Posted: 1/1/2013 1:47:11 PM
This is what I do - give me some time to do a write-up, I make it look good. But it's about WINNERS... let's see if there's any inside....
GiLz Wild Card Weekend Predictions:
**** WILD CARD WEEKEND ****
• Texans (-4.5) -vs- Bengals = (O/U 43)
Remember how the Texans started the year off? Front runner of AFC championship where no Brady, no Manning was in talks. Bashing of the Broncos. Took a butt kicking from the Packers but then bounced back with a 30 point trouncing of the 4th seed Ravens... remember those Texans? Well, they aren't those Texans anymore. Finishing the year going 1-3 heading into the playoffs is a spell for disaster. Historically, going into the playoffs NOT HOT can cost you an early exit. Texans had something to play for the last 4 games, a win secured a game up and homefield throughout. They lost 3 of those games by 28, 17, 12; 19pt average. The team visiting Texan Stadium are the 6th seed, The Bungals. The HOT Bungals. The Bungals who won 7 of 8 coming into playoffs, and only loss was a 1pt loss to Cowboys. Those 7 wins were by an average of 2 touchdowns, 14pts. And more importantly, of those 7 wins... they covered ATS all 7.
[GiLzKey] = HOU; Schaub, A. Johnson, Foster, JJ Watt -vs- CIN; Dalton, AJ Green, Gresham, O-Line, D-Line. If Dalton can stay upright -vs- the pass rush of the Texans, I think he can pick apart that secondary. I will go ahead and pin *BOUNCE BACK MODE* right now on Andy Dalton for his poor start last year in the playoffs; same time, same place, same round. Bengals best shot is Dalton -vs- Schaub. Keep it out of Foster's hands.
> ATS Pick: Bengals +4.5
> TOTAL Pick: OVER 43
> WINNER ADVANCING: Bengals
• Packers (-8) -vs- Vikings = (O/U 46.5)
The hottest thing in the league right now heading to Lambeau Field... Adrian Peterson. 9 yards shy of ED's NFL record and his focus was clearly on the Vikings advancing to the playoffs with last week's 37-34 win over the Packers. For the Vikings to be doing what they're doing is amazing; give the ball to AP, AP run the ball, O-Line block, Ponder complete 2 deep balls, and that's it. All this being done without arguably the best offensive weapon on the team, Percy Harvin. Not only is this team All AP, All Day, but the defensive has been on a tear of late too. Scoring on defense keeps you in games, or takes over games. They've been doing that. Going into Lambeau away form their dome will be different then last week, I expect the outcome to be much different too... one sided, actually. Christian Ponder will feel the pressure of winning the Vikings 1st playoff game since Brett Favre was in purple & the pressure of the Packers 3-4 Capers scheme. Charles Woodson will be back playing his SafetyBackerBack position. Packers are fairly capable of shutting down the run game this time around -vs- AP; AP had 210 on the ground last time @ Lambeau and 143 was after contact... which shouldn't happen this time with Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson both on the field. They weren't last meeting @ Lambeau.
[GiLzKey] = GB; Rodgers, All WR, O-Line, Front 7 -vs- MIN; Ponder, AP, any WR, D-Line, DB's. Vikings D-Line -vs- Packers O-Line has a clear advantage. Jared Allen has sacked Aaron Rodgers 15 times in his career. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked more then any QB in the league. But outside of Allen, the Vikings pass rush in below average. And with Aaron Rodgers' Career QB Rating of 116.4 -vs- the Vikings (highest -vs- any team with 4+ starts/11 career starts -vs- Vikings) I think the Vikings are going to have trouble, All Day. I'll take the more talented team in a rematch, especially after just 1 week, any time, in any sport.
> ATS Pick: Packers -8
> TOTAL Pick: UNDER 46.5 / GiLz Trend; Primetime Divisional UNDER's are 17-6 this year.
> WINNER ADVANCING: Packers