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G-Man's BOWL GAMES - GOY Plays and all 5 and 10 Star Plays

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This is G-Man's Bowl game sheet for the bowl season.

Courtesy of theoddsarein an The G-Man Wins! for all Covers readers. 
Games to be added daily.

Wyoming +7 over Temple.
 Battle tested bowl teams are most reliable,  especially when we have an underdog who was outscored by only four bowl opponents on the regular season at half time. Those 4 were Nebraska, TCU, Utah State and Boise...- all of which - are far superior to todays opponent, the Temple Owls. 

I don't expect Ming to trail here at the half,  and look for a spread winner at least, with Ming - if not a SU win. 
Temple Owls struggled to score against Bowlers this season,  averaging only 18pts per game and that means this one should favor the Cowboys

Wyoming+7   5*.



Ohio +1 over Utah State

Play of QB Tettleton for Ohio is just to much to overcome for Utah State here today.  Bobcats are effective on the defense as well and should pull out a SU win here. 
Over blown score against Wyoming (63-19) earlier this year, has given too much credit on the season for Utah State and they only won one other game against a bowl opponent this season (Nevada) 21-17. 

Ohio +1  10*



UL- Lafayette +4 over San Diego State

Under rated Gautier at QB for UL. here is an unknown.  Blaine carries a 150 qb rating with 20 tds and only 5 ints.  Cajuns late win here possible.

UL-Lafayette+4     5*



 
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Posted: #2
Bowl record from Saturday 2-1 +9.1 units.


Marshall +4.5 over FIU


Herd is facing the weakest of teams that are bowl bound in this match up today that the Herd has faced all season.

Marshall opponents - Tulsa, Houston, Louisville, Vir Tech, West Virg and Ohio are all better than FIU. 

FIU has not won a game against a bowl bound team this season and I don't expect anything different here tonight. 

MARSHALL +4.5
5*








 
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Posted: #3
current record now 3-1 +14.5 units.

On to today's play with Louisiana Tech over TCU

In Louisiana Tech's out of conference games, they have lost by 6 or less in each encounter.  They lost to S.Miss by 2, Houston by 1, and Miss State by 6. 

TCU would likely lose to both Houston and S.Miss and would be hard pressed tonight to score enough on an LT defense that rocked high scoring bowlers and hung right with them this season.
Add the fact that TCU has struggled on defense and we see the advantage here for LT + points. 
Daltons TCU replacement Pachall at QB is having a good season, but he will be exposed here tonight in his first bowl game.

Louisiana Tech +10
5*
 
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Current 2011 Bowl results through Wednesday Dec 21st posted here at Covers.

Wyoming +7 over Temple.        Lost -5.5 units
Ohio +1 over Utah State.          WON 10 Units
UL Lafayette +4  over SDSU.    WON  5 Units
Marshall +4.5 over FIU.             WON 5 Units
Louisiana Tech +10 over TCU.  WON 5 units
                                                                      
4-1.   up 19.5 units


Arizona State +14.5 over Boise
Arizona State comes in here losing 4 straight and gets the coach fired in the process. 
Boise gets beat by TCU and wins their last three to finish the regular season. Boise though, loses seven(7) straight against the spread!

Schedules make bowl games interesting, mainly because of the teams true performance against the level of competition.  The Pac is far superior  for the most part to the MWC and this season Boise has under achieved. They lost the MWC title to TCU who was without Dalton this year.
While Moore is still a top level QB, he has operated with less quality receivers this season and a running game that was suspect at times.  In all defensively, they lost 4 starters and it should show in this game tonight. 
Boise also had the soft schedule by playing only 2 competitive defensive teams when I checked. Those were Georgia and TCU.   TCU beat Bosie in Boise and Georgia improved as the season went on. Boise faced all other bowl bound opponents, who were outscored by the other bowlers, that each of those teams faced.

Arizona State has faced stiffer competition in the Pac and are lucky to be here after 4 straight losses. Looking at who they played tells a story here that isn't always easy to see.
In the teams they played who are bowl bound, they faced 4 of 6 opponents that allowed under 30pts per game against other bowlers.  That is significant here because Boise faced 8 bowl teams and only 2 allowed under 30 pts to other bowlers.

Arizona State appears to be the 3rd competitive team Boise is facing this year after TCU and Georgia, and the fact that Boise struggled ATS (2-6 vs Bowlers) of which 3 of the teams they played who appeared in bowl games are already 1-2 SU and 0-3 ats in those bowl games.
This makes for a solid play on Arizona State +14.5.
(A small ML+425 isn't out of the question either.)
Take the points.

Arizona State +14.5
10* GOM



 
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Nevada +7 over S.Miss

7*


 
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Little Caesars Bowl    Tuesday 4:30PM

Purdue -1.5 over Western Michigan.

Both teams here faced some solid programs.  WM faced only 4 bowlers, while Purdue faced 7. 

