NCAA Football Week Four (YTD 14-5)

YTD Record: 14-5 / 73.68% / 13.10 units
Texas A&M Record: 3-0 / 100.00% / 4.51 units

I am getting started early this week with my first locked in play:

Texas A&M -3 +100 (3 units):
At first glance, some may think this is a homer pick, but trust me, that is not the case.  Let me just say that I have the utmost respect for the Oklahoma State offense.  In fact, they do scare the heck out of me.  But, with that said, there defense is a bit of a train wreck.  Some may say that the offense has been putting up so many points that maybe the defense is playing more prevent, but good defenses do not give up over 410 yards per game against lesser competition as Oklahoma State has thus far.  While, I know it is early, the three offenses that Oklahoma State has played thus far are ranked 38th, 54th and 114th in total offense.  So, it isn't like these are offensive juggernauts.  Meanwhile, Texas A&M will bring the best offense that the Cowboys will have faced to date with a balance of run and pass.  Not only is it the best offense they have faced to date, but it is an offense that has yet to go to page 2 of the playbook this year.  Against Idaho for example, they ran only three different run plays.  Further, on the flip side of the ball, while no one would confuse A&M's defense with Alabama or one of the other elite defenses, they are much better than what the Cowboys are bringing in.  Add-in the fact that this game is at Kyle Field (which is always a tough place to play), and I just think the Ags win this one by 10-12 points.  I could see this one being something like 42-31. 

Whoooooooop!

night game at Kyle Field, gonna be electric and very loud

Weeden is inclined to throw picks, the Ags need to get pressure and force his hand

best of luck

I was leaning the same way, but wanted to see your thoughts first!

I agree, go with the better D & home field advantage!

Great start to the year, keep it up!

BOL this week Aggie  

constant chanting, cheering, standing, the works

It is not actually a night game, which pisses me off as ABC decided to go to WVU-LSU instead.  With that said, the crowd should still be electric.

Thanks Arid.  I can't wait.  I am sure we will take some hits at first (in football only as we should be fine in all other sports), but hopefully we can get caught up to you guys after a couple of years.

Second locked in play:

Arizona State -3 +100 (1 unit)
Last week, I faded ASU against Illinois, but that was primarily because they were just in a bad spot.  This is still a good team with a lot of talent.  They should be able to regroup at home against a decent (but not great) Trojan team.

Texas A&M -3 +100 (3 units)
Arizona State -3 +100 (1 unit)

Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

Aggie, I wasn't able to get -3 with A&M, which was where I was hoping to land. What are your thoughts on how high to take them and whether or not the line will get back. I said I wouldn't touch it at 3.5, but I also feel like it's the right side. Going back and forth trying to figure out how/whether to play this one, and any insight is appreciated. Also leaning on the Sun Devils. 

Where is the line at now?  If 3.5, I would buy the hook.  I likely would play it up to 5 or so.  I think Oklahoma State is a good team, but given the way we lost last year and the fact that the majority of those guys are back, I think we will be looking for revenge in this one.  I still think the Ags win by 10 points or so, so take that for what it is worth.

Adding:

Wyoming +24 -120 (2 units)
I didn't notice this the first time I was going through the lines, but after going through the games a second time, this one stuck out.  First off, let me just say that I feel there is no way Nebraska comes away with a loss in this one.  But, I do think this is a bad spot for them.  First off, Nebraska is undefeated, but they haven't been real impressive in getting to that point.  Second, Wyoming is not an easy place to play.  With the high altitude teams that aren't used to it can struggle a bit.  Third, Wyoming is off to a good start going 3-0 thus far.  Finally, Nebraska has Wisconsin on deck and thus we might have a classic lookahead spot hear.

I was leaning over on A&M/Ok St...

arz st-3

tx a&m -3

cant trust nebraska for or against

I initially was thinking about 72-73 points, which would put it slightly over.  But, after thinking about it more, I would go under.  I could see this being a 38-28 type game, which would put us 4 points under the number.  The reason why I am changing my tune is my thinking about how A&M would play this one.  I expect them to grind it out and try to control the line of scrimmage right from the start.  In turn, this should run the clock.  Now, both teams will score, but if one team slows it down with an over/under this high, it is tough to hit it.

I don't disagree, but I like Wyoming moreso than disliking Nebraska.

Adding:

Cincinnati -7 -125 (1 unit)
I bought the hook, but hopefully I won't need it.  I don't have a lot to say about this one other than the fact that I love the situation with this being a home revenge game for Cincy.  Further, it is a thursday night game, and I can't help but like the home team.