Under & Over Valued Pitchers

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Under & Over Valued Pitchers
mylife23 PM mylife23
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Posted: 3/25/2012 5:20:10 PM
good stuff
Spartacus10 PM Spartacus10
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Posted: 4/2/2012 3:41:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

With overvalued pitchers, it's easy to throw in CC, or Doc Halladay, or Verlander, and maybe a couple others, who will 7 out of 10 games open up @ -200 or higher.

For me, I will never lay that much juice.

Some good undervalue pitchers  -  basically anybody on the Oakland A's roster.  Since their offense is pathetic 5 days out of the week, there best pitcher (like Cahill the 1st half of the season) would be a +120 dog or more.  You also had Gio Gonzales, Brandon McCarthy and even Morosco...

The same with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, too.  This year, they won't be as undervalued with the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins...

This year, I think some overvalued pitchers will be:
* C.J. Wilson
* Yovani Gallardo
* Jair Jurrens
* Brandon Morrow (espically @ home)

This year, I think some undervalued pitchers will be:
* Brandon McCarthy
* Cory Luebeke
* Mat Latos
* Jeremey Hellickson

Completely agree with Morrow unless this happens to be his break through year. Even last year against some mediocre opponents he was laying -150 to -170, which is certainly an inflated line. Morrow is a tough one though because when he is on his game he is a strikeout machine, and as close to it comes as unhittable, but when he's not on his game, he can give up 8 runs in a couple of innings.
BigJeezy70 PM BigJeezy70
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Posted: 4/2/2012 7:33:07 PM

ALWAYS fade AJ Burnet.  I don't care where he's pitching.  Fade him and make $$$


monroekelly21 PM monroekelly21
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Posted: 4/2/2012 11:06:31 PM
Jeremy Hellickson is very likely candidate for a serious regression.  Very high FIP and xFIP relative to ERA, a poor K/9 and K/BB, high strand rate, low GB%, and very favorable BABIP (.223).  

Looking at his underlying stats from 2011, it is almost unbelievable he kept his actual ERA under 3.  

I would look to bet the over in his first few starts.

I definitely like Cory Luebke.  His stellar run of starts from last season seems quite sustainable.  

Brandon Beachy looks to possibly be an underrated commodity, as he has limited name recognition, but he does play for a pretty public team.

I think the Mets Over might hold some value early in the season.  I think Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are very underrated, plus they moved the fences in at Citi Field.
SlinginDope PM SlinginDope
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Posted: 4/2/2012 11:27:22 PM
Johan Santana will probably be over valued based off his reputation. Given that, Jon Niese might see some good value on his back side through out the year.

Jake Peavy is likely a favorite no matter what just based upon his contract.

The Indians Josh Tomlin doesn't overpower hitters, but he is a strike thrower and has a career record of 18-11.
lewlew PM lewlew
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Posted: 4/2/2012 11:44:26 PM

you all fools. most will be valued korrectly!

have fun yall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

RJ89 PM RJ89
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Posted: 4/3/2012 1:23:07 AM

I think Adam Wainwright might be overvalued to start the year. He has had a great ERA this spring, so I think many people will assume he is back to his old self. However, he has had a lower K-rate and a lot of times it takes Tommy-Johns players some time to get back to how they were.

I was looking to fade Pineda, especially at home (because of his high FB%), but now it looks like he won't pitch any time soon.

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Posted: 4/3/2012 1:33:21 AM
A couple have already been stated, but some guys that could really surprise

Madison Bumgarner (dark horse CY candidate imo)
Henderson Alvarez TOR
Juan Nicasio COL
Tom Milone OAK
Brandon McCarthy OAK
Matt Harrison TEX
Brian Matusz BAL

These guys probably won't post high W totals, but their ratios I think could be very good.
RJ89 PM RJ89
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Posted: 4/3/2012 2:00:34 AM

FBNK, you might want to check out my thread on the subject: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101311295

I obviously agree about Milone, Nicasio, and Alvarez.

I don't really think there will be much value on McCarthy and Bumgarner since everyone already knows they are solid, though I do agree Bumgarner could take another big step forward.

I think Harrison is definitely an interesting name because he really improved as the season went on. He’s definitely a guy I will add to my watchlist.

LanceLogan PM LanceLogan
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Posted: 4/3/2012 2:05:39 AM
Because teams like the Pirates and Royals will play .500 ball or better for the first little while we can probaby make plays on starts by Jeff Karstens and Danny Duffy in the +150 range. The Twins will likely  be better this year and under the radar, might find value on Scott Baker starts, darn Liriano.
Spartacus10 PM Spartacus10
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Posted: 4/3/2012 1:09:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

you all fools. most will be valued korrectly!

have fun yall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

How ironic is it that you call us fools, yet don't have the level of intelligence to understand how to spell correctly. Try contributing to the conversation rather than shitting on it. Your just another pointless troll on covers that contributes absolutely nothing.
radunham PM radunham
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Posted: 4/3/2012 1:25:07 PM
Every singe Cubs pitcher is Overvauled
iceman67 PM iceman67
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Posted: 4/5/2012 5:17:40 PM

Over/Under valued is more of a game by game thing.

I'll give you my top SP's who will outperform their general season expectations

#1 C. Sale   #2 M. Latos  #3 C.J. Wilson  #4 Greinke 

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