WM faced 2 other Big 10 teams this season.  @ Michigan and @ Illinois, losing both times.    In their 7 wins they had 5 at home and 2 on the road.  The 2 road wins were against Miami, Ohio and Conn. WM doesn't do well traveling regardless  that this is a "neutral" site game.  Besides that, they were allowing a whopping 44pts per game against bowlers.  Ironically most were given up against Toledo(66pts) and N.Illinois (51). 
In the two Big 10 games they held Michigan to 34pts, and Illinois to 23. What is most important today, is that they only scored 10pts on Mich and 20 on Ill.  Purdue brings a better defense to this game, than those two opponents had at the time of those games.

Purdue faced bowlers that were ALL better than Western Michigan.  This is a drop down in competition for Purdue, with WM as the opponent today.

PURDUE -1.5
10* GOY 



 
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N.C. State -1.5 over Louisville
3*
 
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Toledo +3 over Air Force. TOP (time of possession) is key here, if Toledo can keep the ball, then AF will find scoring tough.  AF has a terrible run defense and that will allow Toledo a chance to play a balanced run/pass game. 
AF lost all their games SU against bowlers this season.

Take the points and The Rockets
5*


Texas -3 over California
7*
Longhorn's get a big break today as they are facing a far less potent QB, then when they faced RG-III and Baylor. 
Expect the Texas defense to shut down Cal and roll to a win here with a opportunistic defense that will capitalize on a turnover-prone Cal team tonight.

Texas 7*
 
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Correction.>  Play Toledo -3 not plus 3. 
 
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Current record through Wednesday Dec 28.
7-3-1 + 23.0 units
Wyoming +7 over Temple.        Lost -5.5 units
Ohio +1 over Utah State.          WON 10 Units
UL Lafayette +4  over SDSU.    WON  5 Units
Marshall +4.5 over FIU.             WON 5 Units
Louisiana Tech +10 over TCU.  WON 5 units
Arizona State +14.5 over Boise  Lost-11 units
Nevada +7 over S,Miss              PUSH
Purdue -1.5 over West. Mich     WON 10 units
N.C. State +1.5 over Louisville  WON 3 units
Toledo -3 over Air Force            Lost -5.5 units
Texas -3 over California              WON 7 units


Thursday Plays Dec 29

Notre Dame +3 over Florida State. 

Wrong team favored here IMO, as we have a tough ND defense that can stop Florida States weak running game and make them a one-dimensional team ,which won't fare well in this intense battle. 
Fla State has the worst running offense of all the bowlers, averaging just 2.7 yds per carry and a measly 84 yds per game against bowl teams. 
FSU has a seemingly good defense and that is what will draw attention to those who follow FSU, but that defensive showing is against average bowl teams overall.

ND has faced far better competition with games against Michigan, Mich State, Purdue and Stanford.  Three of which would bury FSU -  and - ND only allowed an average of 21points per game against those teams.  Take away the 6 turnovers ND had at Michigan - and we have a whole different perspective on how good ND really is.

Notre Dame +3
10 * GOY


Washington +9.5 over Baylor.
 
Baylor faced one true solid team in Oklahoma State and they were 14.5 point dogs.  OK St won 59-24 and Oklahoma State has a soft defense as well..  Baylor simply bombards the competition unless they face a solid defense.  Even in Baylors' three losses, none of the teams are considered defensive teams.

Washington had big games with Stanford, USC and Oregon and were outscored by bowlers by an average of 6 pts per game, including a 65-21 beating by Stanford.  The Huskies have allowed 31pts per game against bowl teams who were all considered better than Baylor - and all the teams Baylor faced - except maybe Ok St.
Baylor has been outscored against bowlers, 40-41, but still has a 9-3 record.

The points are too large here and winning SU isnt impossible for Washington, IMO.
The Huskies have a talented QB in Keith Price who replaced Jake Locker, (remember him?) and 15 starters from last year, that will all show up tonight.

Washington +9.5
10* Bowl Underdog GOM
 
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Tulsa -1 over BYU.

Tulsa is one of the three best bowl teams to not win a division title.  (Stanford and Bama are the other two.)
They faced Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Houston, and Boise.  Today they face a very low ranked BYU team, when compared to those bowlers.

Tulsa-1.
15* GOY



 
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Rutgers +1.5 over Iowa State
7*
 
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Mississippi State –6.5 over Wake Forest. 

 

Mississippi State held five of seven bowlers to an average of 20pts per game. The other two were, Arkansas 44 pts and Auburn 41pts, both on the road. 

 

Wake played road games with Clemson and N, Carolina allowing 49 to Carolina and 31 to Clemson, while allowing an average of 34 pts per game to all bowlers. 

 

The other five teams that Miss St. played were Bama, S, Carolina, LSU, Louisiana Tech and Georgia./

 

Miss State –6.5

12*    

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa +13.5 over Oklahoma

 

A year ago Oklahoma was favored by 16 points against Conn and buried them in a 48-20 game.  Conn  qb Zach Frazier, was picked for 2 ints and Conn never recovered.

Oklahoma scored two  4th quarter td’s to cover the 16pt line. 

