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follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

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Posted: #1
Year to date:  34-21 (62%)
Best Bets:  12-5  (71%)
ML Dogs:  8-4  (67%)
 
 
Week 6 plays:
 
BYU (-28)
*Nevada (-24.5)
*Tx Tech (-6.5)
Bowling Green (-20.5)
Oregon (+17)
 
 
 
 
will be looking at:  Missouri, Air Force, Ball St, Tulane (???), Colorado, Kansas
 
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Posted: #2
What you think about Missouri game shep???  Home team won the last 6 meetings and 8 of the last 10. Feel like this is to easy to me Mizz - 10.5.
 
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Posted: #3
smells like a trap game to me
 
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Posted: #4
yea... i might just try to talk myself out of that one DY... really want to ride Missou coming off the bye, but i'm not in love with their defense, and Nebraska can score points... Nebraska may very well be a live Big 12 dog this week, along with Colorado...
 
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Posted: #5
I know i was actually considering Nebraska, but prob will wait until game time if i do that because im sure public will pound mizz.
 
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Posted: #6
Nevada (-24.5):  wanted to do this before i start catching shit for making this a best bet... so let me start by saying, if you don't like the pick, don't bet it... i would be fine being all alone on this one...
 
simply, Idaho is #119 out of 119 in terms of Division I football teams... no contest!  Nevada started out with a brutal non-conf schedule, and handled it fairly respectably... i think opening up with that kind of schedule can really benefit a team if they respond well and don't get demoralized...
 
the way Nevada whipped up on UNLV last week, after falling behind 17-0, tells me this Nevada team is responding well...
 
Idaho has given up 40+ to all of their Div 1 opponents this year, and will definitely give up 40+ here... Nevada is weak on defense, but Idaho has little to threaten them with... expect to see CK running wild through the defense...
 
 
51-14
 
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Posted: #7
lot of road favs in the Big 12 this week... can't imagine they will all cover, or even all win... might have to look at a couple of totals, too...
 
Tx Tech - K St over comes to mind...
 
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Posted: #8
I love the Nevada pick...Idaho is one of the worst, if not the worst team in college football. Yesterday, they only gained 20 something yards through one and a half quarters against a SDSU team that isn't that good either. Nevada can put up points and I don't think Idaho can stop them...
 
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Posted: #9
Oh, and GL this week...Lets win some money!
 
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Posted: #10
thanks Dep... pretty much figuring when SD St can blow you out, everyone can blow you out... not anyone... everyone...
 
 
 
trying to narrow down my ML card for this week... here are some candidates...
 
Temple, Nebraska, Colorado, Ariz St, SD St, Toledo, UTEP, Rice, Oregon
 
 
 
i'm sure very few people liked my Houson ML pick last week... but if you remember my argument, SD St and Oregon both fit the same role...
 
 
which leads me to this... i apologize for the Toledo pick last week... i fucked up... i've been scratching my head baffled about that game and just realized yesterday that Toledo was in the same position as ECU last week, coming off of a loss that ended a legitimate BCS game possibility, AND the loss was in OT, AND they were now laying DD the following week... the exact same reasons i used to bet Houston on the ML are the reasons i should have been nowhere near Toledo... i don't know how i missed that...
 
so my bad on that one... can't offer any refunds though...
 
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Posted: #11
the other two games i will add to my card this week are Tennessee and Air Force... will also probably upgrade one more game to a best bet... either Oregon, Tennessee or BYU, depending on what happens to the lines in those games during the week...
 
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Posted: #12
already eliminated SD St from the ML card... did a little more research and decided TCU doesn't fit the role i was using to bet against them...
 
leaves me with 8 pretty decent looking ML dogs:
 
Temple, Nebraska, Colorado, Ariz St, Toledo, UTEP, Rice, Oregon
 
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Posted: #13
Shepherd you're not a rookie anymore , your picks make you look like a Veteran
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

lot of road favs in the Big 12 this week... can't imagine they will all cover, or even all win... might have to look at a couple of totals, too...
 
Tx Tech - K St over comes to mind...

I like the Nevada pick.

I like TTech -7, but I'll take Over 100 as well.  The Cats just gave up 509 to ULala...and were lucky to win the game.   Their defense is extremely porous and will not improve in a week's time.  Looks like it could be a 66-40 type of game, and I'm not exaggerating.  Tech has been pretty good at exposing weakness in the middle/underneath stuff...Cats are not assignment sound and cannnot tackle to save their asses.  Tech will tie them in knots.  KSU DC is under big heat and will be the likely fall guy if Prince somehow keeps his job.  But in the meantime...too many defensive problems for them to even identify right now, let alone fix.

