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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick
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#26
Posted: 10/13/2008 9:27:18 AM
good writeup bud, BOL to you Im scared to take unders in MNF it always seems to get high scoring game ... maybe just paranoia but not sure yet what to do under looks strong I have to agree
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#27
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:16:15 AM
.................gl
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#28
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:18:48 AM
thanks aussie , grabbed a little this am at 44.5 and will grab a bit more later if the number creeps up a bit more
 
thnxs for your posts
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#29
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:36:05 AM
GL Aussie. Public is on the over because this year is what we have had in MNF
I hope we don't see special teams or defense scoring a lot.
 
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#30
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:39:57 AM
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#31
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:42:32 AM
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#32
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:44:24 AM
gl
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#33
Posted: 10/13/2008 10:57:21 AM
Absolutely gougeous day here in Cleveland...about 80 degrees.  I think this is going to be a very high scoring affair tonight.  There is a lot on the line for the Browns and they need a win bad to even have a snoballs chance in hell of getting in the playoffs.  They will not defensively be able to hold down the Giants so points will be the key to a win.  I expect 50 in this one, but good luck.
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#34
Posted: 10/13/2008 12:19:56 PM
44 is a key number in totals.  Not as important as 41 or 37, but getting 44 is important.  24-20, 27-17, 30-14, 31-13 are all possible scores where 43.5 burns you for the under.  I would wait until it hits 44 or even 44.5 then take the under.  Public should drive this up for MNF.  GL Aussie, keep up the good work!
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#35
Posted: 10/13/2008 12:53:56 PM
jeffro has a very good point
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#36
Posted: 10/13/2008 12:58:17 PM
under is right.

43 at the open caught my eye as being too low.

there for a reason. game should stay under and break the trend of overs.
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#37
Posted: 10/13/2008 1:01:07 PM
Romeo knows that browns fans are becoming unpatient with his conservative style. I think that added to anderson playing for his job(and not booos-from fans) will give clev at least 17-21 pts?
 
But you could be rt.?Good luck
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#38
Posted: 10/13/2008 1:12:44 PM
GL
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#39
Posted: 10/13/2008 1:27:54 PM
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#40
Posted: 10/13/2008 1:28:39 PM
i was pretty upset at that blocked field goal.   considering i took the under at 53.5!  crazy how things sort of happen when your feeling comfortable as hell after a total 14 at half.  

i like your pick for the simple reason i do not believe it will happen.  

yes it's been that kind of nfl weekend for me.
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#41
Posted: 10/13/2008 1:40:22 PM
GL Aussie I'm leaning Browns and Under here
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#42
Posted: 10/13/2008 2:01:46 PM
any one thinking the over and  gee men -3 was thinking score will be 31-13   or 27-13 ???????????  any help on that
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#43
Posted: 10/13/2008 2:07:28 PM
BOL Aussie... leaning the over as well...
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#44
Posted: 10/13/2008 2:49:42 PM
GL tonite
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#45
Posted: 10/13/2008 3:03:58 PM
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#46
Posted: 10/13/2008 3:22:40 PM
cleveland is going to put it together after a buy and a first win of the season....shaun rogers is going to have 3 sacks...front 4 are going to put a ton of pressure on manning, and we all know what manning plays like under pressure....Clevelend getting+9 at home on MONDAY NIGHT?!!!! I like a close game with browns covering, and lower scoring then predicted...my pic is browns+9....although BROWNS+15 AND UNDER 50 SOUNDS A LOTTTTT BETTER!!!!
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#47
Posted: 10/13/2008 3:35:41 PM
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#48
Posted: 10/13/2008 3:40:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by special__k:

BOL Aussie... leaning the over as well...

garbage, I meant the under... no longer a lean... now a play.
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#49
Posted: 10/13/2008 5:02:12 PM

Morning everyone -   Well, Just a few hours before kick off and things have slighltly evened out. This game is a classic mind game of Vegas.  I love it!! They open a certain line or a total, which at first glance looks intimidatingly quite low or high. Then the public gets carried away (or rather freaked out) and pounds the opposite of the freakish line. Hence we had over 90% last night jump on the Over, pushing the total up to 45 with some books. Then finally Late sharp money comes in for the Under from the Big Bad Boys catching it to the highest total, and balancing it back down to 42! That's where it's gonna settle now until game time I'm thinking ...  

This my friends is brilliant book movement. I read many of you talking about this and that and the Giants being a high scoring team and the Browns needing to score alot and so forth.... Remember what I always crap on about? Wagering as a Sports Fan vs. Wagering as a sports Investor It is all about the gift and the ability to read the book and to try and outsmart the line maker. (often easier said than done though) 

Now, This may or may not stay UNDER, but in my very humble opinion that is the right play in this particular game.

Now after all my loooooong winded speel watch this blow right in my face and fly well over the total  and end up some 65pts

Nah I very highly doubt it. Best of luck to everyone with whatever you have. I'm out. Wishing everyone their best ...

Cheers 

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#50
Posted: 10/13/2008 5:22:14 PM
The total has gone down from 10 hours ago.  This happens a lot to your picks Aussie,  I guess the "Big Bad Boys" must read your threads forcing the Bookies to adjust.  Good Luck to all. .
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