 

This year they face an opponent that is much better than Conn was a year ago, in Iowa. 

While Iowa lost qb Ricky Stanzi to the NFL,  they have replaced him with a competent qb in Vandenberg, who is putting up Stanzi-like numbers as well. While Iowa lacks the defense they had a year ago, Oklahoma will still be tested here. 

 

Iowa +13.5

15*  

 
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Northwestern +9.5 over A&M
10*

UTAH +1.5 over GT
15*

Illinois -3 over UCLA
10*

Cincinnati +1.5 over Vanderbilt
10*

 
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Virginia +3 over Auburn
5*
 
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Penn State/Houston
A won-loss match up where the two teams are on totally different levels. PSU has had some time to put the scandal behind them.  They will be focused today and getting back to playing defense as usual.

Penn State +7.5 over Houston
15*

Penn State ML +235.
3*


Michigan State +3 over Georgia.  This Georgia team was favored last year over  Cent Michigan and lost SU.  Getting ready for bowl games isn't what Georgia seems to do well.
Mich State played only three games this season, where the opponent scored more than 30 pts. Two of those games were against Wisconsin. Georgia will not outscore this Spartan bunch today.

Michigan State +3
10*

 
S.Carolina -3 over Nebraska. 
SC RB Lattimore being out, is a big loss for the Gamecocks here.  But more important, is the fact that Garcia is gone, as he tossed 3ints in last years loss to FSU.
SC qb Connor Shaw will have a tough time as his replacement today, but is winning games for the Spurrier offense

The Huskers are solid on defense, but nothing like a year ago.  They also had a 35-21 scoring advantage against bowlers last year.  This season they have a small advantage 27-25 because they faced Big10 competition.  Nebraska held Washington in the Bridgepoint Bowl to 19pts last year, as neither team passed for 100 yards in the bowl game!

The SC defense is far better than what Nebraska has faced this season

South Carolina -3
10*



Ohio State +3 over Florida.
5*
 
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Wisconsin +4 over Oregon
20*

Stanford +4 over Oklahoma State
15*
 
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Last of the Big 10 teams to play in a bowl game, arrive as an early favorite, mainly because of VT losses to Clemson. 
Bowlers that Michigan played who are already done with their games went a combined 3-7 in bowls.

Virginia Tech who was favored in all of the regular season games,  are now 3pt dogs to line movement from an opening +1 line early.
VT is 18-8 in games against teams with a winning record and seem to play their best when the competition is ranked.  The dog role here is very attractive. 

The Big 10 has disappointed overall and I find no reason to fear a Michigan team that was searching for their pulse after losing to Michigan State and IOWA.

The VT defense should do to Michigan, what Michigan State's defense did. 

VT +3
15*
 
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You & MoPinkie have very, very similar taste in games....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Clemson is truly a team that you can expect the unexpected.  After going 8-0 they finish the season by going 2-3 and pounding VT by 28pts in the season playoff game!

West Virginia was beat by LSU but won in the stats against them.  WV had out gained them by 166 yards in that lopsided score.
More importantly WV is the second of 2 teams to score more than 17 points on LSU this season.  Oregon scored 27 and WV 21.

This game is going to be decided by Geno Smith.  With 49 tds and only 14 ints in the last 2 seasons he will be hard for Clemson to stop him.
The Tigers have a good qb in Boyd. He has 11 ints this season against  31tds. 

WV has extremely talented WR's and that should make for a win here tonight.

WV +3
20*
 
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Arkansas -9 over Kansas State.

 Line movement wont back me off from making this a play tonight.  Originally at 7.5, was still off by another 7. This number would be more accurate at Arkansas -15. 
Razorbacks were dogs twice this season. Against Bama +12  LSU +11.  KS is not equipped to handle the  level of play that Arkansas will bring tonight. 

KS may score, but not within the number tonight.  Looking for another "Full Moon" rout like WV gave Clemson on Wednesday.


Play on
Arkansas.
15*
 
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Arkansas State-1 over N. Illinois
5*
 
 
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Alabama -2.5 over LSU.
25*

The rematch comes down to turnovers and special teams.  While both teams excel in special teams, there is a difference in turnovers.  In the last game between these two at Alabama, they both had 2 turnovers.  Bama also missed field goals that cost them the game.  In spite of those issues, the Tide actually out gained LSU. 
In the turnover department LSU has gone on to continue to turn the ball over, while Bama, has one turnover in its last 3 games.

This one is in the Dome.  More importantly, they are on turf. 
While both teams actually play on grass fields, we should see a running game advantage for the Tide.  Bama RB Richardson is also supported by two other great backs in Lacy and Fowler and that should be what gets the cover here in this game.. 

One other factor that allows the play on Bama, is the LSU QB's never seemed to be all that solid even though they carry  great ratings.  In the last match in at Bama, they combined for 91 total passing yards.  That wont get it done this time.

Bama should be able to improve the run defense against LSU  and pull this one out.

Play on Alabama 25*
Top Bowl Game Play Of The Season.

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