Bumping because I am going to add Marshall tonight in some capacity, whether ML or spread yet I don't know. Earlier the line was +3.5 everywhere, but you couldn't get a +150. Ridiculous how they're squeezing those numbers. I was sure I was going to go with the points, but it looks like ML value might be opening up. I'd never trade 3.5 for less than +165 in any case, so I'll have to see how it breaks down later.
One positive aspect of my new money management system is that it allows me to play freer, which is better for me personally. I can pick a "best bet" to save my life, but could probably hit 55% across the board consistently if forced to play every game. Short stacked, I'd probably have to lay off, as MU is getting shortchanged for an 0-6 team that has no defense. But I got tired of watching "poor value" teams keep winning whenever I passed on them.
Down side of this new money management strategy is that it cost me several thousand dollars yesterday. Had I stuck to my old structure, I would have been damn near back to even. But that doesn't mean it was a mistake -- I recognized that my old strategy was deeply flawed in that it didn't account for the extremes of variability that any handicapper is due to confront given enough time. It's a long term change and no matter what I would have made the change following a bad run.
Posted plays on this thread look pretty good looking back on it. Observation/strategy regarding road favorites seems to have been on the money. I went 3-1 on the road favorites I played, the loser being Nevada. Funny how the "trap" games seem to jump up and bite you, even when you're sure you're getting the value right. Nevada 260 more TY and 15 more FD. USU barely 200 yds offense, but scored 4 TD's. Take note of what I said in my write up about Kevin Robinson. Sure enough, he scores on a 70 yd PR and also returned a KO 45 yards. That guy is as good as you'll see, I tell you. So Robinson and a very costly Lippencott fumble at the end of the third quarter cost them the cover. Hard to say if I had the right side or not in that game. I guess it just depends on your philosophy and betting style. A strictly situational player would have been on USU and could legitimately claim that the game broke just about as he expected, and they did cover.
Other road favorites were USC, Houston, and Florida. Got the -16.5 on USC and -6.5 on UF, of which the latter nearly came in to play. I didn't know the XP rule and I thought sure UK would walk in for two while UF stood around not even trying to defend. How bad a beat would that have been on -6.5?
I ended up 4-4 on ML dog plays and 5-3 point spreads. Army was nice. That's the kind of game I almost always lose, but got lucky as GT decided to have mercy on them. Always consider how a team typically performs in large spread games. Some teams have the MO of putting up numbers and stats, others just like to win and move on. GT is solidly in the second category. Very classy, thank you. Hitting the early line finally paid off too.
Not listed in this thread were Florida and USC (not "official"), Cal (another "fishy line - trap game"), Texas Tech, and SDSU ML.
Texas Tech was a mistake, I guess. Strategy of worrying less about a bad line might have backfired. Maybe I was guilty of a little bit of the specious reasoning so common on this site that a "bad line" can actually be good, but give me enough credit to understand that I never believed "Vegas" was actively conspiring to draw money on Mizzou. I think more fundamentally, I failed to recognize the MU's defensive improvement is legit. I was expecting something akin to the TTU/OSU game. Thought 3.5 was good in a last possession game. My bad. I guess I don't watch enough Big 12 football. Hard to be really dialed in on every conference. Pac10 is another conference I neglect. I guess I must think that because I live in LA I'll automatically be informed, as if by osmosis. Doesn't work. I never even considered Stanford, and that was a ML I should have been on. Just passed the game by, without a serious thought. You have to cap the whole card, people.
redbearde betting on UAB...
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