 

 
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Posted: #15
Shep, what do you think about Fresno -22.5 vs. Hawaii? 
Bitcoin, not crypto.
 
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Posted: #16
Shep is it just me or do all the big 12 games this weekend look like blowouts. Texas,Oklahoma,oklahoma state,kansas,missouri,texas tech. They all look to good to be true and you know what that means.
 
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Posted: #17
Shep,
 
What are your thoughts on these 4 games?
 
Utah -11.5
Duke +14
Illinois +2
Wisconsin +3
 
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Posted: #18
kimoins... i like Fresno St and Boise St... they are both 1/4 unit plays...
 
ksuwins... i will also be on the over on KSt/Tx Tech and Rice/Tulsa... two weeks ago (K St/Louisville) i paid close attention to the K St defense... what did i see?  about 70 points from Tx Tech and 8 TD passes by Graham Harrell...
 
 
couple of updates to my card this week...
 
added:  Tennessee (-16)
 
also sold my Nevada bet at (+25) and changed it to (-23.5), since there was a one and a half point discrepancy between the line at two books... i get low juice at the second book so only cost me an extra 5% juice to make the switch, and i get a possible middle at 24 and 25...
 
 
 
Updated Week 5 card:
 
BYU (-28)
*Nevada (-23.5)
*Tx Tech (-6.5)
Bowling Green (-20.5)
Oregon (+17)
Tennessee (-16)
 
 
* - best bets
 
 
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Posted: #19
realintheville... i believe i already made that same comment at the start of the thread...
 
cornerstone... i highly doubt Wisconsin has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Ohio St... definitely do not bet Wisc... of the others, Utah is obviously a public play this week, and i don't particularly like it... who the hell is Utah to be laying 12 against the team that just knocked off USC???  what are people thinking?  last time a BCS hopeful WAC team (BYU) played a mid to low level Pac 10 team (Washington), the WAC team was lucky as hell just to get a win... and that's a better WAC team vs. a worse Pac 10 team... don't follow the public wave on that one...  Illinois shouldn't be the dog in the Michigan game... Duke/Ga Tech i just don't know... Duke seems like a pretty decent dog to me...
 
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Posted: #20
KSUwins already started my write-up on Tx Tech... i will say this, it is the strongest bet i've made since probably week 2... K St will get their asses blown off the field in this game... the Tx Tech offense vs. the K St defense is one of the biggest mismatches between two units that we will see the rest of this season... to be laying less than a TD tempts me to do what i normally never do, and that is double up to a 2 unit play... probably won't, but if i was ever gonna go big, this is it...
 
what i will most likely do is a ML parlay with Tx Tech and another team i think is a gimme at a fairly short price... will lay 1 unit to win roughly 1 unit...
 
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Posted: #21
realintheville pointed out (as i did earlier in the thread) that there are so many road favs and games that look like blowouts...
 
the irony is that, of all of the Big 12 games, the one that is least likely to be an upset, and most likely to be a blowout, is for sure the one with the smallest spread (Tx Tech - K St)...
 
i'd give Baylor a better chance of beating OU than K St has of beating Tx Tech...
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

realintheville pointed out (as i did earlier in the thread) that there are so many road favs and games that look like blowouts in the Big 12
 
 
corrected for clarification...
 
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Posted: #23
Wisconsin at home vs. true freshman QB.  They have a chance but may stay away from game.  Love that they lost last week.
 
Utah - lots of points but I see huge letdown for OSU.  I see OSU as being the public play.
 
Illinios may be the best bet this week against a Michigan team riding high off big win.  It will probably be a pk by Sat.
 
Duke - think GT has trouble getting hyped for Duke.  Duke is continuing to gain confidence.  Duke also already faced Navy this year which is same as Navy.
 
Thanks for your thoughts!  Much appreciated.  BOL
 
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Posted: #24
Same as GT offense.  Not Navy
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Cornerstone:

Utah - lots of points but I see huge letdown for OSU.  I see OSU as being the public play.
 
i agree that OSU may be in for a letdown... that is definitely the one angle that could favor Utah... however, there is no way in hell OSU is the public play... not a chance... i have seen about 100 people on this thread plugging Utah, and have not seen 1 person betting on OSU... the line opened at 9 and is already up to 12... public play for sure!
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