Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
29 - 21 @ 58% for +5.53 Units
Mon, 04/25
#1: Chicago Cubs -127
Garza is quickly becoming an 'advanced stats' stud. He has the best FIP (1.26), the best xFIP (1.92), the LUCKIEST BABIP of .471, and the highest E-F of 3.48 to the positive. With his 12.4 K/9 ratio and 4.25 K/BB ratio, as well as the fact that he hasn't given up any HR's this year, Garza is the type of a pitcher that is worthy of being backed going forward. He's going up against Rogers today, who has a mediocre 1.57 K/BB ratio and 1.69 HR/9 ratio. HIs FIP of 5.61 (#107) and xFIP of 4.92 (#108), coupled with a somewhat lucky BABAIP of .275, indicates some 'regression to the mean' is expected further. He is coming off an outing where he gave up 8 ER's in only 3 innings pitched, and I expect him to be pretty hittable today as well. Rockies are 8-23 in the last 31 meetings in Chicago, and I'll back a team with a much better pitcher on the mound.
#2: OVER 9.5 TOR/TEX
Drabek is someone who continues to struggle with command issues, having a 5.63 BB/9 ratio on the season. He has an FIP of 4.55 and xFIP of 4.38, with an E-F of -1.55 (12th highest to the negative) indicating that a regression to the negative is expected. He's been pretty lucky so far with a .266 BABIP and against this Rangers squad, I expect him to get 'rocked' tonight. Colby Lewis is another pitcher who is struggling with his command with a 3.18 BB/9. In addition he has now given up 5 HR's in 3 starts and sports an FIP of 6.81 (one of the highest in the majors) and xFIP of 4.70. His E-F of -1.0 and a very lucky BABIP of .240 indicates that regression to the negative is in order. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays' last 6 games after scoring 2 or less runs in their previous one. I see this one being a high-scoring affair.
29 - 21 @ 58% for +5.53 Units
Mon, 04/25
#1: Chicago Cubs -127
Garza is quickly becoming an 'advanced stats' stud. He has the best FIP (1.26), the best xFIP (1.92), the LUCKIEST BABIP of .471, and the highest E-F of 3.48 to the positive. With his 12.4 K/9 ratio and 4.25 K/BB ratio, as well as the fact that he hasn't given up any HR's this year, Garza is the type of a pitcher that is worthy of being backed going forward. He's going up against Rogers today, who has a mediocre 1.57 K/BB ratio and 1.69 HR/9 ratio. HIs FIP of 5.61 (#107) and xFIP of 4.92 (#108), coupled with a somewhat lucky BABAIP of .275, indicates some 'regression to the mean' is expected further. He is coming off an outing where he gave up 8 ER's in only 3 innings pitched, and I expect him to be pretty hittable today as well. Rockies are 8-23 in the last 31 meetings in Chicago, and I'll back a team with a much better pitcher on the mound.
#2: OVER 9.5 TOR/TEX
Drabek is someone who continues to struggle with command issues, having a 5.63 BB/9 ratio on the season. He has an FIP of 4.55 and xFIP of 4.38, with an E-F of -1.55 (12th highest to the negative) indicating that a regression to the negative is expected. He's been pretty lucky so far with a .266 BABIP and against this Rangers squad, I expect him to get 'rocked' tonight. Colby Lewis is another pitcher who is struggling with his command with a 3.18 BB/9. In addition he has now given up 5 HR's in 3 starts and sports an FIP of 6.81 (one of the highest in the majors) and xFIP of 4.70. His E-F of -1.0 and a very lucky BABIP of .240 indicates that regression to the negative is in order. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays' last 6 games after scoring 2 or less runs in their previous one. I see this one being a high-scoring affair.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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