FURTHER ADO ILL TAKE SOME OF MY OWN ADVICE FOR WEEK 12

Ill take DETROIT +8.5 against Tampa bay
Give me CINCINNATI +10 at pitsburgh
Ill take OAKAND +9.5 at Denver

I will have more picks after i do my handicapping for the week, but as i mentioned some class bets for me are simply automatic...these are 3 of them

good luck

and I thought I was the only one with that same theory...I used it in the nba as well.....bol

 

going against the square is the correct way.

The public is so f'n stupid its hilarious.

I worked in a book for 10 years and it was

so funny how even the employees didnt learn

how to win.

 

Lol nope...just most of the handicappers are just worthless fakes and the ones who are any good and do know about it also know how dumb the general betting population is ...and no one wants to PICK such ugly looking teams let alone pay money to be told to bet them lol

First rule, is alway never bet with your heart

nice info.. if u don't no ,ya gonna have l's

like the picks addin jets.. gl this wk     

total bets are a bit diffrent to be honest and affected by a lot of things...one of the main reasons i generally dont make my final best picks until saturday night is so that i can take into account the weather...ill post some stuff on the total math on saturday when i do my weekely picks.