Posted: 8/12/2009 12:45:39 PM
Looking for some value in NFL futures, the one over/under win total that stood out for me was the New York Jets at seven. There’s no chance the Jets sniff eight wins this year; we’ll get to why in a second.
This under is available at -105 at www.bookmaker.com and I have found it anywhere from even money to +110 at several Nevada sportsbooks.
My first instinct was that Jets can’t possibly cover the over here, and upon further review, I stand by this analysis. In fact, I intend to fire every nickel I can find on the Jest at under seven wins for even money or better.
I still don’t understand the hype with this team and, in particular its over-hyped first-round quarterback, Mark Sanchez. Trust me, this guy is the next Tim Couch waiting to happen, and he’s not even as good as Couch.
The bottom line is that, between Sanchez and second-round flop Kellen Clemens, the Jets have by far the worst quarterback duo in the league. If you’ve ever seen Clemens play (5 career TDs, 11 INTs), you know the Jets have just as good of a chance with Roger Clemens at quarterback.
Though, come to think of it, turning to an old guy didn’t really work out for them last year.
They should have a decent running game with Thomas Jones and Shonn Green and a decent defense, but that’s about it. No real playmakers on offense, a rookie head coach and a couple of QBs that might have Jets fans wishing they had signed Michael Vick before long.
Now, teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens proved last year that it’s possible to win with both a rookie QB and a rookie head coach. The difference here is, both guys from both teams were much more qualified than the “dynamic” duo the Jets are throwing out there.
Matt Ryan of the Falcons and Joe Flacco of the Ravens each had four years of college ball under their belts to make them more NFL-ready than Sanchez, who only started one season-plus at USC.
Also, coaches Mike Smith of Atlanta and John Harbaugh of Baltimore had been around all facets of the game longer than Rex Ryan, who is a defensive specialist and admittedly lacks much in the way of people skills.
Moreover, the Jets start their season with road games at Houston, New Orleans and Miami, tossed in with home games against New England and Tennessee. It’s not inconceivable that they could start 0-5.
They would have to go 8-3 the rest of the way to get over bettors the money and, in a difficult AFC East, I wouldn’t count on it. Or bet on it, for that matter.
It’s going to be long season for Jets fans, but it says here you could make it a profitable one by firing on them at under seven wins for the season.
Good luck to everyone.