Quote Originally Posted by prophet777:
I was looking at si1ly's system for any other patterns, so I took a look at the games where the si1ly's system had one team favored more than the actual line (e.g. Team A favored by -5.0 in the power rankings calculation, while favored by only -4.5 in the real vegas odds). I was hoping to find potential ML value in betting those games.
Using these parameters, I found 38 games (since his All-Star post of this system) that fit the bill. Then I separated "si1ly's system plays" and non-system plays to see if I could see any other patterns. I did noticed some trends so--though keep in mind, it's a terribly small sample size (I did this pretty quickly and didn't double-check thoroughly.)
When it says "switch" or "no switch" it means, that there were games where the power ranking calculation resulted in a favored team that wasn't actually favored in the actual betting line. (e.g. Team X favored by -1 via system, but actually an +2 underdog).
si1ly's system play (>=3.5 diff) were 7-7 ATS, 6-8 SU
si1ly's system play (>=3.5 diff, no switch) were 1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU
si1ly's system play (>=3.5 diff, switch or PK) were 6-6, 4-8 SU
Non-Sys Play (<3.5 diff) were 17-6-1 ATS and 19-5 SU
Non-Sys Play (No switch) were 17-5-1 and 19-4 SU
Non-Sys Play (Favored >1.5 in real line) were 14-2-1 and 16-1 SU
Total Plays were 24-13-1 ATS and 25-13 SU.
So far it seems like there is something about the "switch" thing where the predictions become murky, especially in the SU category--that is, maybe the team really isn't the favorite as the calculations suggest.
However, when there is a team actually favored in both (17 games sample size lol), the SU become a lot stronger. Also, those same teams do seem to cover at a higher percentage as suggested by si1ly's rankings, but
For example, today the only example was Cleveland. The system had CLE -2.3, yet the real line was -2, for a 0.3 value (not a system play). Using these trends, maybe you could take both the ATS and money line bet gaining "some" value (they both hit, fwiw).
Unfortunately, it's a terribly small sample size, so it may end up being nothing more than a great run, but I'll keep tracking and see what comes up.
Love to hear anyone's thoughts, especially si1ly's. Maybe something with his power ranking calculations have to do with it.
One of the first things I thought of when I saw si1ly's predictive model was, I wonder if it could be used the same way that Beaverfan did in college basketball this year. He would look at Kenpom's predictive model and everywhere that Vegas had a big difference from Kenpom, he would side with Vegas. He had a real nice run early and mid season but, as Kenpom's numbers got sharper, the results regressed. Still, overall a pretty good system Beaverfan had. Last night, in most of the games, si1ly was fairly close to Vegas' numbers except in two games, Lakers and Raptors. If you would have sided with Vegas in both games, you would have won. Obviously, this is a very small sample but, it would be something to monitor and see if we have something here. Example, in the Lakers game: I am sure that Vegas uses compicated statistical formulas to help set lines and they should have also known that the Lakers statistically were better than the Celtics yet they set the line much lower than the stats indicated. They were hoping that the bettors would like the Lakers with the shorter line at home. Lakers win but don't cover.
I think this is something we should keep an eye on to see if we can exploit this. Thanks to si1ly for coming up with this great predictive model!!!
everybody.
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