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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Some Baseball Thoughts/Monday writeups/ And a Thank you
G8RB8 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 3/31/2008 1:31:58 PM
Damn m.e., I sure hope to see you still post more often than not.  Yours was one of few threads I read everyday.
 
GL to your new road in life.
 
 
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#52
Posted: 3/31/2008 1:41:19 PM
Look forward to another great year and reading you input ME.  Good luck to all  
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#53
Posted: 3/31/2008 1:41:42 PM
new to this site and just getting into betting baseball. i wish i was here for your best days, but i am grateful i even got to read this writeup. thanks so much for the info i will have your rules saved on my desktop. 
GL with everything 
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#54
Posted: 3/31/2008 1:58:48 PM
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#55
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:04:24 PM
Sucks to see you go bud  I don't play much, if any, baseball, but I do miss the discussions in the NBA forum. You're a solid guy, and I'm sure you'll be successful in whatever you decide to do
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#56
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:06:32 PM
Thanks for the input ME hope you have very profitable season.
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#57
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:13:00 PM
Just keep doing what you did today. Post & pretend you're playing. Thanks for the good writes
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#58
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:46:08 PM
escort, you sound so much like me it is ridiculous.  I am working on my Finance degree, and would like to do some financial planning myself eventually.  I have supported myself for 3 years on playing poker, and to a lesser extent a little bit of sports betting.  I will say that sports betting is a lot more stressful than playing poker, and we both know playing poker is extremely stressful, so that's really saying something.

I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you use SI to glean a bit of info on the games.  I began using SI a bit during the NCAA tourney, and found it to be a useful tool.

Sad to see you go, but hope you're still around plenty as I love reading your writeups.  Good luck in whatever you do.
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#59
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:51:45 PM
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#60
Posted: 3/31/2008 3:37:37 PM
ME or anyone else -- Need help...What is SI?
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#61
Posted: 3/31/2008 4:06:56 PM
great thread male escort....you said you used SI (which i assume is sportsinsights) to gauge the flow of money, but you said you need to know how to use it....could you give me some insight as to what that means...thanks a lot
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#62
Posted: 3/31/2008 5:28:15 PM
  Good luck
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#63
Posted: 3/31/2008 11:50:54 PM
ME
i haven't posted or played in quite some time now.  but when i did either, baseball was always my favorite, if not my best.  you and i established a very nice repoir.  we often liked the same games and strategies.  you taught me a lot.  i appreciate the mention...it was with some very good company.  thanks for remembering me.
 
i gave playing & posting up for all of the same reasons.  believe me it was tough but my life is so much better without this.  i think the only right way to do this is full time..or close to it.  it consumes you and effects your relationships with everyone around you and a lot of other things that are more important, at least to me. 
 
this is only my view.  i know there are so many successful players in this forum that can pull it off.  i just wasn't one of them.  i'm an all or nothing guy.  i wish you the best in whatever you decide to do in the future.  putting the same commitment, thought and intelligence that you contributed here will make being successful a lot easier.  take care of yourself.  i'm sure i'll see you in here again one of these days.  all the best, my friend. 
 
meshu
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#64
Posted: 4/1/2008 1:14:10 AM
m e thank you for opening day insight.\
 
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#65
Posted: 4/1/2008 1:45:55 AM

Thanks to all for the kind words going forward... I didn't want this to turn into a drama filled thread but I guess it kind of has..

Lets discuss Sports insights a little bit

1.) SI is a tool, it does not tell you who is going to win the game... The public wins. Just because 80% is on one side does not mean the 20% side is going to win!

2.) Look at the smart money angle.... If a team starts of as a        +140 underdog and quickly drops to +130/+125 sharp money has hit the underdog.  People on here can dispute the relevance of sharps, but they do exist.. They are the customers that books allow to bet at the lines as soon/or before they release lines to the public...

3.) Do not get caught in the steam.... Lines are sometimes artificially inflated so the big dolllars can by back for double (or more) before gametime... If you see a cubs/Yankees/Red sox line inflate like crazy, it is probably a steam move... Sharps rarely (if ever) are laying moderate to big chalk... If one of these lines moves from -120 to -140 be very wary of a buy back... You might see a huge drop back to the low -120's before gametime... These steam moves and buy backs usually happen in primetime events...

4.) If there is falling out in the price before game time, most likely it is sharp money... I am a firm believer that books take positions on games... Square money is not moving lines... Of course books would love to have an arbitrage and have 50-50 action but that is not realistic... That is why they let sharps bet lines early for small dollar ammounts... 

5.) Learn to how the money flows.... Yankees/cubs/Red sox are almost always overpriced.... Orioles/D-rays/Kansas city/and washington will almost always be underpriced... Markets tend to correct themselves when baseball becomes the only game in town...

6.) learn money flow on your own... The above statements are tools that I have used in the past... This season I have a strong feeling that the Orioles will be the most undervalued team in the bigs... The Cubs and Red sox will probably be the most overvalued... However, each individual should chart money flow on a daily basis... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly overpriced (best guess Tigers)... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly underpriced ( good guess Pirates/cincy)...

I have had a few coctails so this should be a good base line... If I could elaborate more in depth I should be around for a little bit as I have a genuine passion to help others... Eventually this thread will die, but as long as I am around I don't mind to help...

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#66
Posted: 4/1/2008 1:49:19 AM
Are you going to be posting up write ups on a regular basis?
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#67
Posted: 4/1/2008 1:52:49 AM

go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...

Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....

Best of luck to all!

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#68
Posted: 4/1/2008 9:45:13 AM
yeah, i noticed you killed it with the card today, great info as well
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#69
Posted: 4/1/2008 10:38:53 AM
 
Wow you do know your garbage...
 
about the picks but even more about sports investing......
 
Goodluck staying away from betting
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#70
Posted: 4/1/2008 10:50:45 AM
excellent work and great insight. i do better in bases than any other sport and now with your insight, i will be able to do much better this year. thanks and good luck.
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#71
Posted: 4/1/2008 11:23:24 AM
Thanks for the valuable write-up and I wish you all the best in your future indeavors.
 
Great call on yesterdays games.
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#72
Posted: 4/1/2008 4:31:06 PM
Thanks ME  very interesting
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#73
Posted: 4/1/2008 5:47:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by male escort:

go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...

Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....

Best of luck to all!

 GREAT JOB......You'll be back this STUFF gets in your blood and you can't watch a game without something on it. Im new with you guys but Ive been Gamblin LONGER than most of you guys are old. Always respect a man who has SOMETHING to say that makes SENSE. GL ME see u when you come back, hope its SOON. 

" If INCOME doesn't match OUTGO, Your UPKEEP will be your DOWNFALL."

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#74
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:04:20 AM
Bump.  This advice helped a lot back in '08.  

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