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7/30 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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7-30





 
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Brutal card tomorrow.  Not much jumps out at me.  Going to sleep on it before I make my mind up about anything.  No leans yet.
 
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telling me the folder is empty
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Brutal card tomorrow.  Not much jumps out at me.  Going to sleep on it before I make my mind up about anything.  No leans yet.




agreed
 
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As a Marlins fan I would say it is pretty safe to fade them tomorrow and the rest of the series.
 
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Rickey Romero going tomorrow 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

Rickey Romero going tomorrow 


And he's gonna make me money
 
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Detroit looks pretty good at plus money.  Are you worried about their recent offensive woes?  Scherzer clearly the better pitcher, and both offenses seem to cancel each other out against righties.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Brutal card tomorrow.  Not much jumps out at me.  Going to sleep on it before I make my mind up about anything.  No leans yet.


I know your model favors Toronto but I like the Mariners tomorrow.  Iwakuma has thrown a couple of solid starts against the Rays and Yankees while Romero has been pitching like garbage.  The Mariners are playing well right now and I think they keep it going. 

I also like the Rays even though it's a harder match-up with how well the Athletics have played.  The numbers show Griffin is due for a little bit of regression with a FIP of 3.57 and an xFIP of 3.93.  Price is dealing and I think they win a close game.
 
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Rickey has lost his previous six starts sporting a solid 10.48 ERA in that span (33 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings).


 
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I can't help but like the Tigers. Boston will arrive home early in the morning coming off a big series in the Bronx. I like Fielder with the short fence in right and Cabrera with the monster in left to utilize the dimensions. Boston used their BP a little bit tonight and even Padilla was warming up for 4 innings. Fister on the other hand went 8 strong and Valverde closed up shop in the 9th. I'll take a flier on Detroit at even $ with a shitty looking card tomorrow...

GL to all. TY agian Si1ly

GL w/ your plays

 
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Quote Originally Posted by spidermonkey224:



And he's gonna make me money


 
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:





Don't wanna hijack Si1ly's thread.  I posted some info in my Sunday thread as to why I think Romero steps up tomorrow.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:



I know your model favors Toronto but I like the Mariners tomorrow.  Iwakuma has thrown a couple of solid starts against the Rays and Yankees while Romero has been pitching like garbage.  The Mariners are playing well right now and I think they keep it going. 

I also like the Rays even though it's a harder match-up with how well the Athletics have played.  The numbers show Griffin is due for a little bit of regression with a FIP of 3.57 and an xFIP of 3.93.  Price is dealing and I think they win a close game.

That line looks pretty tight.  Slight lean to Tampa Bay, but I will almost surely pass on this game.  Those FIP and xFIP are still pretty decent (#58 and #77 respectively) - that's 2/3 man material.  A solid starter.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMan:

Detroit looks pretty good at plus money.  Are you worried about their recent offensive woes?  Scherzer clearly the better pitcher, and both offenses seem to cancel each other out against righties.

Yeah, agreed.  Tigers are on my radar.  Lots to like about this match-up.  Lean over too.
 
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Any thoughts on Rickey or the M's v Jays line, Si1ly?
 
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do you like betting on anything in the olympics?
thanks for all the hard work, si1ly.  i'm a daily reader who doesn't post much, but always appreciate your efforts.

 
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Thanks si1ly!  The amount of RH batters in the TEX/LAA game looks like Oswalt should have a better night of it to me.  I also love the over in Minnesota.

Look forward to your thoughts! 


 
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

Any thoughts on Rickey or the M's v Jays line, Si1ly?

Leaning on Toronto because their offensive probability is so much higher than Seattle.  Might also consider an under play since my model has the game at 7.64 despite the two SP's ERA's adding up to 10.04.  I'll post more thoughts during the day tomorrow when I get a chance to dig deeper on these games.  Calling it a night for now.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


That line looks pretty tight.  Slight lean to Tampa Bay, but I will almost surely pass on this game.  Those FIP and xFIP are still pretty decent (#58 and #77 respectively) - that's 2/3 man material.  A solid starter.


I don't blame you.  There aren't going to be great plays every day.  It's hard to tell from a short sample size how good Griffin will be.  Having said that, the data tells me he's probably more of a #3 with that atrocious GB/FB ratio.  He's also very weak against righties so far and the Rays are 17th against them as opposed to 24th against lefties.  I just can't back the A's after seeing Chen own them and Price is certainly a better lefty than he is.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by jkirkpleasant:

do you like betting on anything in the olympics?
thanks for all the hard work, si1ly.  i'm a daily reader who doesn't post much, but always appreciate your efforts.


I probably won't bet on the Olympics mostly because I just don't follow those sports much.  If I bet on any of the games, it would be straight gambling.  I try and avoid putting myself into that situation.  The old saying, if you don't know the answer, don't bet on it.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Thanks si1ly!  The amount of RH batters in the TEX/LAA game looks like Oswalt should have a better night of it to me.  I also love the over in Minnesota.

Look forward to your thoughts! 



I just wish Texas was swinging the bats a little better.
 
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Over in Minnesota looks good, I agree.  Two hot offenses, two pitchers due to regress, two favorable offensive L/R splits.
 
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What do you think about the Angels/Rangers? Santana gets bombed (should be some UFO sightings) Trout is questionable (knee)
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I just wish Texas was swinging the bats a little better.


That's my only concern...they had a dismal July.  But I'm a glass half full kinda guy and I just can't see that lineup sucking forever.  Texas is a stock I'm about to buy low on. 
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