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7/31 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:

On Yanks and LA over.

Like Colorado over too, but watch out for that weather.

Yeah, I'll probably end up passing on that over.  I like my card as it is, no need to force anything else on slim margins.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Do you honestly think that the Yankees line-up is that much worse without those two guys?  They have a number of position players just dying to get some swings, who's to say the younger guys can't step up and fill the shoes of two guys that are hitting .276 and .256?  I don't see either of these as big losses.

Tex and Arod are 2nd and 4th in WAR for the Yanks this year.  #1 is Cano, who hasn't been seeing the ball well lately.  It's tough for me to say how well the replacements will play in their absence.  That's 35 HRs and 100+ RBIs right there.  
 
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Posted: #78
Si1ly: have you ever thrown out a few parley plays for fun based on your picks?  Fun being small plays that has good chance of hitting that didn't make your straight pick.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMan:


Tex and Arod are 2nd and 4th in WAR for the Yanks this year.  #1 is Cano, who hasn't been seeing the ball well lately.  It's tough for me to say how well the replacements will play in their absence.  That's 35 HRs and 100+ RBIs right there.  

Hmmm.. I didn't realize they ranked so high in the WAR statistic.  I guess I'll take my chances that other bats step up and take their place. 
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by WinSeeker:

Si1ly: have you ever thrown out a few parley plays for fun based on your picks?  Fun being small plays that has good chance of hitting that didn't make your straight pick.

I very rarely play parlays.  Maybe once every couple weeks I'll see a situational spot I like and I'll play a correlated parlay.  It has to be a perfect storm of favorable variables to get me to pull the trigger on a parlay and I only play them for a third of a unit.  I tend to think of them as long term losers with the potential for short term entertainment and surplus profit.  They're almost never a good idea, but I do enjoy the action some nights.
 
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Posted: #81
What ever you play, you have a huge amount of followers.  Discussions here are one of the best and consists of great and thorough info!!
 
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Posted: #82
I like both of the locked in plays. No mooses tonight
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

I like both of the locked in plays. No mooses tonight

I can't even consider last night a moose when I freaking said it in my write-up that I might lose the bet because of a bullpen implosion.  I felt so stupid for not playing the first 5.  It was clearly the right play last night and I fucked it up.
 
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Posted: #84

For some reason I can't view the sheets, I think it may be my work computer, but which way would you lean on

Oakland vs Tampa
Clev vs Kansas City

 
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Posted: #85
If you are looking to find a -1 line go to this website, it has a calculator for that exact wager.

www.sportsobjective.com


 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

For some reason I can't view the sheets, I think it may be my work computer, but which way would you lean on

Oakland vs Tampa
Clev vs Kansas City


OAK +110
TBR -110

TOTAL:  6.79

(NO LEAN)


CLE --106
KCR +106

TOTAL:  9.52

(NO LEAN)


Both lines look sharp as a tack to me.  I'll be staying away from both games.
 
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Posted: #87
For some reason, Oakland is the favorite on my book (RL is -1.5 for them).
 
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Posted: #88
Great stuff..thanks...bol.
 
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Posted: #89
The Royals are a decent play tonight.  Lowe won his two starts against them giving up 8 and 11 hits respectively.  That's fairly lucky and the balls are starting to fall in lately.  I like their chances.
 
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Posted: #90
what you think about washington today considering two of phils starting outfielders are on a plane to the west coast?
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by aloja27:

what you think about washington today considering two of phils starting outfielders are on a plane to the west coast?

Lean that way, and by the looks of it the oddsmakers are protecting Washington's side a little more than usual (how often do you see Lee at +135?).  I'd say it's Washington or nothing in this game.  For me, it'll be nothing, because I don't feel like fading Cliff Lee today at a 1.5 to 1 return.
 
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Posted: #92
si1ly,
what website do you use for public consensus data?
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by klbtn:

si1ly,
what website do you use for public consensus data?

I don't pay too closely to it.  By now I have a good read of what will be a public play and what won't be without looking at a small sample size of consensus data on the web.  If I'm really curious I'll glance a Covers consensus or Vegas Insider.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Even if you want to say that Tillman is better than Nova.. don't you think that the Yankees offensive advantage as well as bullpen advantage more than makes up for that difference?  Forget who the pitchers are, if you went into this game thinking that the Yankees will win if they outslug the Orioles, don't they have a great chance to do that?

Yanks bats have been a little cold the last week. Compared the starting lineups and pinch hitters from last night and Balt is hitting .264 while Yanks hitting .239 over the last week. Think that Balt game 2 situation I posted earlier is really a significant indicator of this teams tendencies. And they know this is their chance to gain ground on the division leader who is in a weakened state right now. Balt as an away team off a 3 game winning streak this year is 3-0, think they are a live dog tonight.
 
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Posted: #95
Great stuff si1ly! Good luck today!
 
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Posted: #96

Nova is 5.09 in his last 3 starts....i thinki'm gonna stay away from this game.

 

 
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Posted: #97
Darn, my phone won't let me paste the Yankees line up.  
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by WinSeeker:

Darn, my phone won't let me paste the Yankees line up.  


 
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Posted: #99
Thanks Law!  Any further thoughts?
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Trader4:


Yanks bats have been a little cold the last week. Compared the starting lineups and pinch hitters from last night and Balt is hitting .264 while Yanks hitting .239 over the last week. Think that Balt game 2 situation I posted earlier is really a significant indicator of this teams tendencies. And they know this is their chance to gain ground on the division leader who is in a weakened state right now. Balt as an away team off a 3 game winning streak this year is 3-0, think they are a live dog tonight.


Good luck to you on your Baltimore play. 
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