I hate titles as much as the next guy, but what else do you call a play that you like the most of any other plays all year, and you really don't forsee yourself liking another play this much the remainder of the MLB season? Sorry, I couldn't resist, but there is reason...
The good news is this...this is the last play of the evening, with a lot of early games being played, so if you are reading this tonight after you have suffered a down day, which I have been reading many of posts about lately...and if you trust my analysis, bet this game and break even, or even go up on the day.
First things first...when I scanned all the possible matchups and lines early this morning, this game was the one that popped off the charts. The Atlanta Braves won their third game in a row and are a major league-best 14-3 since July 24. They're averaging 6.2 runs in those victories. They have taken the series from Philly and now have guaranteed to take the series here from the Mets. I understand how books work and so on and so forth, but deep down inside I believe in little traps that books place out there, almost like having tomorrow's MLB scores today. Take tonight's game for example. The Braves are the hottest team in baseball with a SP in Ben Sheets, 4-1, 1.41 ERA, going against one of the coldest teams in the MLB, the NY Mets. The great thing is this...tonight's game will be broadcast on ESPN, which means there will be extra betting interest on this game...especially when you take into consideration what I talked about at the front of this...almost all games will be done by the time this game starts. Most people looking at this game are seeing the small price you have to pay for Sheets and the Braves tonight. What they are not seeing is the depth of this game.
Let's start with Ben Sheets. The Braves take a huge flyer on this guy, and if you take a look at his basic numbers, it looks like they hit the jackpot. If you are a Braves fan, and have watched his 5 starts this year, you will probably side with me when I say his numbers are not a true indication of how he is pitching. Sheets has a troubling groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 38%/29%/33%. Note the high line-drive rate of 29%. Sheet's strand rate at this moment is a whopping 89%, and this comes without recording one SO in his last start. He is getting outs, but if you have watched the games, they are very loud outs. This is not the same Ben Sheets as the early 2000's, when he was healthy. But right now if you just look at his basic numbers, wins, loses, ERA, you think immediately you are getting a bargin with the small price you have to pay to play him and the Braves tonight. Wrong. Onto the Mets starter...
Jonathan Niese is a very solid SP in the MLB. Atlanta is 9-13 against lefties on the road this year, and if you take a look at their hitting numbers it indicates the same. Niese is no push-over lefty here either. He is not a big name, but again, if you look deeper at his numbers, you would realize that this guy is having a very good year, and has only been getting better over the course of his young 4 year career. His four-year control numbers are only getting better, and he has only walked 36 batters this year. His WHIP is 1.17, backed with an ERA of 3.72. You are getting a consistent starter here with consistent numbers only getting better slowly over the course of his 4 year career. So while at first glance you might be inclined to take the larger name (Sheets) over Niese, and the better team (Braves) over Mets, I would urge you to reconsider your position on this game. I am playing the Mets tonight, and I playing them with my largest wager of the year. Good luck, and I welcome any discussion.
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