The best methods to bet the NBA

Shut up with your NFL examples, 165 is refering to the NBA, the same angles and trends don't apply to other sports retard...Tom brady being injured for the Pats doesn't mean his back up is going to step up and play better...you can't compare these sports

I write down all the games for the week on one sheet of paper. Tues-Mon is my bettin week. I make the list in advance and pick 1-3 games on each day for the week without the line. So ill have anywhere from 7-21 leans before lines come out.

I will then make my own line on the game before i look at real lines for that day. If my line is more than a point off i wont play it. Then i pick 1-3 games that i really like then try to figure out what my gut is tellling and pick make one final bet.

always look at the box scores, understand matchups and situations... keep it simple...personally i never use trends they mess with my head.... i will only look at the teams present ATS record and their W/L SU

165yds, if the info you presented ONLY pertains to betting NBA 2nd halves, I won't argue ANY points, as I don't have much knowledge in that area.  But if you applying these rules to NBA game or first half wagers or other sports, I have several issues with your post. 

 Either way, thanks for putting in a lot of thought and sharing some of your gambling ideas.  I have many, but it would take too long to fit on one page. 

The MOST important aspect of my handicapping ball games is to get an opening line and follow the movement.  I'll gladly take 1/2 or 1 point less by waiting to bet, as late movement or lack thereof is another crucial piece to the puzzle.

That being said, if you just bet based on line shifts, you are a fool.  It is just one of SEVERAL factors I ALWAYS incorporate into my handicapping. 

I also believe that you have to look for teams that are not playing up to par and fade teams that are playing well IF you think the situation dictates it.  I follow the philosophy that you are not as bad or good as your last few games.  That is why computers are overrated in capping: they don't factor in a team's mindset at that moment.  It is up to you, with some research, to determine what each team's mental state SHOULD be based on their play and schedule.

Also, I firmly believe that after thorough research, you should isolate your picks to 1 solid play a day and bet HEAVY on it.  And also do not be afraid to PASS if nothing looks good on the schedule.  There is always going to many more games to choose from on another day.  For example, if you are winning some money and PASS on a full NFL or NBA card on a given day because nothing looks bettable, you are disciplined enough to maybe be one of the few to win money handicapping in the long run.

I first look for an underdog to bet, then a small favorite, then lastly consider a totals play in football or baseball only.  Basketball totals are whacked, and I never had any long-term success betting them.  To follow up on an earlier point, if you were taking bets, would you rather have someone betting 5 games/day at $50 or 1 game/day at $250?  The first guy has NO shot of winning in the long run, as the juice will destroy him. 

Also, I used to hate paying 1.20 or even 1.15 juice.  But, If a line moves from 3' to 4, I would much rather have the extra juice of +4 -20.  A favorite of 4 -20 or 4 -25 is similar to 4'.  And a full point jump from the opening line of 3' is not preferred by me.  I want to see SMALL line movement OPPOSITE of who I like.  It all may seem odd, but this has been working very well for me lately.

Equally odd is that I analyze games backwards from common handicappers.  I analyze line movement before even looking at a game.  Then if it draws my attention, I will research the matchup for usually NO LONGER than 10 minutes.  Overanalyzing is just as bad as not analyzing.  And I also try to find at least one reason why I would bet EITHER side.  And I try to come up with at least 2 or 3 reasons to back my side.  Otherwise, the bet looks too easy, and they never are.  You then are basically saying the oddsmakers are stupid, and that is obviously not the case. 

Another reason why I wait till close to gametime to bet is that any big late movement happens for a reason, and usually it is due to a player sitting out that I would not have known about otherwise.  Unless it is a late night game where the lines have already moved for the most part, and I am going to a bar, I rarely bet a game early.

Good post 

Do you have the stats to back up your 60%, 70%, and 80% claims?

What is your record this year?

The star player angle and I think some are getting mixed up about is the perception has to be how are they going to replace 18,8,6.  If Melo was playing but say BIllups (Allstar type) was out than I would take the Nuggets.  This would only cause the line to move say 1 to 1.5 points but the perception would be they aren't covering tonight.